India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is a good video of why 2004 hopes are little far fetched. These are the reasons he gives:

1. There is no reasonable study that has shown that lower turnout hurts the BJP. Some studies have shown that sometimes lower turnout could benefit the BJP as well

2. NDA is far stronger in UP/Bihar than it was in 2004. In 2004 the NDA only won 22 seats in both states while in 2019 that number was 101 and they got over a 50% vote share as well

3. Ram Mandir helps among Northern voters where the BJP has a lot of seats

4. There is no equivalent to Sonia Gandhi in 2004 for the opposition and the lack of one major leader gives the BJP the advantage on the issue of "strong stable leadership"

5. The BJP has far more momentum in the south today than it did back in 2004 and far more seats are winnable for them there then there was back then.

[CumbrianLefty]

Were even the most wildly optimistic anti-BJP types saying it could be "another 2004", though?

[randomusername]

I'm honestly kind of surprised that there's belief that the BJP/NDA will lose a significant portion of seats. Given Modi-Shah's tenacity, what we saw in Surat, public fervor over the Ram temple, my expectation is that at worst they match 2019 or even gain some seats. I might be completely off the mark here but that's my feeling.

I could see them losing some ground in Bihar but making it up in West Bengal.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm honestly kind of surprised that there's belief that the BJP/NDA will lose a significant portion of seats. Given Modi-Shah's tenacity, what we saw in Surat, public fervor over the Ram temple, my expectation is that at worst they match 2019 or even gain some seats. I might be completely off the mark here but that's my feeling.

I could see them losing some ground in Bihar but making it up in West Bengal.

I do think the BJP will lose some seats overall as keep in mind in 2019 the NDA swept Rajasthan, won 26/28 in Karnataka, won 28/29 in MP, won 39/40 in Bihar so I do think its very possible you could see losses here which cant be made up in West Bengal.

Now the question whether the BJP makes gains or not comes down to whether they can make gains in UP or not as the NDA did lose 9 seats of their 2014 totals there(down from 73 to 64) so if they can get back into the 70s in UP then I think its likely for them to make gains.

At this time though I think we will see the NDA finish somewhere in the low 340s as the total which is higher than 2014 but less than 2019

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is what the opposition is most hoping for:

https://www.ft.com/content/c832e0cf-9fbd-43b5-a8b7-2685634f1454

Then I hit the campaign trail, alongside a group of 20 media colleagues with whom I have covered 32 Indian national and state elections over the past 25 years. This time we tracked the campaign from the east coast to the west, traversing the states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra. And as is often the case, the conventional wisdom did not survive the road reality test. Nowhere on this 2,000km, eight-day route did we hear the sounds of a wave.

We heard no backlash against the prime minister either. Just a return to an India before Modi mania, focused on local issues and leaders — with events in New Delhi an afterthought. The urban middle-class stir with pride at Modi’s base case for a third term — that a roaring economy is raising India’s global stature. But many rural voters do not.

[Logical]

Phase 5 turnout. Don't ask me to interpret this. I'm not jaichind.

[pikachu]

Were even the most wildly optimistic anti-BJP types saying it could be "another 2004", though?

Outside the politicians who kind of have to say it, no. Tbh there hasn’t even been much hype about the BJP losing its majority compared to 2019.

This is what the opposition is most hoping for:

https://www.ft.com/content/c832e0cf-9fbd-43b5-a8b7-2685634f1454

Then I hit the campaign trail, alongside a group of 20 media colleagues with whom I have covered 32 Indian national and state elections over the past 25 years. This time we tracked the campaign from the east coast to the west, traversing the states of Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra. And as is often the case, the conventional wisdom did not survive the road reality test. Nowhere on this 2,000km, eight-day route did we hear the sounds of a wave.

We heard no backlash against the prime minister either. Just a return to an India before Modi mania, focused on local issues and leaders — with events in New Delhi an afterthought. The urban middle-class stir with pride at Modi’s base case for a third term — that a roaring economy is raising India’s global stature. But many rural voters do not.

Yeah, this is a sidebar, but the vibes and general optimism among the urban Indian middle class is stunning. From friends and family I’ve talked to who’ve visited in the last year and generally have a very low opinion of the BJP, it sounds like people there believe in the future in a way that I haven’t sensed in the English-speaking world since I became politically conscious. I’m a skeptic of how much the vibes match reality – I’m much more bearish on India’s future than most – but it’s an interesting contrast.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I narrowly missed my chance to vote in this election and the Singapore election(in the awkward period of being stateless which should end by next month). It's just kind of awful how normalised far-right attitudes are among even more cosmopolitan Indians. I have a close friend who despite knowing that my own other is muslim and father is Jain just started ranting about love Jihad.There's a way people are able to compartmentalise their far-right view points that just really discomforting.

It's just well elections are won and lost in the part of India I have no real contact with so I can't really make any psephological or societal claims based on this. Regarding the actual election, I only hope that the BJP's thuggish antics will backfire; there are a lot of week points regarding their economic and developmental performance that a well-structured opposition could take advantage of but Rahul Ghadi just isn't it and there are no real alternatives.