Change in conventional wisdom?

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

I feel like the going theory about the 2022 midterms had been, until very recently, that the map looked pretty favorable to Democrats, despite being the governing party. In the last couple of days, it seems like everything has become very doom-and-gloom, with lots of talk about the Dems having a difficult time and an uphill battle, etc. Why is this? Is it just regression to the mean, the desire for a horserace, were the initial favorable takes wrong?

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

I feel like the going theory about the 2022 midterms had been, until very recently, that the map looked pretty favorable to Democrats, despite being the governing party. In the last couple of days, it seems like everything has become very doom-and-gloom, with lots of talk about the Dems having a difficult time and an uphill battle, etc. Why is this? Is it just regression to the mean, the desire for a horserace, were the initial favorable takes wrong?

People take one race (TX-6) and think it'll apply to everywhere, even when it's a low-turnout election barely 100 days into the term. Perhaps if other specials showed a similar pattern we could get worried, but everyone tries to pretend one race is going to be an indicator for everything.

also, this belongs in the main CE board.

Oops, my mistake. Is this something a mod can move or should I just recreate this over there?