kevinatcausa
Rookie
Posts: 196
Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -5.04
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« on: October 30, 2008, 06:30:05 PM » |
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Under the assumptions suggested by Nate Silver on 538 (undecided whites split 2:1 for McCain, blacks split 9:1 for Obama, latinos split 3:2 for Obama, meaning that each group breaks slightly more for McCain than they have so far) the polling numbers give an nationwide undecided split of 58-42 in favor of McCain.
However, this doesn't say much for state by state polls, and sample sizes for each of those are so small that its hard to break down the undecided voters in any individual state by race (this may be doable by aggregating a lot of state polls for, say, Pennsylvania, but I'd still be worried about the wide differences between pollster's definition of "undecided").
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