Austrian state elections 2018 - Prediction Thread (Next: April 22 - Salzburg)
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Author Topic: Austrian state elections 2018 - Prediction Thread (Next: April 22 - Salzburg)  (Read 4554 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #25 on: April 12, 2018, 06:29:27 AM »
Salzburg prediction

ÖVP       36%
SPÖ       23%
FPÖ       18%
Greens   13%
NEOS      6%
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Beezer
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« Reply #26 on: April 19, 2018, 11:59:15 AM »
ÖVP: 34.7
SPÖ: 24.1
FPÖ: 17.7
Greens: 12.1
NEOS: 7.3

I officially guarantee this outcome.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Austria


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« Reply #27 on: April 19, 2018, 12:03:16 PM »
Quote from: Beezer on April 19, 2018, 11:59:15 AM
ÖVP: 34.7
SPÖ: 24.1
FPÖ: 17.7
Greens: 12.1
NEOS: 7.3

I officially guarantee this outcome.

So, you guys are predicting 20% for FPÖ+FPS ?

I think they won't do that well around here, instead the ÖVP should do really well (~40%).

But we'll see ...
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MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: April 19, 2018, 01:07:17 PM »
« Edited: April 19, 2018, 03:04:24 PM by maineiac4434🌲 »
ÖVP: 38.1
SPÖ: 28.1
FPÖ: 14.3
Greens: 11.3
NEOS: 7.6
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #29 on: April 19, 2018, 01:12:50 PM »
I can't say I'm knowledgeable enough to give an accurate prediction, but I can see the ÖVP 10 points or so above the others.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #30 on: April 20, 2018, 11:57:40 AM »
With just 2 days to go, here is my latest Salzburg prediction:

37.6% ÖVP (+8.6%)
30.1% SPÖ (+6.3%)
14.0% FPÖ (-3.0%)
  9.5% Greens (-10.7%)
  5.8% NEOS (+5.8%)
  1.6% FPS (+1.6%)
  0.9% SBG (+0.9%)
  0.4% KPÖ-Plus (+0.1%)
  0.1% CPÖ (+0.1%)

Team Stronach (8.4%) and Pirate Party (1.3%) are not on the ballot any longer.

I think that the FPS will do much better in the more local state election than in the federal election and eat into the FPÖ's share. Combined, I expect FPÖ/FPS to get around 16%, which would mean a stagnation compared with the 2013 results, or even a small decline.

The FPÖ has never gone beyond 20% in a state election here, not even under Haider - and the situation and trend for the Salzburg-FPÖ seems to be even weaker now than under Haider ... I'd be quite surprised if FPÖ+FPS cross the 20% threshold.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #31 on: April 21, 2018, 06:37:24 AM »
ÖVP 37%
SPÖ 27%
FPÖ 17%
Greens 11%
NEOS 5%
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Austria


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« Reply #32 on: April 22, 2018, 12:08:43 PM »
Wow, our predictions were bad this time.

But mine was the worst of all ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,197
Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #33 on: April 23, 2018, 06:35:02 AM »
Salzburg prediction results (average error by party + others):

jaichind: 2.2 points
Beezer: 2.3 points
DavidB: 2.9 points
Tender: 3.4 points
maineiac4434: 3.6 points
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #34 on: April 23, 2018, 03:08:42 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on April 22, 2018, 12:08:43 PM
Wow, our predictions were bad this time.

But mine was the worst of all ...


What were the results?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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Posts: 58,197
Austria


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E: -6.06, S: -4.84

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« Reply #35 on: April 23, 2018, 11:15:01 PM »

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