Johnson needs around 10 Labour votes to get it through. Either way it will be close.
This is what’s interesting is the Labour/Leave constituencies in the Northeast especially.
A lot of those MP’s who are on the fence about the deal are likely thinking I’ll be voted out if I vote against it. But that’s a miscalculation: (They obviously should vote based on what they think is best for their country, but if they’re on the fence and thinking about political consequences) Every single vote will make a huge difference so voting for it helps it to pass, while if it gets voted down that puts Labour (and Brexit party for that matter) in a much MUCH better position for a General election. Thus for those Labour Leave areas, I think it’s crucial for those MP’s that whatever they vote it ends up being the actual result