UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

This is how other constituencies, in a similar position to Mid Bedfordshire, have voted in past by-elections:

Kensington and Chelsea (November 1999): Con HOLD
Beaconsfield (May 1982): Con HOLD
Southend East (March 1980): Con HOLD
Hertfordshire South West (December 1979): Con HOLD

Of all of the by-elections Sunak will face, or is facing, Mid Bedfordshire will allow him to see if Labour is winning the commuter belt. If Labour gain this seat, then he will wait to the last possible moment to call an election, if the Lib Dems win he will call it in May 2024, and if he actually wins it he will say "Nadine tried to lose this for us, but we won, I am the Prime Minister"

I don't think all of those provide a barometer for this and I am based in the Chilterns area anyways.

Labour during the Michael Foot years were hopeless and the Beaconsfield by-election (where a certain grinning cottager stood for Labour) was when the Falklands War was reaching its conclusion and Maggie Thatcher's approval and support and government approval did go up. The current government has nothing of the sort to cling on to now to claim popularity.

What is that meant to mean in this context?

[Blair]

Possible Tamworth by election if the honourable member Pincher resigns rather than facing a recall.

It is geographically a West Midlands seat but very Staffordshire in my mind! 19k majority but held by labour 97-05. The local election results were terrible for the Tories- one of their worst areas iirc in terms of just how much the bottom fell out.

[Torrain]

Aye, I knew Labour had a relatively good night in the May elections, but could potentially be quite a brusing one, if this data is accurate:https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1698642022846906668

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes it is still a tough ask for Labour to win, but not as tough as the 2019 result suggests on paper.

[Oryxslayer]

Possible Tamworth by election if the honourable member Pincher resigns rather than facing a recall.

It is geographically a West Midlands seat but very Staffordshire in my mind! 19k majority but held by labour 97-05. The local election results were terrible for the Tories- one of their worst areas iirc in terms of just how much the bottom fell out.

The Tory problems in Tamworth almost all flow from Pincher, but he's been able to hang around so long that said problems won't easily go away. He's the difference between Tamworth's sweeping Labour local result and the positive but not crushing Labour results in say Cannock Chase and Reddich. And all of these areas are no longer among Labour’s immediate targets, even though they were won in 1997. Glancing over at the various models will find they all in normal circumstances would still stay Tory presently, partially cause of voter behavior since 97, partially cause the seats are geographically larger and now include rural turf.

Yet I'm fairly confident Labour will be holding Tamworth after the next GE, all cause of Pincher. The candidate selection conundrum is just another gift he has left the seat, one that will require a new candidate if a by-election is called.  The unique environments created by many past by-elections have benefited the challenger by more than they should have,  specifically because of the circumstances  surrounding the past incumbents departure. Yet another boon to Labour. And a by-election would help Labour more than just flipping the seat: getting a incumbent in place would again mess with the Tory selection and give them an easier time winning a seat that would hypothetically be a reach target if the polls slightly tightened.

[YL]

There have been some suggestions that they might sacrifice Walsall North to try to save Tamworth, by letting Eddie Hughes stand in the latter anyway, forcing another by-election. It sounds like a ridiculous thing to do, but Walsall North is effectively being abolished (which is why Hughes moved in the first place) so its loss might be regarded as acceptable if Hughes being candidate rather than some stopgap gives them a significantly better chance of holding Tamworth. I’m not convinced…

(Or they could just abandon Hughes and say that if they win the Tamworth by-election their new MP will be allowed to defend it, avoiding the stopgap problem but presumably making Hughes less than happy.)

[YL]

BTW writs have been issued today for both Mid Bedfordshire and Rutherglen & Hamilton West. This means both should be on 5 October.

Edit: I think the Mid Beds motion may have delayed the actual issue of the writ until Tuesday next week. That would put it on either 12 or 19 October.

Edit 2: indeed it did, so R&HW will be on 5 Oct and Mid Beds a week or too later. Apparently there are rumours that Pincher is going to resign rather than go through recall, so Tamworth and Mid Beds could be on the same day.

[JimJamUK]

Edit 2: indeed it did, so R&HW will be on 5 Oct and Mid Beds a week or too later. Apparently there are rumours that Pincher is going to resign rather than go through recall, so Tamworth and Mid Beds could be on the same day.

Not good news for Labour if so.

[afleitch]

Edit 2: indeed it did, so R&HW will be on 5 Oct and Mid Beds a week or too later. Apparently there are rumours that Pincher is going to resign rather than go through recall, so Tamworth and Mid Beds could be on the same day.

Not good news for Labour if so.

As difficult as it for Labour to win these seats, the optics of the Tories holding seats isn't great. And Rutherglen may also not be a walk over.

[Blair]

A staggered running order makes it harder for the Government to spin the results at least

[YL]

The Tories got 66% of the vote in Tamworth in 2019. That doesn’t mean it’s safe, and it would fall on the Selby & Ainsty swing, but it’s not an easy gain.

The Election Maps tweet above suggests that it’s not clear who carried it in May, given the split wards in the Lichfield district bit. AIUI that Lichfield bit is very Tory, which is partly why the constituency as a  whole leans to them more than you might think from its name.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Possible Tamworth by election if the honourable member Pincher resigns rather than facing a recall.

It is geographically a West Midlands seat but very Staffordshire in my mind! 19k majority but held by labour 97-05. The local election results were terrible for the Tories- one of their worst areas iirc in terms of just how much the bottom fell out.

The Tory problems in Tamworth almost all flow from Pincher, but he's been able to hang around so long that said problems won't easily go away. He's the difference between Tamworth's sweeping Labour local result and the positive but not crushing Labour results in say Cannock Chase and Reddich. And all of these areas are no longer among Labour’s immediate targets, even though they were won in 1997. Glancing over at the various models will find they all in normal circumstances would still stay Tory presently, partially cause of voter behavior since 97, partially cause the seats are geographically larger and now include rural turf.

I don't think this is true. Labour did well in Tamworth in May, but they did just as well in Redditch - Labour were 5% ahead, despite the two strongest wards in the borough not being up this year. And in Cannock the Tories got a hammering, which only looks better than it is because the Greens did well too. Pincher doesn't help, but the Conservatives are extremely unpopular in outlying bits of the West Midlands for a lot of other reasons.

[robocop]

This is how other constituencies, in a similar position to Mid Bedfordshire, have voted in past by-elections:

Kensington and Chelsea (November 1999): Con HOLD
Beaconsfield (May 1982): Con HOLD
Southend East (March 1980): Con HOLD
Hertfordshire South West (December 1979): Con HOLD

Of all of the by-elections Sunak will face, or is facing, Mid Bedfordshire will allow him to see if Labour is winning the commuter belt. If Labour gain this seat, then he will wait to the last possible moment to call an election, if the Lib Dems win he will call it in May 2024, and if he actually wins it he will say "Nadine tried to lose this for us, but we won, I am the Prime Minister"

I don't think all of those provide a barometer for this and I am based in the Chilterns area anyways.

Labour during the Michael Foot years were hopeless and the Beaconsfield by-election (where a certain grinning cottager stood for Labour) was when the Falklands War was reaching its conclusion and Maggie Thatcher's approval and support and government approval did go up. The current government has nothing of the sort to cling on to now to claim popularity.

What is that meant to mean in this context?

What do you think it means?    Don't try to play dumb.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well if you are claiming he is a closet homosexual, that's not the usual critique made about his private life (just ask one K R Murdoch if you don't accept my word on that)

[robocop]

Well if you are claiming he is a closet homosexual, that's not the usual critique made about his private life (just ask one K R Murdoch if you don't accept my word on that)

It is clearly obvious looking at his mannerisms which I have ALWAYS noticed since the 90s. 

Hey, if Philip Schofield could come out then why not......

[CumbrianLefty]

My point is, there are reasonably credible accounts of him having several heterosexual relationships - where are all the gay lovers if he has had them? You might expect at least one to "tell" wouldn't you.

And "mannerisms" aren't the be all and end all. There is definitely such a thing as "effeminate" men who are actually straight, and lots of gays and lesbians don't fit their stereotypes either.

I hold no brief for Mr Tony especially, and nor would it particularly bother me if he came out. I'm just saying that there is, as yet, no convincing evidence for it.

[TheTide]

If we are on this subject, then even these days there are certain active and prominent politicians whose non-heterosexuality is widely rumoured rather than open. 'Prominent' perhaps narrows the field down significantly as it isn't an adjective that can be applied even to most of the cabinet or to most of the shadow cabinet.

[CumbrianLefty]

Mandelson has friends whose heterosexuality is not in any doubt even by you

(and "cross dressing" doesn't equal gay either - has the whole trans panic really passed you by?)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cease and desist, I think.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, back to actual by-elections - there are after all a few coming up to discuss

[YL]

Back on topic, Central Bedfordshire council have stated that Mid Beds will be on 19 October.

Odds on the Lib Dems have lengthened a bit and those on Labour and the Tories shortened, but the yellows are still favourites. I’ve no idea whether that reflects the mood on the ground.

[Torrain]

Senior Conservative MPs briefing that they expect Pincher to resign from the Commons this week - apparently there's now a serious push to get Tamworth and Mid Beds scheduled for the same day.

Only Allegretti at the Guardian, and Michael Crick reporting so far, so *may* just be wishful thinking on the part of the whips.

[Blair]

It is very much vibes based but the Lib Dem campaign doesn’t seem to be huge or as inevitable as Shropshire and others- I can’t pretend to know who will be the main challenger but it’s certainly not as obviously Lib Dem as people thought in the summer.

[YL]

Tamworth: Reports that Chris Pincher has resigned written to Jeremy Hunt asking to be appointed Steward of the Manor of Northstead.

[Torrain]

Eddie Hughes (sitting MP for Walsall North, and Conservative candidate for Tamworth at the next general election), has confirmed, via Facebook, that he won't contest the Tamworth by-election, or stand down from Walsall North.

I respect the MP for Tamworth's decision to resign today and I understand there will now be a by-election.

However, as the sitting Member of Parliament for Walsall North I have a commitment to my constituents until the next general election. I look forward to continuing to represent the great people of Bloxwich, Willenhall and Walsall North.

Unclear whether he's still their general election candidate, or whether the local association will try and convince a candidate to act as a placeholder for the remaining year or so in this parliament.