2020 Redistricting in Pennsylvania

[ctherainbow]

Here's my shot at a balanced 5D/7Swing/5R map:



11 counties are split, with multi-splits in Allegheny, Berks, Lancaster, and Philadelphia bringing the total to 17 splits.  2 minority-majority districts in Philadelphia, with one outright Black-majority district.  All districts are relatively compact, as many are competitive as I could reasonably make competitive, and none have a population deviation(this will change when we get the 2020 numbers, but until then) of greater than 0.13%.

This is a map that I would imagine the courts considering, as it is favorable to Dems without being OVERTLY partisan.  It pushes Cartwright and Wild into slightly redder territory, with Houlahan taking in a significant chunk of red territory in Lancaster, endangering her the most of the three.  Lamb's district rotates south, giving up Beaver for the south end Allegheny suburbs, while Doyle absorbs the conservative north end suburbs, still leaving him with a 60%+ Dem seat.  Kelly's seat gets a bit bluer with the addition of Beaver, and in the center of the state, the new 10th District should benefit Dems as well, as Lancaster very slowly continues to blue.

[ctherainbow]

Here's my shot at a balanced 5D/7Swing/5R map:

This is certainly a good map from a COI perspective (assuming Wilkes-Barre is in the 8th, I can't quite tell from the image). I do think most of those "Swing" districts will vote R most of the time.

Thank you!  I was disappointed that I couldn't really find a way to keep the West Shore suburbs with Harrisburg, but honestly I'm not sure they would mind being separated.     xD

And yes, Wilkes-Barre stays in the 8th; Cartwright sheds the red outlying suburbs, but retains the city and inner burbs.  Combining that with the addition of the Stroudsburg area, he's able to absorb Susquehanna and Wyoming counties without the district getting prohibitively redder.

In terms of incumbents, this map would force Houlahan and Scanlon into a primary, as well as pitting Cartwright against Meuser and Lamb against Gooey.  Perry and Smucker swap districts, and the 6th and the 14th end up with no incumbent, though Houlahan and Kelly could easily each move a little west and run in each of them respectively, although Kelly could just stay in the new 15th and have no automatic primary opponent.

And as far as the swing districts go in terms of partisan lean, the 10th and 14th lean Republican, the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 16th are true swing districts, and the 1st leans Democrat.  Of those, the 8th, 14th, and 16th seem to be trending right, the 7th staying about neutral, and the 1st, 6th, and 10th trending left.

[ctherainbow]

Yeah, I’m gonna go with my personal conversation with him and his team about redistricting over Breitbart on this one.  Doesn’t really jive with the fact that he’s been touring the red counties adjoining his district, prepping the local county Dem parties to slug it out if his district gets redder.

[ctherainbow]

Well this map is totally gonna survive a trip through the courts.  Uh-huh.  Yup.

😂😂😂

Sadly though, I have zero doubt that the Commonwealth Court will try to stall out the appeal so that this upcoming election is run under these maps.  Which likely means the GOP picks up Lamb’s open seat and knocks off Cartwright, Houlahan, and Wild, for a 12R/5D delegation.

[ctherainbow]

Well this map is totally gonna survive a trip through the courts.  Uh-huh.  Yup.

😂😂😂

Sadly though, I have zero doubt that the Commonwealth Court will try to stall out the appeal so that this upcoming election is run under these maps.  Which likely means the GOP picks up Lamb’s open seat and knocks off Cartwright, Houlahan, and Wild, for a 12R/5D delegation.

I don't think this is possible. Tom Wolf will probably veto it and punt it to the PASC.

Wolf will 100% veto, so if it gets through the Commonwealth Court before the filing deadline in early March, then yeah, we should end up with a fair map, because the PASC is relatively well versed in mapping at this point.

[ctherainbow]

the **** is this ****

*gives Utah a hug*  First time?

[ctherainbow]

Well this map is totally gonna survive a trip through the courts.  Uh-huh.  Yup.

😂😂😂

Sadly though, I have zero doubt that the Commonwealth Court will try to stall out the appeal so that this upcoming election is run under these maps.  Which likely means the GOP picks up Lamb’s open seat and knocks off Cartwright, Houlahan, and Wild, for a 12R/5D delegation.

I don't think this is possible. Tom Wolf will probably veto it and punt it to the PASC.

Wolf will 100% veto, so if it gets through the Commonwealth Court before the filing deadline in early March, then yeah, we should end up with a fair map, because the PASC is relatively well versed in mapping at this point.

Well my point is that if it's vetoed it doesn't become law, so I don't see how elections could ever be held under this map, unless I'm ignorant of some quirk of Pennsylvania law.

Sorry, you right, my fingers are typing faster than my brain is working.   

[ctherainbow]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSeidman/status/1468673221721563148
Interesting seems like its possible PA gets a map .

Street is also running for Senate and is the Vice Chair of the state party, so I expect that Democrats will have extracted significant concessions here. Perhaps a deal to make all incumbents safe (except Cartwright, b/c one of him or Wild basically need to go realistically) has been reached?

You didn't hear it from me, but there's a good chance that he's going to be Chair before the primary next year.  Nancy Mills is under extreme pressure from the county chairs to resign or face a vote of no confidence.

[ctherainbow]

https://mobile.twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1481686726770839552
This Luzerne ancestrmander might fall quickly.

Not sure I’d read a ton into his retirement as relating to the other Luzerne districts; his is by far the reddest of the competitive Luzerne HDs.  But maybe you’re right, we’ll have to see.

[ctherainbow]

(^ With 2020 Presidential results)



(^ With county lines so you can see the splits)

This is the map I'm submitting directly to the PA Supreme Court for consideration during their mapping deliberation.  Relatively partisan balanced map that strengthens minority representation in the Philly area.  Drawn with complete disregard to incumbent residences, which shows, as there are 3 new open seats from redistricting (4 open seats with Doyle's retirement), and 4 sets of double-bunked reps.  2020 Census and President numbers:

District 1 (Evans):  51.3% VAP Black --> 53.3% VAP Black / 91.3% D --> 89.2% D

District 2 (Open/Formerly Boyle):  59.7% VAP Minority --> 61.5% VAP Minority / 70.2% D --> 76.3% D

District 3 (Boyle/Fitzpatrick):  52.4% D --> 51.3% D

District 4 (Dean):  61.5% D --> 63.4% D

District 5 (Scanlon):  65.1% D --> 60.6% D

District 6 (Houlahan):  56.9% D --> 54.4% D

District 7 (Wild):  51.8% D --> 50.1% D

District 8 (Cartwright):  51.7% R --> 51.3% R

District 9 (Keller/Meuser):  64.5% R --> 68% R

District 10 (Smucker):  60.2% R --> 59.9% R

District 11 (Perry):  50.7% R --> 51.2% R

District 12 (Joyce):  71.6% R --> 71.0% R

District 13 (Open/Formerly Reschenthaler):  63.2% R --> 66.7% R

District 14 (Kelly/Thompson):  71.2% R --> 67.9% R

District 15 (Open/Formerly Kelly):  58.7% R --> 58.5% R

District 16 (Doyle):  64.5% D --> 61.1% D

District 17 (Lamb/Reschenthaler):  50.7% D --> 51.2% D

Population deviation is below 1,000 for every district, with District 16 being within 6 of the ideal district population.  16 county splits compared to 18 on the current map, with no county being split more then twice (the only 3 counties split twice are Montgomery, Philadelphia [which has to be split at least twice], and York).  This map partially reunites Berks and Butler counties by only splitting them between 2 districts each instead of the current map splitting them between 3 districts each.  Zero split precincts and 6 split municipalities across the entire state, and I increased the number of districts contained within a single county to 4, by getting rid of the unnecessary Berks strip in the 4th District.

I could have reduced county splits to 15 and municipal splits to 0 if I was willing to accept greater population variance, but I feel 1,000 is a good target to go by.

Overall, these districts are:

2020 Pres:  9D/8R
2020 AG:  10D/7R
2018 Sen:  11D/6R
2018 Gov:  12D/5R
2016 Pres:  8D/9R
2016 Sen:  7D/10R
2016 AG:  10D/7R

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7207d2a4-a192-4f72-890f-38bce911db37

Thoughts?