In NM-2, Will Wilson be Redistricted?

[Sam Spade]

Problem is that NM-02 is Pearce's CD, not Wilson's (NM-01).

I love pointing out obvious errors by professionals. 

[Sam Spade]

Isn't Wilson expected to try and succeed Domenici in 2008 anyway?  And wouldn't it be unnecessary to redraw NM-1 if that happens because Wilson is the only Republican who can win there so once she tries for a Senate seat the Democrats will be overwhelmingly favored in NM-1 anyway?

Domenici is supposedly running again in 2008 from all NM sources I know of.  Besides, even if he didn't run, you might get a "battle royale" between Wilson and Steve Pearce (congressman of NM-02) for the GOP nomination of which I wouldn't know who would win.

And don't be so sure that NM-01 would switch if Wilson left.  That CD's been in GOP hands for nearly 40 years now (ever since NM switched to districts from at-large seats), even though Dems always have the registration advantage and have been trying to knock the Republican out since the beginning of time.

[Sam Spade]

Isn't Wilson expected to try and succeed Domenici in 2008 anyway?  And wouldn't it be unnecessary to redraw NM-1 if that happens because Wilson is the only Republican who can win there so once she tries for a Senate seat the Democrats will be overwhelmingly favored in NM-1 anyway?

Domenici is supposedly running again in 2008 from all NM sources I know of.  Besides, even if he didn't run, you might get a "battle royale" between Wilson and Steve Pearce (congressman of NM-02) for the GOP nomination of which I wouldn't know who would win.

And don't be so sure that NM-01 would switch if Wilson left.  That CD's been in GOP hands for nearly 40 years now (ever since NM switched to districts from at-large seats), even though Dems always have the registration advantage and have been trying to knock the Republican out since the beginning of time.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
What Sam said.

Also, two bits:
1 - The effort is being led by Super-Leftist State Senator Gerald Ortiz y Pino, one of my least favorite state politicians. They're not even trying to hide this, are they?
2 - Pino is said to be trying to explain away the effort as "making the district more urban". If that's true, then I will eagerly await the addition of the Republican-leaning NW precincts of Albuquerque to NM-1! Oh, wait, I bet that will be 'different'.

I have a question:   In everything I've read about the possible redistricting, they talk about placing the rest of Valencia County in NM-01 and taking Torrance County into NM-02.  But the numbers don't fit according to my math; there are many more people in the remaining parts of Valencia County than Torrance County.  Does that mean they're taking more of NM-01 into NM-02 or less of Valencia into NM-01?

Secondly, if I am doing my math right in 2004 & 2006, the numbers looked like this:

2004 - Valencia County
Bush 55.6%

2004 - NM-01 part of Valencia County
Bush 55.9%
Wilson 61.4% (under CD margin by 1% vis a vis Bush)

2006 - NM-01 part of Valencia County
Wilson 53.0% (about a 4% loss vis a vis 2004 in comparison with CD totals)

2004 - NM-02 part of Valencia County
Bush 55.5%
Pearce 56.8%

2006 - NM-02 part of Valencia County
Pearce 60.0% (an odd gain, quite impressive)

2004 - Torrance County
Bush 61.9%
Wilson 66.5% (under CD margin by 1% vis-a-vis Bush)

2006 - Torrance County
Wilson 60.9% (about a 3% loss vis-a-vis 2004 CD totals)

So, I see maybe a 5%-8% switch within the two counties that might be amplified to 10% under best circumstances (maybe 15% with a person from Valencia running).  Depending on how much is changed, that's probably maximum a 600-1600 vote switch.  That might have not even helped Madrid win in 2006 under correct circumstances.

So, is there something grand here that I'm missing.  I think there might be ways to draw the CD to get Wilson out, but it would involve carving up Albequerque even more.  Would the Dems do that?

Maybe my issue with the earlier numbers means that Wilson would get the more Democratic-leaning precincts, but there don't appear to be hardly any within Valencia.  They appear to be all swing precincts or slightly Republican ones vis-a-vis 2004.

[Sam Spade]

This is mainly just an information post for those who aren't educated on the matter.

The early 90s Frost version only jimrtex has, but you could probably find it on Polidata if you have a subscription.

But all other Texas maps can be found here (and clicking on All Redistricting Plans):

http://gis1.tlc.state.tx.us/

The 1996 court redraw was the same as the 107th Congress.

The 2002 court redraw was the same as the 108th Congress.

The 2004 legislature redraw was the same as the 109th Congress.

The 2006 court redraw is the present map (with 5 CDs changed).

I may give an opinion later; I may not.

[Sam Spade]

Yep, WMS, it ain't viewable in Firefox.  Unfortunately, you have to use old IE to get it to work properly.

I should really add that NM-03 really isn't that "safe Dem" of a seat (look at 2000 and 2004 numbers against the spread).  Dems just have a fairly strong incumbent there right now and a GOP who refuses to run anyone worth mentioning against him.

Besides, NM voters are very unpredictable, especially where WMS is.  You can't expect them to give you the results you want just because you gerrymander it to be so.  Those aren't typical hyper-GOP suburbs or hyper-Dem urban areas.