SWEDEN - September 14, 2014 - GUIDE and THREAD

[jaichind]

I guess the question for this upcoming election would have to be

a) Will Feminist Initiative manage to cross the threshold to get seats
b) If a) is in the positive then it is likely that S-MP-V alliance might not get a majority and in which case would Feminist Initiative join or support a S-MP-V government.

Has Feminist Initiative made a statement on question b) yet ?

[jaichind]

I guess the question for this upcoming election would have to be

a) Will Feminist Initiative manage to cross the threshold to get seats
b) If a) is in the positive then it is likely that S-MP-V alliance might not get a majority and in which case would Feminist Initiative join or support a S-MP-V government.

Has Feminist Initiative made a statement on question b) yet ?

B) Yes, they would. They are a clearly left-wing party and have made clear that they would never support the current government. Which of course makes them very superfluous and a big spoiler for the Red-Greens.

I see.  If so I guess the only hope that ruling alliance has of coming back would be for FI not to cross the threshold but take enough center-left votes such that the ruling alliance plus Swedish Democrats somehow exceeds  S-MP-V, then have the SD support the ruling alliance from the outside.  The problem with this setup is that SD's support base might drift away if they see SD "sellout" to the establishment and SD would be pressured to extract policy concessions from the ruling alliance which in turn would lead to the fall of the government and a landslide defeat of both the ruling alliance and SD.

[jaichind]

Aftonbladet and United Minds poll

* Swedish alliance government would get 36.8% of votes if a general election was held today vs 37% in July poll

* Three-party opposition, led by Social Democrats, supported by 46.6% in Aug. poll vs 47.4% in poll for July

* Gap between blocs narrowed to 9.8% in Aug., vs 10.4% in July and 17.7% in June

* Moderate Party of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt supported by 19.8% in Aug. vs 22.8% in July,  Liberal Party by 7.5% vs 5%, Center Party by 5.2% vs 4.8%, Christian Democrats by 4.3% vs 4.4%

* Social Democrats would get 29.6% vs 28%, Left Party supported by 7.2% vs 7.5%, Green Party by 9.8% vs 11.9%

* Sweden Democrats, with which neither bloc wants to govern because of its restrictive immigration policies, supported by 11.6% vs 10.5%; Feminist Initiative by 2.9% vs 4.0%

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Going by these results the S-MP-V might fail to get a majority on its own and not be able to count on FI.

[jaichind]

I am still confused on why SD support is not higher given the 2013 Stockholm riots.  In my view SD will most likely outperform their current polling as the riots must have had a lasting effect.

[jaichind]

Threshold is 5% I am assuming?

I think it is a threshold of 4%, but if a party reaches 12% in one election district, it will be represented even if it does not reach the 4% level nationally.  This is similar to Germany where the threshold is 5% but if a party wins 3 seats in FPTP then this 5% rule is waived.  Not 100% sure about this but this is what I recall.

[jaichind]

* Sweden’s opposition parties would get 49.6% of votes if a general election was held today vs 48.7% in poll last week, according to Sifo survey commissioned and reported by Goeteborgsposten and Svenska Dagbladet.

* Backing for four-party government was 38.5% vs 38.9%

* Moderate Party of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt backed by 24.6% vs 23.9%, Liberal Party by 6.7% vs 6.1%, Centre Party by 3.8% vs 4.6% and Christian Democrats by 3.4% vs 4.3%

* Opposition Social Democrats supported by 30.3% vs 30.7%, Green Party by 11.4% vs 11.4% and Left Party by 7.9% vs 6.6%

* Sweden Democrats, with which neither bloc wants to govern because of its restrictive views on immigration, backed by10.1% vs 9%; Feminist Initiative by 2% vs 2.6%

[jaichind]

Bad news for the Red-Greens. Todays new Novus poll supports Sifo's latest results - only a 5,0% difference between the two blocks. In other words, last week's lead has been halved.

A "hung parliament", with neither of the blocks having a majority, seems a foregone conclusion now.

Will this matter if it comes to pass ? I thought Fredrik Reinfeldt already stated that if his alliance falls short of the S-MP-V alliance then he will not make a claim to form a government, which obviously requires support from SD.

[jaichind]

Lets say that S-MP-V ends up very close to M-FP-C-KD along with a strong SD showing.  What are the chances of a grand coalition between S-MP and some combination of M-FP-C-KD to keep out V and SD? Or has S and M ruled that out already.

[jaichind]

New SIFO poll shows increasing gap though. I think the Left is getting away with this election after all.

But it seems not to make that big of a difference as the gap between M-FP-C-KD (41.3%) and S-MP-V (47.5%) is still less than SD (8.9%).  So it seems that either way you will have an minority government.

[jaichind]

What time (in Stockholm time) does the polls close? Are there websites/webcasts you guys recommend that I want look at to look at the results as they come in ?

[jaichind]

Oh and the polls will close at 8 pm Swedish time.

Great.

That means we have 2 hours to follow the German state election coverage in Brandenburg and Thüringen, where the polls close at 6pm, before switching to Sweden's election coverage ...

My thoughts exactly.

[jaichind]

This might be old but

* Social Democrat-led opposition, which also includes Green Party and Left Party, backed by 44.3% vs 46.9% in poll one week ago, according to YouGov/Metro.
* Four-party coalition government of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt supported by 39.6% vs 37.3% one week earlier; gap between two blocs narrows to 4.7 ppts vs 9.6 ppts
* Sweden Democrats backed by 11.1%
* Feminist Initiative by 4%
* YouGov polled 1,517 people on Sept. 8-10

FI getting close to the threshold

[jaichind]

This might be old but

* Social Democrat-led opposition, which also includes Green Party and Left Party, backed by 44.3% vs 46.9% in poll one week ago, according to YouGov/Metro.
* Four-party coalition government of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt supported by 39.6% vs 37.3% one week earlier; gap between two blocs narrows to 4.7 ppts vs 9.6 ppts
* Sweden Democrats backed by 11.1%
* Feminist Initiative by 4%
* YouGov polled 1,517 people on Sept. 8-10

FI getting close to the threshold

I think that one is a few days old actually, and YouGov tends to be less trustworthy from other polls in my experience.

You can also take a look at: http://bottenada.se/ which seems to be a Swedish version of Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight that has taken all recent polls into its consideration.

Well, if the poll was for 1,517 people on Sept. 8-10 then it cannot be that old.  But thanks for the site.

[jaichind]

Swedish Opposition Extends Lead in United Minds Election Poll

* Social Democrat-led opposition, which also includes Green Party and Left Party, backed by 45.5% of voters vs 44.2% in election poll published on Sept. 9, according to Aftonbladet/United Minds.

* Swedish ruling coalition would get 39.5% of votes vs 40.0%

* Gap between blocs widens to 6 ppts vs 4.2 ppts

* Moderate Party of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt backed by 22.8% vs 21.0%, Liberal Party by 5.5% vs 6.9%, Centre Party by 5.8% vs 6.5% and Christian Democrats by 5.4% vs 5.7%
Opposition Social Democrats supported by 31.1% vs 29.6%, Green Party by 8.7% vs 7.5% and Left Party by 5.7% vs 7.2%

* Sweden Democrats, with which neither bloc wants to govern because of its restrictive views on immigration, backed by 11.1% vs 11.1%; Feminist Initiative by 3.3% vs 3.4%

* United Minds polled 1,343 people Sept. 8-11 on behalf of Aftonbladet; number of undecided voters was 11.5% vs 15.0%

[jaichind]

* Sweden’s opposition parties would get 45.7% of votes if an election was held today vs 47.5% in poll
published on Sept. 10, according to Svenska Dagbladet/Sifo.

* Backing for four-party government was 40.0% vs 41.3%

* Gap between two blocs narrows to 5.7 ppts vs 6.2 ppts

* Moderate Party of Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt backed by 21.2% vs 22.6%, Liberal Party by 6.8% vs 7.2%, Center Party by 6.5% vs 7.0% and Christian Democrats by 5.5% vs 4.5%
Opposition Social Democrats supported by 31.1% vs 30.4%, Green Party by 8.3% vs 10.3% and Left Party by 6.3% vs 6.8%

* Sweden Democrats, with which neither bloc wants to govern because of its restrictive views on immigration, backed by 10.3% vs 8.9%; Feminist Initiative by 3.0% vs 1.6%

* Poll surveyed 2,445 Swedes Sept. 10-11

[jaichind]

Seems like the consensus of all the recent polls are

S+MP+V        > M+FP+C+KD
S+MP            < M+FP+C+KD
S+MP+V        < M+FP+C+KD + SD
S+MP+V+FI   > M+FP+C+KD + SD
FI                  < 4

I wonder if at the grassroots level S and MP are pushing pushing FI/S and FI/MP marginal voters to note vote FI so their vote is not wasted and risk S+MP+V failing to get a majority.  And at the same time FI are pushing the same marginal voters to vote FI to get it over 4% and ensure a center-left government.  If both are taking place then most likely they will cancel each other out and FI will fail to cross 4% by a small margin.  One way out is for S and MP to ask such votes to vote FI which from a game theory point of view makes sense on the short run but hurts S and MP on the long as they enabled a long term certer-left rival.  I wonder which way S and MP strategists will go?

[jaichind]

Yeah, my bet would be that Red-Green-Pink doesn't get a majority even with F! in parliament. Although it's obviously a close call. It's a bit ridiculous if the media puts F! in though. They're only close to getting in because people are voting for them to get a Red-Green majority. And that is only happening because the media spin has made it seem like they're getting when they really weren't close.

Yeah, I agree on that. Btw, do you think there's any chance that Reinfeldt attempts to stay on as PM, if the result is what we expect?

I thought Reinfeldt already stated that if his alliance falls behind S-MP-V then he will not try to form a minority government.

[jaichind]

Watch the Alliance finish above Red-Greens tomorrow evening

Don't think it'll happen, but it would be so damn hilarious.

Above Red-Greens or above Red-Greens-Left.  The former is very likely and even expected.  The latter is unlikely and if it did take place it would be quite disruptive relative to expectations.

[jaichind]

This seems to be some poll aggregation system. 

Swedish Govt Narrows Gap With Opposition in Poll: Ekot/Novus

*Opposition parties would get 46.1% of votes if election was held today vs 46.8% in poll published Sept. 7, according to Ekot/Novus poll of polls.

* Backing for four-party government increased to 40.2% vs 39%

* Moderate Party of PM Fredrik Reinfeldt: 22% vs 22.2%

* Liberal Party 6.8% vs 6.3%

* Center Party 6.3% vs 5.5%

* Christian Democrats 5.1% vs 5.0%

* Opposition Social Democrats supported by 30.3% vs 30%

* Green Party 9.2% vs 9.7%

* Left Party 6.6% vs 7.1%

* Sweden Democrats, with whom neither bloc wants to govern because of its restrictive views on immigration, backed by 9.6% vs 10.3%

* Feminist Initiative 3.1% vs 2.6%

* Ekot/Novus compiled results of polls by Demoskop, Novus, Sifo, Skop and Synovate from Sept. 8-13

[jaichind]

Come on, we really need those lend votes for FI!

As I mentioned earlier, S and MP would see the establishment of FI as a party that can win more than 4% of the vote as a long term threat.  At best it is another party to share the spoils of office with and at worse a FI that is part of a center-coalition could drive some S or even MP voter away and toward the center-right alliance.  The death of political parties is usually due to the rise of opponents from the opposite side of the political spectrum but like minded parties.  The Whig Party of the USA did not die as a result of the domination of the Democrats of the 1840s and 1850s but from the rise of the Republicans.  The death of the centrist New Frontier Party in Japan in the late 1990s was not due to the resurgence of the LDP but from the rise of another centrist DPJ.

[jaichind]

Would this "scandal" of SD leader Åkesson and gambling drive SD votes back to the ruling alliance?  Looks like not unless they can prove that he somehow was gambling with money that he got through illegitimate means. 

[jaichind]

Sorry for late prediction since I just got up

M: 22.6%
C:   6%
FP:  6.5%
KD: 5%

Tot:  40.1%

S:   30%
V:    6.5%
MP:  8.5%

Tot:  45%

SD: 10.6%
FI:    3.6%

[jaichind]

Early exit poll

Red-Greens: 44,9%

Alliance: 39,3%

Sweden Democrats: 10,4%

Feminist Initiative: 3,7%


If this is correct, there will not be a left-wing majority even if FI makes the treshold. SD to hold the balance of power.

They are allowed to release early exit polls before voting has ended ?