State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Mr.Phips]

Woah, Democrat leads in deep-red SC-LD-14: http://wlbg.com/2019/04/23/sc-house-district-14-election-results/?62227

For like a second.

[Mr.Phips]

The first of many to follow in eastern Kentucky as November approaches:

Republican Wins Longtime Democratic Statehouse Seat In Eastern Kentucky

Looking at the districts, I wouldn’t be surprised if Republicans picked up 10 more seats in the Kentucky House this November.

[Mr.Phips]

There's a special election today for Kentucky Senate District 26 in Jefferson and Oldham Counties. It's a Trump +12 and Beshear +10 district in the northern Louisville suburbs. Doctor Karen Berg (D) is facing Businessman Bill Ferko (R). Berg ran for this seat in 2018 but lost 52-46 to incumbent Ernie Harris (R) who stepped down this April.

The highly contested U.S. Senate primary on the Democratic side as well as general D enthusiasm (especially in the suburbs) might give Berg a boost. She has the Facebook enthusiasm with nearly 2x as many likes as Ferko. I'd rate this race a tossup.

Polls close at 6 PM.

Berg needs to keep Oldham county within 10 to win.

[Mr.Phips]

The in-person vote just dropped from Jefferson county in KY SD-26.

Berg (D) gained 460, Ferko (R) gained 484.

Ferko now leads 4602-1584, or 75% to 25%.

The vast majority of votes still uncounted with mail-ins not to be opened until 6/30.

The in person vote in Jefferson was that small?  The Jefferson portion of the district is larger than Oldham.

[Mr.Phips]

The in-person vote just dropped from Jefferson county in KY SD-26.

Berg (D) gained 460, Ferko (R) gained 484.

Ferko now leads 4602-1584, or 75% to 25%.

The vast majority of votes still uncounted with mail-ins not to be opened until 6/30.

The in person vote in Jefferson was that small?  The Jefferson portion of the district is larger than Oldham.

I believe the Oldham number contains both election day and in-person early voting. My guess is the Jefferson number is just the election day.

https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1276171990286635015

With these numbers there are at least 16,000 mail-in ballots from Jefferson in SD-26 and likely more.

Berg would need to get at least in the high 50s there to pull off a win.

[Mr.Phips]

Tomorrow is special Election Day (as well as State Super) in WI. Important development in the SD-13 special election (where I live.) Although the Democrat, Melissa Winker, faces extremely long odds in this contest (Baldwin even lost this district by 6 in 2018) she got a bit of good news last week. Don Pridemore, a Republican who lost the primary to Jagler (he got 33% of the vote in the GOP primary) announced he is waging an aggressive write in campaign. He’s even getting people writing in letters to the editor now. Pridemore was a state assemblyman, so he has some name ID in this district. Trump Conservative Party candidate Spencer Zimmerman is also running.
Although Zimmerman probably won’t get more than 3%, Pridemore could draw in a fair amount (closer to 10 perhaps?) and spoil Jagler’s win.
https://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/opinion/letters/letter-write-in-pridemore-on-ballot/article_559d85b7-8cc9-5d46-8831-c5bbd0ff9894.html
http://

This if this is within 20 points I’ll be very surprised.

[Mr.Phips]

http://thelocalne.ws/2021/11/30/belsito-is-first-democrat-to-take-4th-essex-since-1858/

Democrat Jamie Belsito wins special election for 4th Essex district in Massachusetts. A Democrat has not won this district since 1858.

By what margin did it vote Biden ?

He won it by about 30 points.

[Mr.Phips]

Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA. 

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless.  The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.

[Mr.Phips]

Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA.  

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless.  The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.

The special is taking place under the old lines, which was Biden +10. The general will be in a Biden +20 seat.

Did Biden win the new version of the (currently Dem-held) Eastern Shore seat?  If so, by how much?  Do we also have Youngkin numbers for it?

Update: I can see that it was a Youngkin blowout with 57.7%.  Overall, there were 20 Yougkin seats and 20 McAuliffe seats in the VA state senate.  There are exactly 21 seats where Youngkin did worse than his statewide margin (R+2).  2 of the Youngkin seats have Dem incumbents.  I believe this Virginia Beach CD is the only McAuliffe seat that (formerly) had an R incumbent.    

In the 2022 congressional elections, the Eastern Shore district was 54% R.   Democratic candidates won 24 seats, winning the same 21 by more than their statewide margin (D+3).

Based on this, I do expect Dems to most likely hold the chamber.  

Biden obviously won a couple more seats with the double digit statewide margin.  

Trump very narrowly carried the Dem held Eastern Shore seat.  The expectation was that if Kiggins didn’t beat Luria, Kiggins would have run for reelection in this district.

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1612625559351164928

VPAP is also being seriously misleading here. Completely ignoring 2020 and 2018.

And also, I thought Hillary won here in 2016. 

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1612625559351164928

VPAP is also being seriously misleading here. Completely ignoring 2020 and 2018.

And also, I thought Hillary won here in 2016. 

She did win it by 0.3%.

Is this a result of the issue where VA didn't allocate absentees by precinct until literally last year?

If that’s the case, then maybe Turpin actually won in 2019?

[Mr.Phips]

In little known special elections the online right can enjoy their temporary fantasy land of Nova being a Republican/Swing area.





The general election results makes complete sense for generic candidates in that district.

This has always been a district where Dems have relied on lower propensity minority voters.  They actually lost this as an open seat in 2015 (after finally narrowly winning it in 2013).  Of course it flipped right back in 2017.

[Mr.Phips]

There could be a special election upcoming in AL HD-10, following David Cole's indictment for voter fraud.

Cole only won here 51.6-45 last year, so this could be a possible Democratic gain, either in a special election or in 2024 when the seat is normally up.

Also only went 50%-48% for Trump in 2020.