Guess how much Obama raised in September

[J. J.]

Not that I condone the ad hominem attacks, but exactly what did this 'J.J' person say that makes Obama's fund raising numbers a 'fail' for him?

He thought that the 66 Mio. raised by the RNC+McCain was the top of the sky and now reality strikes like a rock, with Obama and the DNC raising 3-times the money of the RNC+McCain (who's getting socialist campaign welfare from the state).

No, actually, I was surprised when Obama didn't announce it. after the RNC did.  If good, I would have expected it to be announced early.

[J. J.]

I just cannot figure out why they didn't announce it in early October.

[J. J.]

Here are the numbers:



Roughtly, this is how the campaigns started on 9/1/08:

RNC:                     $113,000,000

80% McCain:           $90,000,000

McCain FEC:             $84,000,000

Total:                      $174,000,000

Obama/DNC:             $85,000,000

Difference:               $89,000,000

The RNC raised 9/08: $66,000,000

80% McCain:              $52,800, 000

Total, less spending:  $221,800,000

Obama:                      $150,000,000

DNC:                            $42,000,000

80% Obama:                $33,600,000

Total, less spending:  $183,800,000

Total, less spending:  $85,000,000 + $183,800,000 = 268,000,000


Now, I've underestimated McCain's total because $20-$40 M was transferred to other committees and overestimated the the DNC start by about $2 M.

He has parity, but I still can't figure out why Obama didn't announce it earlier.  A Sunday morning with Powell's endorsement isn't exactly good timing.

[J. J.]

He has parity, but I still can't figure out why Obama didn't announce it earlier.  A Sunday morning with Powell's endorsement isn't exactly good timing.

J.J., perhaps - perhaps - the people running the Obama campaign are smarter than you when it comes to stuff like this. I know none of them are in MENSA, but they've proven themselves to be pretty capable thus far.

An absolutely great Obama story gets released on a Sunday morning, where it's completely hidden by the Powell story.  The roll out of Biden wasn't handled well, if you recall.  This would have had so much more impact if it was released on Thursday or Friday, not to mention 2 weeks ago.

[J. J.]

I just cannot figure out why they didn't announce it in early October.

Because it would have been a stupid move. It would have been more difficult to convince people to continue to donate if the campaign appeared to be way ahead in cash, and it would have been a waste of a news cycle at a time when Obama was already far ahead. Much, much more intelligent to save it for right now, to put in the nail in the coffin after the final debate (combined with the Powell endorsement).

Of course, McCain should have waited with Ayers and ACORN stuff until after the final debate, too. Then Obama wouldn't have had free public face time with the country to address the issue as eloquently and convincingly as he did in the final debate.

You're right about the day, but it can't always be helped.

Verily, two things that can really make people think Obama can win before the election.

1.   Great poll numbers (which Obama can't really do anything about). 

2.   Raising a lot of money.  Putting it out there two weeks ago would have made him look inevitable.

ACORN is still out there.  Ayers isn't that relevant, to me at least (though Obama could have handled that a lot better, even in the primaries).

[J. J.]

J.J., you seem to be under the impression that success in a campaign means winning the greatest number of news cycles. Sure it's important, but basing your entire strategy around winning days of media coverage is a myopic stategy. You can win a news cycle but lose ground overall, for instance if the cycle was 'won' on ephemeral issues like Joe Biden's hair plugs or McCain's performance on SNL.

I am saying that this is a great story that makes the candidate look like the winner; it would help give Obama an aura of invulnerability, if it is announced.  It helps with fund raising (like poll numbers) because people will contribute more to a candidate they think will win.  And, it adds that one day cycle of good news, though that is the least important reason.

It would have been like getting Powell's endorsement in early September and sitting on it until now.

[J. J.]

Here are the numbers:



Roughtly, this is how the campaigns started on 9/1/08:

RNC:                     $113,000,000

80% McCain:           $90,000,000

McCain FEC:             $84,000,000

Total:                      $174,000,000

Obama/DNC:             $85,000,000

Difference:               $89,000,000

The RNC raised 9/08: $66,000,000

80% McCain:              $52,800, 000

Total, less spending:  $221,800,000

Obama:                      $150,000,000

DNC:                            $42,000,000

80% Obama:                $33,600,000

Total, less spending:  $183,800,000

Total, less spending:  $85,000,000 + $183,800,000 = 268,000,000


Now, I've underestimated McCain's total because $20-$40 M was transferred to other committees and overestimated the the DNC start by about $2 M.

He has parity, but I still can't figure out why Obama didn't announce it earlier.  A Sunday morning with Powell's endorsement isn't exactly good timing.

1.  He wants the gravy train to keep on running.  The less his supporters hear about this, the harder they will campaign and the more they will continue to give their money.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I took a look at the last cycle; about 10% was given to Congressional candidates on both sides.  The Volon suggest that for every $1.00, 80 cents would be "campaign money, so that's what I'm using.

He has parity, but I still can't figure out why Obama didn't announce it earlier.  A Sunday morning with Powell's endorsement isn't exactly good timing.

For the same reasons 'bumper' months/periods are announced unusually late in the UK; because it takes time to verify and return unwanted or unnacountable donations.

I agree that they can't come up with perfect numbers, but both sides have, in the past, come out with rough estimates.