UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[Oryxslayer]

(as would be any sort of victory in Mid Beds)

Let's be honest about Mid-Beds: the genuine 3-way contest, with the additional potential for others to save their deposit,  is going to produce some wonky vote splits no matter who comes on top. In theory that would be Labour,  in practice who can say.

[YL]

Also, I think everyone should perhaps prepare for the Tamworth election in two weeks to potentially "break the swingometer." Selby was itself the second largest swing from Tory to Labour ever in a by-election, with a 23.5 point two-party swing or 47.5 point change. This falls behind the 1994 Dudley West by-election,  with a 29 point swing or 58 point direct change.

Tamworth has a larger Tory majority than Selby, the circumstances surrounding it are better for Labour,  and we just got even more confirmation last night that Tamworth viscerally wants the Tories gone. It's not hard to imagine Dudley West getting surpassed.

My prediction, made this morning, is as follows:

54 LAB
33 CON
04 REF
03 LDM
03 GRN
03 OTH

That really would be a terrible result for the Tories -- a swing of nearly 32%, comfortably beating the Dudley West record -- to the extent that if something like that happened and they lost Mid Beds as well I can imagine discussion of leadership challenges might flare up again.

Mid Beds I suspect is going to be close between Lab and Con with the Lib Dems in a respectable but clear third, and my guess is that no-one else saves their deposit.  I'm not exactly confident about either aspect of that, though, still less who actually comes out on top.

[MABA 2020]

Would almost be good if the Tories win Mid Beds through a three way split and then continue to meme themselves into thinking that means they can still win the next election.

[adma]

Given that I think they’re only going to get 4% in a by-election in a constituency that in 2010 gave UKIP 5% and in 2005 them and Veritas a combined 6%, when the bogus polls have had them as high as 10% in the last two months, I’m not quite sure how you’re interpreting that as some sort of prediction of great support.

Tamworth is the sort of seat where the Lib Dems do very poorly indeed and given the circumstances I don’t see why they and the Greens won’t be squeezed. But regardless the main point of my prediction was that I believe that Tamworth is going to see Labour win a clear victory, possibly in the range of a 20-point majority, whereas so many others are predicting that it’ll be narrow and the Conservatives may even keep the seat.

Actually, my point is more the reverse--that given the ballot-box reality Reform UK's been facing lately, *2%* to the Lib Dems/Greens' 3% could be a more realistic prospect than 4%.  So, a different shuffling of prospective sub-deposit shares.  (Sure, it might only be of interest to psephological magpies, but...)

[Torrain]

Mid Beds I suspect is going to be close between Lab and Con with the Lib Dems in a respectable but clear third, and my guess is that no-one else saves their deposit.  I'm not exactly confident about either aspect of that, though, still less who actually comes out on top.

Aye - three saved deposits feels right. If voters believe it's a three-way race, it's unlikely to be a hotspot of Reform or Green voters.

One other thing - Ann Kelly is going for her fourth consecutive run in the seat for the Monster Raving Loony Party. A genuine perennial candidate! Struggling to get my head around spending £2,000 on lost deposits.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

My cousin has been selected as the Conservative PPC for Rutherglen, lol. Nice guy, although I hope he loses.

Well then

[Torrain]

Labour's candidate in Mid Beds is shooting videos with (alleged) Lib Dem voters, who've crossed over to "keep the Tories out". Ironically, it's all very Lib Dem in the approach and language.

[Blair]

Yeah labour did a similar one in Selby with a Conservative voter.

The party has really improved its game for by elections.

[CumbrianLefty]

With a week to go, the LibDems have wheeled out their tried and tested Dead Russian Gambit in Mid Beds. Let's see if it works this time.

[icc]

With a week to go, the LibDems have wheeled out their tried and tested Dead Russian Gambit in Mid Beds. Let's see if it works this time.

What’s this referring to?

[CumbrianLefty]

Dead Russian is otherwise known as "late surge".

[Torrain]

Per Bloomberg's Alex Wickham, Conservative sources are briefing that they're still confident of narrowly holding both Tamworth and Mid Beds, in next week's by-elections.

Pinch of salt, given CCHQ's mishandled expectation management this year.

[Coldstream]

I don’t think we are particularly bullish on Tamworth, it’s a very different kettle of fish to Selby.

Mid Beds is completely up in the air and could go in any direction. Wouldn’t be shocked if the Tories hold both, although if I had to bet I’d say they don’t.

[Torrain]

I know it's a Lib Dem leaflet - but still, by even their own recent standards, this is a stretch:

Especially given the graph seems to be invented wholecloth.

[Coldstream]

I know it's a Lib Dem leaflet - but still, by even their own recent standards, this is a stretch:

Especially given the graph seems to be invented wholecloth.

Predictably desperate from a party that has no ideology or message beyond “We’re not the Tories and Labour can’t win here”. I’ve never understood how anyone can think so little of themselves that they go out and campaign for these people.

[Blair]

Mid Beds will be hard to predict because it could really come down to whether the third parties vote is 20 or 26%; just like with Batley a sizeable third party not only changes the result but also the general vibe.

I honestly have no idea what will happen.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1713858746709897346
For the reference, his seat of Wellingborough has an 18k majority, and was held by Labour between 1997-2005. Slimmer majority than Tamworth or Selby, but still a big lift required.

I believe the Standards Committee has to sign off, and he gets several weeks to appeal before this is actioned.

[Cassius]

I know it's a Lib Dem leaflet - but still, by even their own recent standards, this is a stretch:

Especially given the graph seems to be invented wholecloth.

A true classic.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Particularly since the Lib Dem candidate doesn't live in the constituency.

[JimJamUK]

Wellingborough is one of those places that has massively deindustrialised over the decades in a way that has been overlooked compared to elsewhere but has of course been very nasty to Labour’s prospects of winning the constituency. That said, it’s also the sort of place where they have been bouncing back the most in the past couple of years (tho no local elections since 2021) so could produce another truly appalling by-election result for the Tories.

[Blair]

Yes it's quite weird as you drive around Mid Beds and you feel like you're in some sort of brochure for Middle England- where as in Wellingborough all I remember is the very large prison and a lot of awful quality housing.

It's only down the road from Corby- the once famous marginal. 

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1714250238666404249?t=GR-8hOyVlgAXpYI267...

Copying this cause it offers some internal expectations of doom in Tamworth, and suggests a potential swing comparable not just to Selby, but also Dudley West.  IMO that's the main question there, whether we see a new record set for Swing to Labour in a by-election, or not.

[YL]

There is probably some expectation management going on with that being leaked, of course.  But if it is accurate then they are doomed in Tamworth but still have a chance in Mid Beds; one thing about these two by-elections is that the same Tory vote share (mid to high 30s, say, so a bit higher than in the "leak") could produce both a catastrophic defeat in Tamworth and a reasonably comfortable hold in Mid Beds, if Labour and the Lib Dems split the opposition vote.

[JimJamUK]

There is quite a bit of cope in that ‘leaked’ memo given it talks about how Sunak is relatively very popular compared to his party but Starmer is not (relative to what?). That Starmer’s personal ratings are much better than Sunak’s is conveniently left out.

There’s also a lot of focus on the limited number of switchers. Given this is a by-election, a lot of people (including potential switchers) will just be staying home, so for them to find 8% of all Conservative voters are intending to vote in the Tamworth by-election for Labour is not as comforting as they seem to think.

[Torrain]

I'm with JimJam on this one - there's some cope/spin in there that definitely reads like it's setting the groundwork for a Friday morning media round. It does *read* like it's been leaked by CCHQ for that reason. Those lines do seem harder to run if they lose both, rather than just Tamworth (given what double losses would do to the media narrative), so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Also, Dorries has chipped in to try and undercut the strategy, which seems on-brand (given we're only having her by-election thanks to a desire for revenge against the party anyway):
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1714330745613828218
I'm currently leaning towards Labour making it in Tamworth and coming up short in Mid Beds, but that's all vibes at this point.