Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[Lord Halifax]

Well, I never saw anything about Brazilian politics or Brazil in general, so I'm starting this thread

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=148240.0

[Lord Halifax]

It appears Fernando Collor de Melo is running again.

Glorious news!

[Lord Halifax]

Bolsonaro has offered the VP spot for the Party of the Republic (PR), more specifically to senator Magno Malta from Espirito Santo. Magno is not exactly a surprising choice, he always seemed to be close to Bolsonaro and by having him as VP, Bolsonaro can have way more ad time on TV.

Malta was one of the fiercest supporters of the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff on the senate and unsurprisingly, he is a religious conservative like Bolsonaro.

Why is that?

[Lord Halifax]

But Richa has more deep links to another two governorship candidates who are governor Cida Borghetti who was his lieutenant governor and Carlos Massa "Ratinho" Junior (PSD), son of famous TV host Ratinho (Brazilian's Jerry Springer) who was secretary in his cabinet. Many people say that Car Wash wants Richa arrested to show isention and that

The end of that sentence seems to be missing and isention isn't a word.

[Lord Halifax]

Why is Gomes consistently doing better in the run-off polls than Haddad? Is it simply a matter of PT being tainted by corruption or are there other factors at work?

[Lord Halifax]

CNT/MDA poll 

Bolsonaro   28.2
Haddad       17.6
Gomes        10.8
Alckmin        6.1
Silva            4.1

In runoff scenarios:
Gomes 37.8% vs Bolsonaro 36.1%
Bolsonaro 39% vs Haddad 35.7%
Bolsonaro 38.2% vs Alckmin 27.7%
Bolsonaro 39.4% vs Marina Silva 28.2%

Any path for Gomes to catch up to Haddad?

[Lord Halifax]

Seems pretty consistent with all the others. It seems that PT is likely to win again for the 5th election in a row.

Did Bolsonaro made some kind of gaffe or major error that gave Haddad a chance to pass him? I thought the "will not vote PT under any circumstances" vote would block him.

[Lord Halifax]

What caused the realignment between 2002 and 2006? It went from PT dominating all along the coast to losing the southern part of that belt and having the NE/N as its stronghold (there is an overlap in the NE, but the difference is striking).

[Lord Halifax]

In Venezuela, a lot of opposition voters are happy with the prospect of Bolsonaro winning. It's mainly based on the fact that a Haddad victory would be a big blow to us considering Maduro would gain a new ally, and that's just exactly not what we need right now. And while I definitely don't want a guy like Haddad wining, Bolsonaro certainly isn't a candidate I like. His comments and positions are appalling, and I hope his incendiary comments don't translate to policies.

Do you think there is a chance Bolsonaro would invade Venezuela and finish off the Maduro regime?

[Lord Halifax]

Anti-Bolsonaro rallies happened in 29 cities today across 15 states. Pro-Bolsonaro rallies have been organizes and will happen tomorrow. Nothing that relevant happened today except that.

Bolsonaro said he'll try to get rid of re-elections. Marina is going to meet with Popular Socialist Party (PPS) leader to talk about fusing the parties.

What does that mean? That no one can run for more than one term?

[Lord Halifax]

Anti-Bolsonaro rallies happened in 29 cities today across 15 states. Pro-Bolsonaro rallies have been organizes and will happen tomorrow. Nothing that relevant happened today except that.

Bolsonaro said he'll try to get rid of re-elections. Marina is going to meet with Popular Socialist Party (PPS) leader to talk about fusing the parties.

What does that mean? That no one can run for more than one term?

He didn't specify if it was only for certain offices such as president or not.

So he isn't planning on running for reelection?

[Lord Halifax]

These polls are all over the place. Which ones are most credible?

[Lord Halifax]

These polls are all over the place. Which ones are most credible?

Does it really matter? They all show Bolsonaro winning easily.

I see you're not a betting man.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4950/What-will-the-margin-be-in-the-2nd-round-Brazilian-election

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4951/Will-winner-of-2nd-round-Brazilian-election-exceed-60

[Lord Halifax]

New polls:

Vox Populi

Bolsonaro 43%
Haddad 43%
Blank/null/none 9%
Don't know 5%

Valid votes

Bolsonaro 50%
Haddad 50%

Do you have any explanation of why this is so different from the other polls? How good a pollster is Vox Populi?

[Lord Halifax]

Prediction:  Bolsonaro 53 Haddad 47

I am torn between 55-45 and 56-44 as the most likely, but the race has definitely tightened and it seems likely more voters will get cold feet about Bolsonaro in the final days, so maybe you are right.

It's important to remember Bolsonaro is the more radical choice and thereby also the more risky one, and he has doubled down on some of his anti-democratic statements lately.