UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[joevsimp]

Everyone be prepared to laugh at this by-election for the HoL with an electorate of ... Three people.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36084455

Not to mention 7 candidates.  Only one of whom got any votes.  And that he was one of the hereditaries kicked out in 1999 and went on to sit I  the commons for 14 years

[joevsimp]

I guess the writs for this and for Batley and Spen won't bee dropped until after conference season is over with.  No poll before mid November i don't think

[joevsimp]

For those (un)lucky enough to miss Piggate, David ''call me Dave'' Cameron has decided to follow Blair's lead and not sit around on the backbenches being a distraction for his successor.

Despite what I said above, both byelections have now been scheduled for October 20th. Witney is also the first tory held seat to call vacant since the election so we get to see how much (if any) of a chunk Labour manage to take out of Cam's stonking  43% majority and who they select (my net is some county councillor of other from Oxford

[joevsimp]

We have our slate for Witney apparently:

Con: Robert Courts, barrister and district cllr
Lab: Duncan Enright, their candate in 2015. Also a district cllr
LibDem: Liz Letterman. District cllr and businesswoman
Green: Larry Sanders, retired lecturer, former county cllr and elder brother of a certain well-known US Senator.
EngDem: Winston McKenzie. Former boxer, publican, Ukip candate in Croydon North and Tottenham and Celeb Big Brother contestant

[joevsimp]

no UKIP candidate in either by-election?

Nominations close 4pm on Monday, but I wouldn't be surprised if they sat it out if they've not nominated by this point, unless they plan to parachute someone in at the last minute

[joevsimp]

Labour would need a 13% swing to take Glasgow East, so within the range of possibilities (still a long shot though, for the record they would need a swing of 23% in Witney)

[joevsimp]

No,  I don't think so either reallty. Besides, do Labour actually have any heavy hitters who would be willing to take on what looks like a fool's errand?

I wonder if (assuming Scotland stays in the Union for now) that being a Scottish MP will end up being seen the same way that MEPs are now, either usefull training for the main show, an opertunity for impotent grandstanding or a dead end for relative nobodies

[joevsimp]

Larry did worse than the Greenie in 2015? Sad!

We're always the first to get squeezed out in something like this -  despite getting our first seat, our vote dropped 2010 in all but five constituencies (one of which oddly was Witney) thanks to "Cleggmania" (and an unexpected swing to Labour in London)

We have a lack of ground game for a byelection campaign, which at general elections is compensated for to an extent through media exposure, resurgent and apparently detoxified Lib Dems taking back some of the anti-coalition vote from last year and, dare I say it, a slightly gimmicky candidate who's USP maybe didn't go down as well as we'd hoped in the  villages and market towns.

still, good result for the Lib Dems, keeps pressure on both main parties, and would probably have been a lib dem gain if fought under AV (we can dream can't we)

also, always good to see the Loonies beat a (semi-) serious party

[joevsimp]

I think that they will carry on doing well in areas like this, but I don't think we'll see them (credibly) trying to outflank Labour from the left in urban seats any time soon.

[joevsimp]

They won't- but the Greens and Labour should stand down

Why should they? If anything the Liberals should. Goldsmith is lukewarmly in favour of expanding gatwick or stanstead "if and when necessary" but not yet. We're  against any airport expansion and Labour are asking for "assurances" presumably so that they can work out whether the fag packet with their policy written on it is stuck to their arse or their elbow.

With the Tories not standing am official candidate (presumanly so that they don't have to boot Zac out once he's finished with his song and dance) we're  heading for the farcical situation of a byelection being fought on a single issue with no candidate in favour of one side of the argument and the main challenger trying to fight it on a totally different single issue. It's like Haltemprice and Howden all over again but worse (And hopefully we can go one better than then and get a clear 10%)

[joevsimp]

I meant that it would make most sense policy wise for the lib dems to stand down for Goldsmith since they are the closest in policy over airport expansion. But if they're going to run on a different issue then the rest of us should treat it as business as usual: I'm resigned to Brexit happening regardless (eventually) not convinced that the Progressive Alliance(tm) will ever happen * and, frankly, there are enough far worse specimens in the Tory party than ZG that  A.N. Other Lib Dem probably won't be enough of an improvement to realign the political landscape over, I doubt that the  Labour and Green candidates would poll much more than 15% so the lib dems should win on a similar swing to witney from a higher  starting point and with a much lower floor for labour

* having said that though. If Labour stand down first and are willing to make some serious commitments on cooperation for next year and beyond to 2020, then it's worth a go. I just can't see richmond or any other clp agreeing to stand down

[joevsimp]

No Airport expansion, zilch? Like not even just no net expansion (e.g. close City for an expanded Heathrow etc.?)

This whole airport expansion deal confuses me. Especially as seemingly everybody was aware of the HeathrowHub proposal (i.e. expand the Northern runway), didn't point out anything explicitly wrong with it and then proceed with the very flawed Gatwick/third runway plans, anyway.

It's certainly no new runways in the south east (a catchy slogan if ever there was one) not sure about better use of capacity elsewhere (IE  improving rail access and terminal at Luton, dispersing more holiday traffic to there, Southend etc) my workplace is not exactly compatible with me looking up chapters from the Manifesto for Sustainable Society.

As for the Heathrow hub runway extension, it was an independent proposal backed by nobody and you'd still have the problem of crossing the M25. It did address some of the access issues though, and if HS2 ever gets built I'd love to see the option of trains reversing onto the great western line at old oak common to go on to heathrow; 20% of Manchester's passengers are flying connecting flights to heathrow atm

[joevsimp]

Well Labour have at least one potential candidate.  And a pro-runway onre at that

http://wembleymatters.blogspot.com/2016/10/pro-heathrow-cllr-stopp-throws-his-hat.html

[joevsimp]

Better add Sleaford and North Hykeham to this list

This one won't be remotely competitive though. The only party who could probably seriously challenge the Tories here would be UKIP but the chances of them getting their act together between now and the by-election is approximately zilch.

Plus the Tories would be utterly mad to nominate anyone who isn't practically a 'kipper anyway.

The lib dems barely saved their deposit last year and the Greens sat it out. I wonder if either would rather save themselves 500 quid and some death threats for this one?

[joevsimp]

I'm wondering if this might boost Ukip actually, Looking toward Sleaford next week,will leave voters think that if the Tories are being pressured into softening their stance then there is an obvious response to that

[joevsimp]

yeah, there was a piece the other day in the graun saying that Labour's position is losing them support with both leave and remain voters

[joevsimp]

Tristram Hunt has now added another log to Labour's pyre by resigning his seat of Stoke on Trent Central to take up the directorship of the Victoria and Albert Museum.

In 2015 he had a 5000 vote majority over Ukip with the conservatives another 23 votes behind them in third.  It would take an 8.5% swing to either of them to gain it.

Hunt was widely seen as an unpopular imposition of a Metropolitan Elite candidate on an industrial Midlands seat, so Labour would be best advised to pick someone local for this one

[joevsimp]

You wouldn't be implying something about the likelihood of finding any of the PLP down at their local boozer or working men's club there would you?

[joevsimp]

Saw some awful BBC report about Stoke the other day. They featured some guy who they described as a "rare breed - a Remain voter in Stoke". Actually about 1 in 3 voters in Stoke backed Remain so that's a real stretch of the term 'rare breed', just as it would be to describe a Leave voter in Richmond Park as a 'rare breed'.

Anyhow, what chance that Farage returns to the leadership within the next week?

Fun fact: i did some number crunching the otget day. Almost 5 million leave voters live in districts that voted remain, and over 9 million remain voters live in leave voting distrcts, and one million (including my parents and yer man in stoke there) of those are in arwas that voted leave by 65%+