2006 Mid-Term Update: Democrats Have Twenty-Point Lead Over GOP

[Frodo]

Democrats Have 20-Point Lead in U.S.

June 12, 2006

(Angus Reid Global Scan) – The Democratic Party remains the favourite in this year’s election to the United States Congress, according to a poll by Ipsos-Public Affairs released by the Associated Press. 52 per cent of respondents would like to see the Democrats win control of the U.S. legislative branch, up one point since May.

Support for a victory for the Republican Party is at 32 per cent, down two points in a month. In addition, 12 per cent of respondents want neither party in charge of Congress, and four per cent are not sure.

In the November 2004 congressional ballot, the Republican Party elected 232 lawmakers to the House of Representatives, while the Democratic Party secured 202 seats. The Republicans also have a majority in the Senate, with 55 members in the 100-seat upper house.

Last week, several Democratic supporters pledged up to $3 million U.S. in grants to organizations in order to attract young voters. Deborah Rappaport, one of the donors, declared, "The party’s plans to reach out to young people are incredibly insufficient. If we don’t pay attention to them now, we will lose them."

American voters will renew the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate on Nov. 7.
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Polling Data

If the election for Congress were held today, would you want to see the Republicans or Democrats win control of Congress?

                    June 2006           May 2006               April 2006

Democrats:       52%                    51%                        49%
   
Republicans:     32%                    34%                        33%
   
Neither:            12%                    13%                        15%
   
Not sure:            4%                      2%                          3%           
   

Source: Ipsos-Public Affairs / Associated Press
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,003 American adults, conducted from Jun. 5 to Jun. 7, 2006.  Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

[Frodo]

Out of curiosity, does anyone happen to have access to records that track polling for the 1994 mid-term year?  It would be interesting to see what the numbers were at this time twelve years ago. 

[Frodo]

Wait, Frodo, didn't you say that only stupid people like me ever believe a poll?

No, I said only that you tend to take what a single poll says at face value and draw conclusions from it that you might regret making.  We all have this weakness, but you seem to have it worst of all of us.  That makes you appear more gullible than most.