CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I think these are very early, considering Elder has a 34/49 favorable, which I'd expect to be much worse...

https://twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/1437931388561408004

[Holmes]

We're not going to overanalyze early exit poll results and make predictions about them are we.

You've been here how long?

Too long.

[emailking]

Guess we're getting results at 11. Could have sworn this closed at midnight in '03. Called at close too.

[Matty]

This will be called at close too

I’m interested in seeing how my own city, mission viejo, will vote

It voted Biden for the first time in its 60 year history

This was a Romney +25 city

[Cyrusman]

This will be called at close too

I’m interested in seeing how my own city, mission viejo, will vote

It voted Biden for the first time in its 60 year history

This was a Romney +25 city

Jesus Christ. What happened in Mission Viejo? It’s a bunch of middle class white people. What did they see in Biden?

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

This will be called at close too

I’m interested in seeing how my own city, mission viejo, will vote

It voted Biden for the first time in its 60 year history

This was a Romney +25 city

Jesus Christ. What happened in Mission Viejo? It’s a bunch of middle class white people. What did they see in Biden?

Not a psycho?

Plus, basically everyone in MV went, is going, or will be college educated in some form.

[BoiseBoy]

This will be called at close too

I’m interested in seeing how my own city, mission viejo, will vote

It voted Biden for the first time in its 60 year history

This was a Romney +25 city

I have relatives who live in Clovis, Tustin, Lincoln, and Carmichael.

My family in Clovis and Lincoln is pro-recall and my Carmichael/Tustin family members are anti-recall. I haven't asked who they selected on the second question, assuming they voted today.

[Matty]

This will be called at close too

I’m interested in seeing how my own city, mission viejo, will vote

It voted Biden for the first time in its 60 year history

This was a Romney +25 city

Jesus Christ. What happened in Mission Viejo? It’s a bunch of middle class white people. What did they see in Biden?

Not a psycho?

Plus, basically everyone in MV went, is going, or will be college educated in some form.

It’s gotten a lot less white.

Many Indians and Asians have moved here.

[Holmes]

This will be called at close too

I’m interested in seeing how my own city, mission viejo, will vote

It voted Biden for the first time in its 60 year history

This was a Romney +25 city

Jesus Christ. What happened in Mission Viejo? It’s a bunch of middle class white people. What did they see in Biden?

Not a psycho?

Plus, basically everyone in MV went, is going, or will be college educated in some form.

It’s gotten a lot less white.

Many Indians and Asians have moved here.

Indians are Asian.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

This will be called at close too

I’m interested in seeing how my own city, mission viejo, will vote

It voted Biden for the first time in its 60 year history

This was a Romney +25 city

Jesus Christ. What happened in Mission Viejo? It’s a bunch of middle class white people. What did they see in Biden?

Not a psycho?

Plus, basically everyone in MV went, is going, or will be college educated in some form.

It’s gotten a lot less white.

Many Indians and Asians have moved here.

Indians are Asian.

All of whom went, are going, or will be college educated in some form.

[Matty]

Sorry, I did not mean to offend with that comment.

I was just trying to be more specific.

I will rephrase: mission viejo has seen an influx of southern asian, middle eastern, and east asian residents, most of whom are educated.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Biden at 56-41 approval in CA isn’t great in the long run

1. It's the only exit poll we've got.

2. Exit polls are prone to change throughout the night. Especially 3 hours before polls closed.

3. It's an off-year election.

4. For reference, CNN's 2010 Exit Poll had Obama's approval at 53-45 in California. For 2014, it was 57-41 in California.

[jamestroll]

Let's see.. if wealthy college whites vote heavy to recall we should immediate rethink the standard va gov prediction.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

This will be called at close too

I’m interested in seeing how my own city, mission viejo, will vote

It voted Biden for the first time in its 60 year history

This was a Romney +25 city

Jesus Christ. What happened in Mission Viejo? It’s a bunch of middle class white people. What did they see in Biden?

I take it you're not from California and haven't followed California politics in a while?

[Pres Mike]

Republicans clearly blew it

Californians, both Dems and Republicans, were fed up with Newsom. Fed up with how slow the opening was happening comapred to the other states and how schools remained closed because the state surrended to the teacher unions early on

Of course a Republican would never out right win. And maybe Newsom was never going to be recalled. But a month ago, the polls were tied. Elder might have become governor on a pluratiy . Imgine if they nominated a socially liberal Republican....

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This will be called at close too

I’m interested in seeing how my own city, mission viejo, will vote

It voted Biden for the first time in its 60 year history

This was a Romney +25 city

Jesus Christ. What happened in Mission Viejo? It’s a bunch of middle class white people. What did they see in Biden?

I take it you're not from California and haven't followed California politics in a while?

Or any politics for that matter. For more on the matter visit the office of long-term congressman John Culberson, who was booted out in 2018 after surviving D-waves like 2006 and 2008 by over twenty points.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Republicans clearly blew it

Californians, both Dems and Republicans, were fed up with Newsom. Fed up with how slow the opening was happening comapred to the other states and how schools remained closed because the state surrended to the teacher unions early on

Of course a Republican would never out right win. And maybe Newsom was never going to be recalled. But a month ago, the polls were tied. Elder might have become governor on a pluratiy . Imgine if they nominated a socially liberal Republican....

Sooner of later, the moderate or "socially liberal" Republican will play the same game of winning over conservatives that's happened in every gubernatorial election here since 2010 (Whitman/Poizner, Kashkari/Donnelly, Cox/Allen, Faulconer/Elder).

I guarantee if Faulconer runs again next year, it'll happen again. The CA GOP & their electorate just can't help themselves.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If it’s a 56-41 result then I think the recall will narrowly carry OC.

Wait wait, I'm lost: from where are we getting a potential 56-41 result?

The 57-41 aggregate recall polling over the last week.

[Holmes]

Republicans clearly blew it

Californians, both Dems and Republicans, were fed up with Newsom. Fed up with how slow the opening was happening comapred to the other states and how schools remained closed because the state surrended to the teacher unions early on

Of course a Republican would never out right win. And maybe Newsom was never going to be recalled. But a month ago, the polls were tied. Elder might have become governor on a pluratiy . Imgine if they nominated a socially liberal Republican....

No, California Democrats weren’t fed up with how Newsom handled the pandemic and how he went about re-opening the state. If you look at even the exit polls, a huge majority of Californians support safety measures, and those numbers are higher among Democrats only.

Also there was a “socially liberal” Republican in the race and he ended up being a huge loser despite everyone and their mom hyping him up.

[emailking]

Yeah the problem is the party can't nominate anyone for this. It's just a free-for-all.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yeah the problem is the party can't nominate anyone for this. It's just a free-for-all.

Well, really a broader problem is that the party can't nominate anyone for anything. Even in normal elections, there's not a guaranteed ballot line in the general election for a Republican, which is why for a politician seeking statewide office there's no real reason to affiliate with the Republican Party. In the future we'll see some independents (like Steve Poizner) but mostly everyone seriously trying to win office will be a Democrat.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Regardless of the results, California clearly needs to do something about it’s recall system. There is a plausible world in which Larry Elder ‘defeats’ Gavin Newsom 26-48.
The whole thing is a joke.

[Real Texan Politics]

Final predictions, bookmark this if I'm wrong:

Newsom survives by mid teens.

Recall wins Orange by high single digits. Fresno will vote to the right of Orange.

Elder wins almost every county in the replacement map, exceptions being Faulconer likely winning San Diego, Paffrath winning the Bay Area, and Killey possibly winning Sacramento (latter prediction may be a stretch but could happen).

Jenner (at best) wins one or two precincts in Hollywood (if she's to win any at all), though she will likely not even finish top 5 after Elder seemed to unite the republicans around him.

[Drew]

Exit polls on CNN:

Views on the Republican Party 32% favorable/63% unfavorable

Views of the Democratic Party: 52%/43%

[Matty]

Cnn exit also has Biden approval at 56-41

Pretty mediocre tbh