Attorney General & Senator Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 31,729
Political Matrix E: -1.42, S: -0.52
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« on: November 26, 2018, 02:25:34 AM » |
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Winners:
Walker would be RL-MI-PA-ME-2 Jeb! would be RL-MI +CO, NV, NH Kasich would be RL + CO, NV, NH, ME-AL, MN. VA is within 1% but I still think Clinton carries it. Rubio would be RL-MI-PA-WI-ME-2, + CO, NV (274-264 Rubio)
Two Scenarios for Rand. Scenario A is where his unorthodox positions and activities win very little from the Obama column and actually weaken the GOP in Appalachia:
Scenario B is one in which he reshapes the coalitions with his views, keeping down the Appalachian bleeding and making new appeals no other GOP candidate could:
(Maine Split is 3-1 R)
Cruz has no appeal to moderates or to populists, and so would lose. Romney + IA, FL would be the map. I agree with the OP on Christie and Huckabee. Gilmore - we have to remember that in the event he somehow got nominated, he wouldn't be the gadfly joke he is in RL. The 2008 Virginia Senate Race is not a good measurement because Mark Warner was quite popular from his time as Governor and was not really seen as much of a partisan or political figure. Also it was a D wave year. That being said, he's basically just a Poor Man's Cruz so to speak, so 2012+IA is my guess.
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