LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Democrats will likely have a Keystone XL vote, the goal being to help Landrieu.

Miles I know its painful, but where is my damn NC maps?

I'm getting there. To give you some context, I haven't even brought myself to watch Tillis' victory speech yet

[njwes]

hahah omg this ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzusZhB9Uyw&feature=youtu.be

LMAO jesus christ I've been around people tweaking on meth far more coherent than that. Brb looking up whole speech.

[njwes]

For anyone who's curious, though sadly the whole speech is less hilarious than promised

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Democrats will likely have a Keystone XL vote, the goal being to help Landrieu.

Miles I know its painful, but where is my damn NC maps?

I'm getting there. To give you some context, I haven't even brought myself to watch Tillis' victory speech yet

He gave a victory speech?

I saw a clip, "The only thing the gov't can give you without taking something from someone else, is your freedom".  

You don't need to see it if you have followed him the past four years.

[Miles]

I'm gonna do a bit more on this, but here's Haugh's percentage by county:



I'd guess he took from Tillis in the west but Hagan in the east.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I'd guess he took from Tillis in the west but Hagan in the east.

Looks like Haugh sucked conservadem votes from Hagan in the east, is that correct?

[Miles]

I'd guess he took from Tillis in the west but Hagan in the east.

Looks like Haugh sucked conservadem votes from Hagan in the east, is that correct?

Whats interesting is that the (only) debate Haugh was in aired exclusively in the Wilimington media market. Thats basically why that cluster of counties in the southeastern corner of the state is darker. The exposure definitely helped him there.

Actually, there's a interesting urban/rural dichotomy even within the southeast region itself.

There are Blue Dogs in those counties (especially Bladen, Columbus) that probably thought Hagan was too close to Obama, so voted for Haugh in protest.

New Hanover County (Wilmington), by contrast, is the most urban. Hagan actually ran ahead of Obama there. Typically, New Hanover is about 2-5% to the right of the statewide total. Tillis only carried it by 60 votes, suggesting moderate Republicans went to Haugh.  

[RogueBeaver]

McConnell promises to appoint Cassidy to Energy.

[Maxwell]

Yea, Landrieu is gonna get Blanched.

[Miles]

And this also isn't encouraging:

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[windjammer]

Yea, Landrieu is gonna get Blanched.

[IceSpear]

And this also isn't encouraging:

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That's odd...doesn't Landrieu have her own war chest? Or did she spend it all?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Watching Landrieu this afternoon on C-Span 2 (first time in six years I have watched Congress/Senate live), I must say that this is not the Senator Landrieu I remembered in 2005, 2006 and 2007. She sounded desperate and tried to run against Mitch McConnell as if he was already Majority Leader and whip up some kind of outrage because Cornyn listed Keystone as a proposal for next year and McConnell didn't mention it with regards to the lame duck session a day or two ago.

Granted I didn't see the comments she was referring to but I would assume that Republicans were focusing on what could get done and until last night it was rather unlikely that Keystone would be any more viable then repealing Obamacare prior to January.

Landrieu's delivery on centrism came off as bland and she decried the entry of politics into the equation, yet there was not a single aspect of her remarks from the McConnell thing to the meandering praise/critcism/praise/criticism for Senator Markey (who proceeded to talk about Mayor Menino's legacy not Keystone) and finally the issue itself that was not touched by the fact that she is up for reelection next month and the inauthenticity that her remarks reaked of bare that out.

If this is her "Hail Mary" pass, it looks far more like McCain suspending his campaign in 2008 to "Fix the economy" as if it were some kind of foreign policy crisis, only to look like an out of the loop and uninformed dinosaur, then an October November surprise that will avert Landrieu's defeat.

She also kept running over her time and asked at one point how much time she had left. I could thing of only one proper response:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPX48NpSRvo

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I am reminded of what Jim Gerlach said after 2006 on C-Span about how he had a bill on some issue that would garner Democratic support but he was repeatedly told or Democratic members were told, "You cannot work on a bill with Jim, he is our top target in 2006".

Landrieu is now the top targetted Democrat, the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent between now and 2018 and thus is feeling that a thousand times over. I would hate to be in her position of being regarded as litterally a dead woman walking. The Democrats aren't doing much to help her and Republicans are pretending she doesn't exist (they did mention Bill Cassidy several times though). I think that is exemplified of how much Democrats have given up on saving her and thus not willing to risk even the slightest agnering of the donors/base to give her some help. I think Manchin spoke earlier but that was it, maybe Tester as well.

Also I believe Manchin voted against a judge appointee earlier, the only one to join with the Republicans in doing so.

[njwes]

Landrieu's giving a speech on C-SPAN 2 on Keystone XL atm. Can't quite tell if it's great or a train wreck. She does seem pretty pissed and exacerbated at her fellow Dems.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Landrieu's giving a speech on C-SPAN 2 on Keystone XL atm. Can't quite tell if it's great or a train wreck. She does seem pretty pissed and exacerbated at her fellow Dems.

It is not as bad as it was earlier when she wanted to tear Markey a new one, but then decided to be the nice centrist, then decided to criticis him before finally praising him once again. SHe is pissed at everybody. Its almost like an old dixiecrat running against both parties, "not a dime's worth of difference...".

Landrieu on possibility of a veto is wishful thinking, "If the Senate does a bit better, maybe the hosue will do a bit better and thne maybe the White House will as well".

She did pledge to vote to override a veto.

[njwes]

Landrieu's giving a speech on C-SPAN 2 on Keystone XL atm. Can't quite tell if it's great or a train wreck. She does seem pretty pissed and exacerbated at her fellow Dems.

It is not as bad as it was earlier when she wanted to tear Markey a new one, but then decided to be the nice centrist, then decided to criticis him before finally praising him once again. SHe is pissed at everybody. Its almost like an old dixiecrat running against both parties, "not a dime's worth of difference...".

Landrieu on possibility of a veto is wishful thinking, "If the Senate does a bit better, maybe the hosue will do a bit better and thne maybe the White House will as well".

She did pledge to vote to override a veto.

She also said she's pretty sure Keystone will get at least 60, 61 votes; I wonder if that's true. Just looking at the map I'm wondering where the 16 Dem/IndyDem votes will come from.

[Lief 🗽]

I guess Mary is committed to die as she lived: voting like a Republican. Good riddance, looking forward to the President vetoing this nonsense.

[njwes]

I guess Mary is committed to die as she lived: voting like a Republican. Good riddance, looking forward to the President vetoing this nonsense.

She voted with Dem's ~88% of the time, you're a hack.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I guess Mary is committed to die as she lived: voting like a Republican. Good riddance, looking forward to the President vetoing this nonsense.

$1 billion in Hollywood and Enviromentalist donations for Hillary and Dem candidates > LA Class II, the Dem's last Reconstruction seat.


Switched over to the House on C-Span, Waxman not too concerned about Landrieu. Sounded rather dismissive.

"Maybe everybody in LA is for it, but..."

[Keystone Phil]

What an absolutely pitifully desperate and disgraceful tactic.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Senate Democrats are epic HPs for thinking Keystone XL will somehow save Landreiu instead of approving as many judges as possible.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Senate Democrats are epic HPs for thinking Keystone XL will somehow save Landreiu instead of approving as many judges as possible.

[KCDem]

Hopefully Republican-lite gets crushed.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hopefully Republican-lite gets crushed.

There is no hopefully, Landreiu is toast regardless.