The Trond can't help it...

[Verily]

New Jersey
With just one county under 100,000 inhabitants, just 6 under 200,000, and only 3 over one constituency in size, 5 additional county splits is the best I could do... :/ (Could be dramatically fewer on a 5% variation, I think...)

My analysis:

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Strong Democratic

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Democratic (presumably most of southern Bergen with central and northeastern Bergen; my district)

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Democratic (presumably northwestern Bergen; Paterson-Clifton-Passaic outweigh conservative areas)

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Strong Democratic

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Weak Republican, maybe stronger depending on how Essex is split

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Strong Democratic

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Democratic

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Strong Republican

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Democratic

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Strong Democratic

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Republican

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Strong Republican

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Weak Republican


Very favorable to Democrats (gain of at least one seat), but the current map was drawn to be favorable to Republicans.

[Verily]

Here's a map of that redistricting with my guesses as to how each county would be split geographically. (I tried to take into account areas of particular cultural similarity when splitting counties.) Districts 9 and 12 have an awful border; I would rejig 9, 11 and 12 to cross more county lines.

[Verily]

I was interested in what exactly the Bergen map would look like, so I created the one below. Red is the Bergen district (NJ-02). Blue areas go to the Passaic district (NJ-03), and yellow areas go to the Hudson district (NJ-01).



These towns are in the Bergen district:
Hackensack
Bogota
Englewood
Englewood Cliffs
Teaneck
Leonia
Fort Lee
Bergenfield
Tenafly
Edgewater
Cliffside Park
Palisades Park
Paramus
River Edge
New Milford
Oradell
Creskill
Alpine
Ridgefield
Fairview
Ridgefield Park
Emerson
Haworth
Dumont
Demarest
Closter
Maywood
Rochelle Park
Norwood
Rockleigh
Northvale
Old Tappan
Harrington Park
Westwood
River Vale
Montvale
Hillsdale
Washington
Little Ferry
South Hackensack
Teterboro
Moonachie
Carlstadt
Hasbrouck Heights
Woodcliff Lake
Ho-Ho-Kus
Lodi
Park Ridge
Saddle River
Ridgewood
Wood-Ridge
Saddle Brook
Wallington
East Rutherford
Rutherford


These are in the Hudson district:
Lyndhurst
North Arlington

And the rest are in the Passaic district.