Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

If I were the Jones campaign, I'd try to quietly contact as many Hillary voters as I can, and try to increase black turnout as much as possible, perhaps through church networks. Winning over Republicans is a fool's errand.

Not enough democrats in the state to win based on that alone.

I think turnout will be depressed among all groups, just because it's a special election in an off year and an off month. Also, if Strange is the nominee, Republicans will also not be really inspired to turn out to vote.

There were 795,696 Obama 2012 voters in Alabama.

In 2014, Sessions received 795,606 votes, uncontested.
2014 House elections:
Republicans - 704,000 votes
Democrats - 331,000 votes, which means nearly 100,000 Democratic voters voted for Sessions.

This leaves us with about 700,000 Republican midterm votes, approximately 41% turnout . If turnout is higher than SC-05 (18%), lets say 25% (with Republicans) , that means about 430,000 votes for the Republican. This means that Jones needs to have turnout of 54% of Obama 2012 voters. A difficult task, nigh-impossible, but just nigh.

It makes sense, but unfortunately there just isn't the sort of infrastructure in Alabama to do that *right now*. If someone invested money and time in building up party infrastructure in red states for a few years, we'd be able to take advantage of opportunities like this.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Well, there we have it. Moore gets his and Pittman's voters, and Strange gets the balance. Result: Strange wins Runoff 54-46.

again.

why would brooks voters vote for Strange?

Both are establishment republicans.

The term "establishment" means nothing if you are going to use it to refer to a member of the Freedom Caucus.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHA BROOKS AN ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICAN

i mean do you read what you're typing

Brooks is a Cruz-wing Republican who said that there was a "War on Whites". He primaried an incumbent. Brooks is anti-establishment, just as anti-establishment as Roy Moore.

I have confidence in the sanity of the Alabama Republicans who did not vote for Moore or Pittman in the primary. While both Rs are terrible, Strange is clearly less terrible.

Are we that far removed from 2016 that people are now failing to realize that being "less terrible" won't win you elections?

The mainstream Alabama GOP are as far right as you get anywhere in this country, but there are even worse people hiding in the shadows who will come out and vote for Moore because they actually agree with his lunacy.

Not to mention that Strange ran pretty vicious attacks against Brooks before the runoff IIRC.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

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Seems in tune with what most americans want out of DC in this day and age tbh.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

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Seems in tune with what most americans want out of DC in this day and age tbh.

Most Americans didn't vote for Donald Trump and most don't approve of the job he's doing as President either.

Wut.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

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Seems in tune with what most americans want out of DC in this day and age tbh.

Most Americans didn't vote for Donald Trump and most don't approve of the job he's doing as President either.

Wut.

Which part confuses you?

I don't really see what that has to do with my original message, at all.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Very sad to see wannabe war criminal Bill Kristol being given a voice. I hope Jones disavows his endorsement.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Very sad to see wannabe war criminal Bill Kristol being given a voice. I hope Jones disavows his endorsement.

If you are expecting left wing partisanship in Alabama, then I have a bridge to sell you in Alaska.

Wow, really? A whole bridge???

fr tho Jones should disavow the endorsement just because no one likes Bill Kristol/ the DC never trump nerds, not because he wants to kill millions of people for his abstract failed notion of American empire.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

That could easily hurt Jones. People tend to take pride in the state they live in.

Jones has such little room to mess up.

I think the only people likely to care very much about this are already planning to vote for Moore.

I hate the double standard where republicans can get away with saying their country/state is terrible and we can do better. But if a democrat does it its automatically a travesty.

Heck Trump said the people of Iowa were stupid because cruz won and they voted for him by a sizable margin in the general election.

People say Democrats get slaughtered in West Virginia because of me or "elitist liberals like me" who look down on the state. Last time I checked, Republicans bash Massachusetts, Vermont, etc. far more than Democrats bash West Virginia, but it hasn't stopped them from winning there.

Like a staple of Bush's 2004 campaign was about how horrible Massachusetts is lol. Have Democrats ever done a similar strategy with West Virginia, or ANY state for that matter?

At the federal level, they do get slaughtered because of people like you.

Tomblin wasn't a fake Democrat and was a relatively popular two term governor. And the number of Democrats in the WV legislature is comparable to the number of Republicans in the Massachussets state legislature. Hell, 21% of lower house members are Republican in MA, while 36% of lower house members are Democrats in WV.

And contrary to what you may think, Manchin will win re-election.

Tomblin and Manchin were re-elected in 2012, at the same time Obama was re-elected. Obama's re-election was the last straw for Racist WV Hicks, who will now never vote for any member of the anti-white hate group (i.e. Democratic Party) again unless they're a Republican mole like Jim Justice.

Manchin is going to get Blanched/Thompsoned/Manchined (will be a new term in a year.) His chances of winning are about as high as Ted Strickland sweeping the WV-esque parts of Ohio were.

I will concede it is possible Manchin loses, but if he does, it will be far from a blow out.

TFW when IceSpear comes back as the mirror image of JFern but about WV.