Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Frodo]

If you want to help Ukraine keep their state sovereignty, actually commit stuff of material value to them like equipment and troops. I see the U.S. and UK have done this, although I read the UK were required to not use Dutch and German aerospace in their delivery.

Actually that's not entirely true:

No, Germany Did Not Deny RAF C-17s Bound For Ukraine Access to Its Airspace

In fact, it seems that the decision to avoid the German airspace was made deliberately by the RAF planners, and the British C-17s were not really forced to fly around the German territory: aircraft carrying specific kinds of cargo and/or weapons require a dedicated clearance that the UK did not apply for (for reasons yet to be disclosed – although time might have been a factor here); hence the route avoiding the German airspace.

At the same time, as noted by several reporters and analysts, while the nature of their mission is completely different, Germany has no problem in allowing NATO SIGINT/ELINT assets to fly through its airspace on their way to Ukraine, were several ISR (Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance) aircraft are operating in these days, to keep an eye on the movement of forces near the borders.

Although you do have to ask yourself why the Royal Air Force took it upon themselves to avoid German airspace.  

[Frodo]

The British government says it’s intelligence indicates that Russia will attempt a regime change in Ukraine

https://apnews.com/article/d6425c531f277b9dfb099511999822f4

This would disgrace the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians that rallied for and won their self governance eight years ago. Biden and Boris better toughen up immediately.

The last thing Biden needs at this juncture is to appear as weak and feckless as President Carter was during the Iran hostage crisis.  Especially in the wake of our less-than-ideal withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer.  For heaven's sake, he tried to present himself during the campaign as the Democratic equivalent of President George H. W. Bush with his supposedly vast foreign policy experience as head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  I would like to see him prove it. 

[Frodo]

The British government says it’s intelligence indicates that Russia will attempt a regime change in Ukraine

https://apnews.com/article/d6425c531f277b9dfb099511999822f4

This would disgrace the hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians that rallied for and won their self governance eight years ago. Biden and Boris better toughen up immediately.

The last thing Biden needs at this juncture is to appear as weak and feckless as President Carter was during the Iran hostage crisis.  Especially in the wake of our less-than-ideal withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer.  For heaven's sake, he tried to present himself during the campaign as the Democratic equivalent of President George H. W. Bush with his supposedly vast foreign policy experience as head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  I would like to see him prove it.  

Prove it how?

All the suggestions that people have for Biden "acting tough" are essentially suggesting that he escalate the situation. I can understand why people think that might be the necessary thing, but I don't see that being a politically successful thing.

The problem with comparing 2022 to 1979 is that the American public are now much less supportive of military intervention of any kind.

When Russians smell weakness or hesitation, they jump for the jugular.  Hadn't President John F. Kennedy's supposed inexperience precipitate the Cuban Missile Crisis? Appeasing Putin is just as likely to whet his appetite for further adventures at our expense, thereby further 'escalating the situation'.  So I am glad that President Biden is at least considering sending American troops (I would rather he had done so already and announced the fact afterwards) to our NATO allies at the periphery to ward off any thoughts by Putin of attacking Poland or the Baltic states.  And to further deter Putin, I would support moving our bases in Germany and Italy to Poland and Romania.  Then Putin would be faced with the question on whether he can risk 'escalating the situation'.  

[Frodo]

Orban, as is to be expected, is aligning himself with Putin:

Strongmen strut their stuff as Orbán visits Putin in Russia

Hungary should never have been allowed into NATO or the European Union. 

[Frodo]

I don't have any remaining doubts that there will be a Russian invasion of Ukraine.  The question is how big it will be, and how much Ukrainian territory will come under Russian occupation -hopefully not the whole country.  I just hope Russia is prepared for the likelihood of two new countries (Finland and Sweden) joining NATO as a direct result, and the movement of our bases (along with the infrastructure) in Germany and Italy to Poland and Romania, and further reinforcements heading to the Baltic states, and the overall reinvigoration of the NATO alliance. 

I thank Vladimir Putin for reminding everyone of the original purpose of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and the value it still holds.     

[Frodo]

I don't think so. I see a lot of people from other countries pointing fingers on Nord-Stream 2 and the gas dependence to be the roots of German appeasing approach towards Moscow. It surely is one of the reasons, but not the major one. German culture and mentality have by far the largest impact on its foreign policy.

 People learn from school to reject anything related to war. I, who went to school in Ukraine as well as in Germany, have noticed a great difference in the way history is brought to the students. German history books don't praise national heroes or military leaders. In fact even while describing wars the focus always seems to be NOT on generals and battles, but on suffering of simple people and on diplomatic efforts to solve the conflict.

It is also popular in german pop culture to mock the US and its militarism. Going to war to defend Ukraine in case of Russian attack isn't and has never been even an option here. In fact even speculating about any kind of military operation could mean a political suicide. As recent polls show, the majority of Germans even seem to oppose any new sanctions against Russia. In contrast people seem to prefer either a status quo, or even lifting current sanctions and making steps to reestablish a friendly relationship with russian government.

 Long story short: ignoring the social aspects and reducing the issue to just "Germany wants cheap russian gas" is stupid and won't help you to understand the motives.

Came across this interesting comment in a Youtube comment section, regarding the German government's seeming softness (trying to use a neutral descriptor here) on this issue.

While a lot of these points have merit - particularly the deep-rooted post-WWII pacifism which ironically is also a result of the denazification conducted by the Western allies - I would point out that recent opinion polling has showed that about half of my country does in fact support tougher economic sanctions against Russia, and there would be even a clearer majority on that one without the generally more pro-Russian eastern parts of Germany. The same opinion polling also shows that a definite majority of the German population opposes giving Russia weapons though, which is in fact a direct result of the aforementioned pacifism (that was pre-Donbass recognition though, don't know how the numbers would look like right now).

You mean Ukraine?

[Frodo]

How will China respond?

They've been tepid in their response so far.

They are watching and waiting to see how the world responds to Putin's aggression, as what happens in Ukraine will determine their course of action on Taiwan.  If we are tepid and timid in responding to Putin, it will encourage the Chinese Communists in their bid to take that island nation.  

[Frodo]

How will China respond?

They've been tepid in their response so far.

They are watching and waiting to see how the world responds to Putin's aggression, as what happens in Ukraine will determine their course of action on Taiwan.  If we are tepid and timid in responding to Putin, it will encourage the Chinese Communists in their bid to take that island nation.  

The only difference is that the US navy is active in the straights between China and Taiwan.

Which the Chinese have been working to neutralize in the last twenty-five years or so since they last tried to force Taiwan to heel.  

[Frodo]

Finland and Sweden are more than welcome to change their minds and officially join NATO...  

[Frodo]

Finland and Sweden are more than welcome to change their minds and officially join NATO...  

Russia can't invade everyone at once, I'd fast-track that sh*t rn

As long as they are outside NATO, they will always be vulnerable to a Russian invasion.  I am sure that is going through their minds as they watch what unfolds in Ukraine.  

[Frodo]

Anybody else leaning towards the concept that Russia is moving towards a full scale invasion and occupation?

Could be a great Putin bluff, but why go all out unless you are looking for the best position on the chessboard?

There is no possible case that it is limited to Donetsk/Luhansk, given that we have video of troops crossing from Belarus into Northern Ukraine etc, which is nowhere near.

It is possible that Putin may not want to occupy 100% of Ukraine all the way to the Polish border, but it is clearly not some small portion of it that he has in mind.

It could be that Putin is aiming to acquire all of Ukraine (including Kiev) east of the Dneiper, leaving the Ukrainian pro-Western portion alone for now.  This is assuming he isn't going to launch an amphibious invasion to take Odessa (and beyond) and thus strip Ukraine of its access to the Black Sea.

Wait, I see someone has already preceded me:

It could be that Putin wants to use the status of Luhansk and Donestsk to push the border up to the Dniper, thereby leaving a rump Western Ukrainian state with Kyiv still as it's capital while swallowing up the rest of Ukraine. This is just speculation though and Putin's aims are included in the fog of war.

Edit: On second thought, I can't see Putin pushing up to the Dniper and not annexing Kiev even if it's not the same bank of the Dniper.

[Frodo]

Won’t Sactions just cripple the lives of everyday Russians instead of actually ending the war?

They support Putin for two main reasons:

1. MRGA (Make Russia Great Again)

2. Raise their living standards

This is where sanctions can really bite, and why Putin made certain to get the economic support of China to at least mitigate their impact.  He knows those sanctions that the West have in mind could potentially endanger his regime's survival.  

[Frodo]

if Kiev does eventually fall, the legitimate Ukrainian government should make Lviv its new capital, and fight on from there.  

[Frodo]

And as a public service, here is a detailed map of Ukraine to help everyone keep track of where everything is as this conflict continues:

[Frodo]

Even if, Allah forbid, Kyiv falls, hopefully the Ukrainians will send enough Russians back home in body bags to make the war effort untenable in Russia itself.

Every Ukrainian patriot is probably busy preparing IEDs for use on Russian occupation forces (if it comes to that).  And we should do everything possible to prop up guerrilla forces throughout the country with whatever weapons, ammunition, and other supplies that they may need.

[Frodo]

Looks like the Russians have taken Melitopol and are pushing from the southeast to encircle Mariopol and roll up the Donbas front. Ukraine has stalled the Russian advance in the north but my worry is that it won't matter much if they can't stall the push from Crimea.

What especially galls me is that the Ukrainian military could have easily stalled the Russians at the bottleneck north of Crimea too.  It wouldn't have taken many troops either.  

[Frodo]

Looks like the Russians have taken Melitopol and are pushing from the southeast to encircle Mariopol and roll up the Donbas front. Ukraine has stalled the Russian advance in the north but my worry is that it won't matter much if they can't stall the push from Crimea.

What especially galls me is that the Ukrainian military could have easily stalled the Russians at the bottleneck north of Crimea too.  It wouldn't have taken many troops either.  

Not really. Open ground, perfect for airstrikes and artillery bombardment and close to Russian bases. Ukrainian forces have been effective in stopping the Russians in urban areas (like Kherson), but standing and fighting in open countryside would be suicide.

Looks like the Russians have taken Melitopol and are pushing from the southeast to encircle Mariopol and roll up the Donbas front. Ukraine has stalled the Russian advance in the north but my worry is that it won't matter much if they can't stall the push from Crimea.

Do the Russians have more competent commanding officers in the south or is it more of a matter of where Ukraine's defenses are concentrated?

Not sure. Open terrain probably the biggest factor. Melitopol the only major city between Crimea and the east of the country.

Yeah, just looking at this topographic map of Ukraine you can see how the area between the Dnieper and Crimea is very flat and open, even by Ukrainian standards:

Yes, I embarrassed myself.  That's my fault for casually looking at a map without also checking its topography. 

[Frodo]

There may be no official sanctions on the Russian energy sector as of yet, but tanker owners are imposing an impromptu version regardless:

Tanker Owners Are Turning Their Backs On Russian Oil

[Frodo]

On a serious note, I'm still doubtful there can be military victory for Ukraine. Best case outcome would be a stalemate and Putin for now retreats to already occupied territory, or he'll be ousted by Russian oligarchs who have enough of international isolation, especially if the PRC makes moves.

The ultimate goal I have in all this is that Russia's experience in Ukraine deters China from making any similar moves on Taiwan in the foreseeable future.  As long as that is achieved, I consider whatever outcome emerges in Ukraine as a win.  

[Frodo]

Germany says it's sending anti-tank weapons, stinger missiles to Ukraine

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Serbia and India are hardly alone in failing to condemn the Russian invasion:

Israel fails to sign onto US text condemning Russia at UNSC

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Putin's actions in Ukraine are undermining far right political parties, including in France and Italy:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/26/world/europe/russia-putin-matteo-salvini-marine-le-pen.html

God bless him. 

[Frodo]

It seems Vladimir Putin wasted his time going to Beijing during the Winter Olympics to secure Xi Jinping's support for his upcoming invasion of Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/humeyra_pamuk/status/1497771282565369858
So much for that feared Russia-China alliance across the length and breadth of Eurasia that some here have been worrying about.  China hasn't been proving itself much of an ally for Russia at all.

[Frodo]

I'm curious about the possibility of non-nuclear NATO intervention? Say, the Spanish, Canadians, Polish, & Baltics going into Ukraine while the Americans, British, & French just lurk nearby in Poland. After all, Article 5 only exists for defensive initiation, so involving the nuclear card won't be required unless Putin provoked us into it by directly attacking NATO soil.

I was just thinking about NATO securing western Ukraine (with Lviv as the capital) as a buffer state against the Russians.  

Sort of like the 21st century version of the division of Germany into its eastern and western halves during the Cold War only this time it happens to Ukraine (and maybe Kiev too, taking the place of Berlin). 

[Frodo]

Even Switzerland is no longer neutral:

Even Switzerland is getting tougher on Russia: EU sanctions will apply there