John Bell Edwards vs Donald Trump

[OSR stands with Israel]

Who wins with what map


Here's what I think:

John Bell Edwards/Michael Bennett 368
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 170


 

[OSR stands with Israel]

Flip NH, LA, WV, MO, and AZ, and then you've got a somewhat realistic map

John Bell Edwards is the governor of LA and due to that LA goes to Edwards. Also MO , and WV are states tailor made for dems like Edwards thus he wins. On the other hand he loses NH due to his pro life stance , and he does probably lose AZ so I will flip that.


NV, and CO may also flip to Trump but Bennett keeps them in dem column

[OSR stands with Israel]

How does Bel Edwards win Louisiana + West Virginia and not win Georgia and Texas (home state factor is not that powerful)?

Simple he is the governor of LA , and as long as he is popular there he will win the state. Plus Edwards is basically a Bill Clinton Democrat (the 90s Clinton ) and appeals to those types of voters so with Edwards the map basically reverts back to 1996(with the exception of AK, TN )

[OSR stands with Israel]

JBE would never win the Democratic nomination. And if he somehow did, he wouldn't win states like LA, MO or WV.

He is the governor from LA

[OSR stands with Israel]

Simple he is the governor of LA , and as long as he is popular there he will win the state.

This gentleman wants to have a word with you:

Long was never the Democratic nominee

[OSR stands with Israel]

Simple he is the governor of LA , and as long as he is popular there he will win the state.

This gentleman wants to have a word with you:

Long was never the Democratic nominee

It's Al Smith...

Al smith lost nationally by 18 points, and only lost New York by 2.5 points


That means New York PVI was 15.5 points more democratic than nation

In 1924 Coolidge won Nationally by 25 , and New York by 26 so it's PVI was 1 point more GOP than nation



That's a pretty big swing

[OSR stands with Israel]

Simple he is the governor of LA , and as long as he is popular there he will win the state.

This gentleman wants to have a word with you:

Long was never the Democratic nominee

It's Al Smith...

Al smith lost nationally by 18 points, and only lost New York by 2.5 points


That means New York PVI was 15.5 points more democratic than nation

In 1924 Coolidge won Nationally by 25 , and New York by 26 so it's PVI was 1 point more GOP than nation



That's a pretty big swing

Smith was the Dukakis of his day.  There were signs in 1988 that the whole Northeast was ready to shift into the Democratic column for good, and that happened in 1992.

People forget that the Democrats fell so far to the point where, literally, no single state was considered a sure thing for the Democrats.  That's how bad off they were going into 1988.

I believe that MA , MN , HI ,RI , and WV were considered safe dem states in 1988