2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[Pollster]

Did Ryan Costello draw this map?

[Roll Roons]

So Cartwright gets completely screwed.

Looks like there are five Safe D seats: Four in SEPA and one in Pittsburgh.

PA-06 (ChesCo, Berks and Lebanon), PA-07 (Lehigh Valley) and PA-17 (Pittsburgh suburbs/exurbs) look swingy.

PA-01 (Bucks) should be a swing district on paper, but it's not really one in practice. And we all know exactly why that is.

Everything else should be solidly R.

[ctherainbow]

Well this map is totally gonna survive a trip through the courts.  Uh-huh.  Yup.

😂😂😂

Sadly though, I have zero doubt that the Commonwealth Court will try to stall out the appeal so that this upcoming election is run under these maps.  Which likely means the GOP picks up Lamb’s open seat and knocks off Cartwright, Houlahan, and Wild, for a 12R/5D delegation.

[GALeftist]

Well this map is totally gonna survive a trip through the courts.  Uh-huh.  Yup.

😂😂😂

Sadly though, I have zero doubt that the Commonwealth Court will try to stall out the appeal so that this upcoming election is run under these maps.  Which likely means the GOP picks up Lamb’s open seat and knocks off Cartwright, Houlahan, and Wild, for a 12R/5D delegation.

I don't think this is possible. Tom Wolf will probably veto it and punt it to the PASC.

[ctherainbow]

Well this map is totally gonna survive a trip through the courts.  Uh-huh.  Yup.

😂😂😂

Sadly though, I have zero doubt that the Commonwealth Court will try to stall out the appeal so that this upcoming election is run under these maps.  Which likely means the GOP picks up Lamb’s open seat and knocks off Cartwright, Houlahan, and Wild, for a 12R/5D delegation.

I don't think this is possible. Tom Wolf will probably veto it and punt it to the PASC.

Wolf will 100% veto, so if it gets through the Commonwealth Court before the filing deadline in early March, then yeah, we should end up with a fair map, because the PASC is relatively well versed in mapping at this point.

[Stuart98]

the **** is this ****

[lfromnj]

Yeah the idiots decided to focus on 0 township split its seems instead of just compactness. Obviously PA06 going into Lebanon is quite a reach but it doesn't have to be that ugly.

[ctherainbow]

the **** is this ****

*gives Utah a hug*  First time?

[Kung Fu Kenny]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1468653648372711433?s=20

I literally lol'd when I saw this map. Wolf will veto this thankfully.

[lfromnj]

the **** is this ****

A GOP map that places minimal township splits over compactness which is idiotic as it seems even more gerrymandered than it needs to look. For example PA06 goes too far north and the border between PA05 and PA06 looks really gerrymandered but an optimal GOP gerrymander would take in the city of Coatesville into the 5th. Instead they just take some random Chester towns next to it so I can assume the extremely odd shape there is more due to the 0 township split rather than a micro gerrymander.

[Sol]

What did the Harrisburg area ever do to the PAGOP? The lines in that corner of the state somehow manage to be the ugliest despite it being one of the most easy to draw as safe R places in the state.

[GALeftist]

Well this map is totally gonna survive a trip through the courts.  Uh-huh.  Yup.

😂😂😂

Sadly though, I have zero doubt that the Commonwealth Court will try to stall out the appeal so that this upcoming election is run under these maps.  Which likely means the GOP picks up Lamb’s open seat and knocks off Cartwright, Houlahan, and Wild, for a 12R/5D delegation.

I don't think this is possible. Tom Wolf will probably veto it and punt it to the PASC.

Wolf will 100% veto, so if it gets through the Commonwealth Court before the filing deadline in early March, then yeah, we should end up with a fair map, because the PASC is relatively well versed in mapping at this point.

Well my point is that if it's vetoed it doesn't become law, so I don't see how elections could ever be held under this map, unless I'm ignorant of some quirk of Pennsylvania law.

[Oryxslayer]

Well this map is totally gonna survive a trip through the courts.  Uh-huh.  Yup.

😂😂😂

Sadly though, I have zero doubt that the Commonwealth Court will try to stall out the appeal so that this upcoming election is run under these maps.  Which likely means the GOP picks up Lamb’s open seat and knocks off Cartwright, Houlahan, and Wild, for a 12R/5D delegation.

I don't think this is possible. Tom Wolf will probably veto it and punt it to the PASC.

Wolf will 100% veto, so if it gets through the Commonwealth Court before the filing deadline in early March, then yeah, we should end up with a fair map, because the PASC is relatively well versed in mapping at this point.

I mean it'll have to, cause with Wolf's veto there probably will be no congressional plan in place for said elections. With that in mind, this map has just as much chance of becoming electoral reality as the plans drawn by forum users.

[lfromnj]

What did the Harrisburg area ever do to the PAGOP? The lines in that corner of the state somehow manage to be the ugliest despite it being one of the most easy to draw as safe R places in the state.

Lancaster/York power. Chairman is from York and Lancaster GOP was really not happy about the 2010 splits which was part of the reason why the GOP had to bribe Brady. The Lebanon county split seems to be  0 township split as well instead of compactness. So therefore Lancaster won't take any part of York nor vice versa.

[Stuart98]

This map was apparently created by Pennsylvania redistricting activist Amanda Holt, though oddly it's missing from her website, unlike 4 other plans she submitted.

Currently uploading it into DRA, will post once I have it uploaded for further analysis.

[lfromnj]

Yup seems for example they could just draw this in PA 05 and PA06, makes PA06 a bit more right wing while being infinitely more compact.  I am not a huge stickler about compactness but going for 0 township splits is nearly just as dumb. Infact , thinking about it going into Lebanon isn't really such a huge partisan crime for PA06 as expanding into Berks would probably be the same effect.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

So Cartwright gets completely screwed.

Looks like there are five Safe D seats: Four in SEPA and one in Pittsburgh.

PA-06 (ChesCo, Berks and Lebanon), PA-07 (Lehigh Valley) and PA-17 (Pittsburgh suburbs/exurbs) look swingy.

PA-01 (Bucks) should be a swing district on paper, but it's not really one in practice. And we all know exactly why that is.

Everything else should be solidly R.

I saw a DRA map that had that said:

1st: Biden +5
6th: Biden +8
7th: Biden +1 (probably a GOP PVI then)
8th: Trump +8
17th: Trump +5

The others should be pretty safe.  So, it's 9-8 Trump but could go 11-6 or 12-5 in 2022.

[Stuart98]

DRA link.

8D-9R by Pres 2020, 7D-10R by Pres 2016.

[lfromnj]

http://amandae.com/

Oh its actually some actual activist who proposed it and not just a GOP consultant. She was even part of the 2018 lawsuit?

[Stuart98]

http://amandae.com/

Oh its actually some actual activist who proposed it and not just a GOP consultant. She was even part of the 2018 lawsuit?

Seems like it was some prototype that she pursued solely to get as close to zero deviation as possible and subsequently abandoned. Also note that it's using official census population deviation - I thought PA legally has to use prison population reallocated numbers?

[lfromnj]

http://amandae.com/

Oh its actually some actual activist who proposed it and not just a GOP consultant. She was even part of the 2018 lawsuit?

Seems like it was some prototype that she pursued solely to get as close to zero deviation as possible and subsequently abandoned. Also note that it's using official census population deviation - I thought PA legally has to use prison population reallocated numbers?

No that was merely the legislative commission doing that.

[ctherainbow]

Well this map is totally gonna survive a trip through the courts.  Uh-huh.  Yup.

😂😂😂

Sadly though, I have zero doubt that the Commonwealth Court will try to stall out the appeal so that this upcoming election is run under these maps.  Which likely means the GOP picks up Lamb’s open seat and knocks off Cartwright, Houlahan, and Wild, for a 12R/5D delegation.

I don't think this is possible. Tom Wolf will probably veto it and punt it to the PASC.

Wolf will 100% veto, so if it gets through the Commonwealth Court before the filing deadline in early March, then yeah, we should end up with a fair map, because the PASC is relatively well versed in mapping at this point.

Well my point is that if it's vetoed it doesn't become law, so I don't see how elections could ever be held under this map, unless I'm ignorant of some quirk of Pennsylvania law.

Sorry, you right, my fingers are typing faster than my brain is working.   

[lfromnj]

Yeah in the end the effect of the map is a GOP gerrymander in PA08 while a slight Dem friendly map in PA06/PA05. Along with a butcher of the Harrisburg area but less a gerrymander than other factors.

Its a bad map but its impossible to argue that someone who sued the GOP for a gerrymander is now drawing a GOP gerrymander.

[lfromnj]

http://amandae.com/

Oh its actually some actual activist who proposed it and not just a GOP consultant. She was even part of the 2018 lawsuit?

Seems like it was some prototype that she pursued solely to get as close to zero deviation as possible and subsequently abandoned. Also note that it's using official census population deviation - I thought PA legally has to use prison population reallocated numbers?

https://app.mydistricting.com/legdistricting/pennsylvania/comment_links

Nope it was submitted back here.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Did Ryan Costello draw this map?

Even if he didn't, it'd look like he did.