How would have Hillary's 2008 map differed?

[henster]

I think she would have won the PV by 53-44 and the EV 380 - 158. We have to remember Bush's approval rating were in 20s and the subsequent economic collapse that caused Obama's numbers to surge and McCain's awful response. These events would've likely benefited Hillary just as much and I think Obama slightly underperformed what a generic D would've that year.

[henster]

Obviously, some of this was underdog sympathy but by the end of the '08 primaries, Clinton was leading McCain, in some cases substantially, in polls of Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri and West Virginia. She trailed narrowly (five or less) in four Obama states: CO, IA, NC, WI. The one O state where she trailed badly (nine points) was VA, but Obama was down eight in the same poll.

Now, what happened between May and the election? The economy crashed. This would only have helped Clinton's chances, just as it did Obama's IRL. Arguably it would have helped her more because of her husband's economic record.

I don't think she would have carried Louisiana. She might not have focused on Indiana or the district in Nebraska. But her potential to carry Southern/border states while holding on to most of Obama's map was clearly there based on contemporaneous polling.  

I forgot to check "always remain logged in" box, so my long detailed answer was lost.

To summarize:

With the exception of AR, the polls cited show Hillary usually doing poorly (e.g. KY) or middling (IN & MO) against McCain in the McCain states you mentioned (the only WV poll showed her 5 points up in Feb, fwiw). By contrast, she was regularly and consistently losing most of the Obama states mentioned (see NC, VA, CO, IA, WI).

While the economic crisis that fall would've benefited Clinton as it did Obama, and McCain couldn't have realistically made up the 9+ point margins against Clinton in CO, IA, WI, and even the 6.3% margin in VA probably wouldn't disappear with Hillary, he would've likely made up the teensy margin he lost NC to Obama by. Likewise, Hillary would've never matched Obamas ground game which is what oh so narrowly carried IN and NE-2 for him (both of which even Bubba lost), so those likely go Republican as well.

On the other hand, while Hillary probably couldn't equal the turnout Obama produced in KC and (especially) St. Louis, she'd appeal to voters throughout the rest of the state much better, particularly in the Ozark SW, and thus likely erase McCain's tiny 4000 vote margin in MO. Similarly, the Friends of Bill state just to the south would likely come home for the Clintons again.

So the likely correct answer is: flip NC, IN, & NE-2 Republican, flip MO and AR Democrat, with an outside unlikely chance of WV and/or VA flipping by surprise.

I think Hillary would've done better among whites than Obama and made up for the lower black turnout. Obama lost whites (55-43) in 08 I think Hillary could've gotten closer maybe (54-45) or (53-46) that certainty would've made the difference in NC, MO and other states.