National Tracking Poll Thread

[Brittain33]

Well, this is the lead paragraph at Rasmussen today:

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[Brittain33]

Seriously, people think that the number "90,000 jobs gained" is going to make any sizable impact in voters' intentions?

Really?

[Brittain33]

A big part of the Republican coalition of 2010 and 2008 was Democratic in the 1990s and liable to snap back to the Dems over their main issue: Medicare. I suspect that is what we may be seeing with Clinton's speech.

[Brittain33]

The media and even Republican foreign policy folks are savaging Mitt Romney for his disgusting comments. J.J. is once again being a hack.

J.J., is CNN covering Romney's comments negatively?

[Brittain33]

Rasmussen: Obama 48 (+1), Romney 48 (-1)

poor mittens

The internals krazen quoted about Romney being up 5 in Ohio are looking a little fishier this morning.

[Brittain33]

Rasmussen

Obama 48 (unc)
Romney 48 (unc)

[Brittain33]

It's kind of hilarious if October saw the American electorate adjusting to match Rasmussen rather than the other way around.

[Brittain33]

I saw some reverse math at Brad DeLong's site that said that Obama must have had an extraordinarily good sample on Sunday to account for the numbers Gallup was showing between the two 3-day breakouts and the 7-day option. Like, O +20. Given the credibility problem that would (rightfully) cause, that's a reason for Gallup to stick to 7-day samples a little longer.

[Brittain33]

Maybe I'm whistling past the graveyard, but having lived through enough cycles with demoralized Dem voters and dysfunctional campaigns, the one area I don't worry about is a yawning RV/LV gap. The Obama campaign doesn't have 386 campaign offices in Ohio for people to hold signs.

(Obviously Romney has a bounce in the polls and his followers are super energized right now, I'm just sayin'.)

[Brittain33]

Romney leads independents by 9

Conservatives reidentify as independents; pays a double bonus in opening a gap between Dems and Republicans AND lets Romney win independents easily.

[Brittain33]

The Gallup poll shows that relative to 2008, Obama has collapsed in the south, fallen some in the east, and is stable in the Midwest and West. This is consistent with polls showing him losing Florida and tightening in Pa., and would seem to indicate trouble in Va. But it would also explain the OH/WI/IA/NV firewall he's got going. Remember when Obama polled reasonable well in TN? That's gone.

[Brittain33]

OBAMA SURGE IN IBD

OBAMA: 48% (+1)
ROMNEY: 42% (-2)

TIME TO PANIC JJ

Romney lead I by 6...

Party id: D+7

In the last few years, many conservatives have shifted their ID from Republican to Independent. This leads both to a bigger margin for Dems and a bigger lead for Republicans among Is. It doesn't change the overall composition of the electorate on its own.

[Brittain33]

Gallup RV:

Romney 48% (-1)
Obama 47% (+1)

BOOM!

[Brittain33]

Are we observing any "trends" in Gallup that we can extrapolate into the future?

[Brittain33]

Obama surged in RAND today, to his highest level ever.

Obama: 50.56%
Romney: 44.64%

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election

It's a RANDSLIDE!

[Brittain33]

Gallup 10/26/12

Romney - 51
Obama - 46

Good grief, they are delusional.

Why? Because Romney is ahead? I don't know if you know this, but this election is far from over.  Nobody knows who is going to win.

Jeff, let's say for now that it's truly a knife-edge race and "nobody knows who is going to win." If so, a five-point lead by Romney is indicating a sizable chance that Romney has sewn up the race and can't lose. That's inconsistent with "nobody knows who is going to win," and the state polling has shown consistently that Obama is favored to win by a narrow margin.