NH: Dems getting worried?

[Mr.Phips]

A agree with most of whats been said, with the caveat that I think Shea-Porter is in better shape than NH-2 or the Senate race, but better shape is probably still toss-up/tilt R. The thing to remember though is that most polls in NH tend to be questionable and tilt slightly R. Remember in in 2008 that virtually every UNH poll showed Shea-Porter behind, some by as much as 6 or 7 points and she ended up winning by six. And for obvious reasons she is less effected by the climate being a polarized and eccentric figure anyway.

That said, a small tilt to the GOP in polls still leaves Hodes in likely hopeless territory, and Bass is probably a shoe-in in the second if he wins the primary, which given his campaign so far, I have serious doubts about. In the first, Guinta finally seems to be launching a serious campaign, and I saw a number of his signs in the Lakes Region over the last week, far moreso than Shea-Porter.

I would also say that the State House is likely to be gone as well at least narrowly, and the Senate is not looking so hot either. Given the Democratic failure to win a stretch of special elections, ones in which they came within an inch of winning in 2006 and 2008, but clobbered in since, is not a good sign.

As for Lynch, the GOP is determined to take him down, less the state settle into one of two things:

1. Gridlock

2. Replublican complicity in tax increases

The Democrats have used magic budgeting tricks to keep the budget in the black, but everyone expects massive spending cuts or tax increases next year. The schools budget is near sacrosanct because the Supreme Court requires an equitable funding system and has on occasion ordered the legislature to raise taxes. The result is that there will be a dance about cuts and then some sort of tax increase.

The problem is that the incoming GOP majority is likely to have a genuine nutty component due to candidate quality issues, and the unpaid nature of the work which discourages normal human beings from running. The result is likely to be a standoff, and if Lynch is in, either a government shut-down, or a tax compromise. Either of these is bad for the GOP, so they want a governor in who won't veto whatever tricks they come up with to postpone disaster for a year.

The very fact that this, rather than whether the GOP will take the majority, is the topic of discussion, is however, very bad news for the Democrats.

Dont Democrats have a huge majority in the state House?

[Mr.Phips]

A agree with most of whats been said, with the caveat that I think Shea-Porter is in better shape than NH-2 or the Senate race, but better shape is probably still toss-up/tilt R. The thing to remember though is that most polls in NH tend to be questionable and tilt slightly R. Remember in in 2008 that virtually every UNH poll showed Shea-Porter behind, some by as much as 6 or 7 points and she ended up winning by six. And for obvious reasons she is less effected by the climate being a polarized and eccentric figure anyway.

That said, a small tilt to the GOP in polls still leaves Hodes in likely hopeless territory, and Bass is probably a shoe-in in the second if he wins the primary, which given his campaign so far, I have serious doubts about. In the first, Guinta finally seems to be launching a serious campaign, and I saw a number of his signs in the Lakes Region over the last week, far moreso than Shea-Porter.

I would also say that the State House is likely to be gone as well at least narrowly, and the Senate is not looking so hot either. Given the Democratic failure to win a stretch of special elections, ones in which they came within an inch of winning in 2006 and 2008, but clobbered in since, is not a good sign.

As for Lynch, the GOP is determined to take him down, less the state settle into one of two things:

1. Gridlock

2. Replublican complicity in tax increases

The Democrats have used magic budgeting tricks to keep the budget in the black, but everyone expects massive spending cuts or tax increases next year. The schools budget is near sacrosanct because the Supreme Court requires an equitable funding system and has on occasion ordered the legislature to raise taxes. The result is that there will be a dance about cuts and then some sort of tax increase.

The problem is that the incoming GOP majority is likely to have a genuine nutty component due to candidate quality issues, and the unpaid nature of the work which discourages normal human beings from running. The result is likely to be a standoff, and if Lynch is in, either a government shut-down, or a tax compromise. Either of these is bad for the GOP, so they want a governor in who won't veto whatever tricks they come up with to postpone disaster for a year.

The very fact that this, rather than whether the GOP will take the majority, is the topic of discussion, is however, very bad news for the Democrats.

Dont Democrats have a huge majority in the state House?

The Republicans had a much large one in 2006 but that didn't save them.

Republicans also had their gubernatorial candidate get just 28% of the vote.  I dont think Lynch will do anywhere near that poorly.