Labour Party leadership election 2015

[Phony Moderate]

...and John Mann literally brings paedogeddon into this.

Scottish Labour must be advising the main party PR machine these days.

John Mann is his own Mann.

[Phony Moderate]

Kendall, I'm almost convinced by now, is a closet hard leftie running a satirical Blairite campaign.

[Phony Moderate]

Talk now of Harman being urged to call off the election. Good Lord.

[Phony Moderate]

Btw, Rugby confirmed its reputation as an odd place the other day; the CLP nominated Corbyn for leader and Flint for deputy.

I mean, look at the electoral history: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rugby_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

[Phony Moderate]

Flint has sounded reasonable during this campaign in that she hasn't spent it insulting most of the party...

[Phony Moderate]

Quite extraordinary that Corbyn could make it while Benn and Bevan didn't.

[Phony Moderate]

Quite extraordinary that Corbyn could make it while Benn and Bevan didn't.

Not at all: Bevan never had a realistic chance as the leadership was decided by the PLP in those days (and also Gaitskell was one of the most formidable candidates in the history of the Labour Right), while Benn missed his window by losing his seat in 1983.

I meant more in the sense that those two were both household names while Corbyn was probably unknown to 90% of the population until the past few weeks.

[Phony Moderate]

Given that almost any candidate who is half a century or more old is labelled as "too old" or "past it" nowadays...

[Phony Moderate]

Given that almost any candidate who is half a century or more old is labelled as "too old" or "past it" nowadays...

Yes, why has this happened? Why has the age range for new leaders swung to the "early forties" lately? Chuka is 36!

Yeah, I mean look the 1976 Labour slate and tell me that it isn't several worlds stronger than this one.

[Phony Moderate]

The MP for Baghdad north is set to return

RIP Corbyn

Well the Katie Hopkins endorsement didn't get Cameron out did it?

Cooper, btw, has now almost caught up with Burnham for second place in CLP nominations - 107 to 110. Corbyn on 145, Kendall on 18.

[Phony Moderate]

He didn't voluntarily leave though.

[Phony Moderate]

A poll asking why Labour lost. Note which listed reason comes bottom.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/f4tu4iec6t/TimesLabourSurvey_Results_150720_W.pdf

[Phony Moderate]

A poll asking why Labour lost. Note which listed reason comes bottom.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/f4tu4iec6t/TimesLabourSurvey_Results_150720_W.pdf

It comes bottom because there's already more specific prompts for exactly that issue:

Highest responses from Conservative voters:

Ed Miliband was not good enough as a party leader - 57%
Labour failed to admit its mistakes in the run up to the banking crisis and recession - 40%
Labour did not have a plausible policy for reducing the government’s deficit - 37%
Labour was not tough enough on immigration and welfare spending - 33%

I'd like to hear how Jeremy Corbyn is the answer to these problems.

I don't think Corbyn is the solution to Labour's problems, but I don't think the others are either. I happen to think that he is what politics in general needs: someone with clear ideas and principles, not someone who is in it for a ministerial car and daily interviews. Not that you have to be on the left of the party to be principled/have clear ideas: Frank Field clearly is/does for instance. Pretty much any and all policies (even absolutely abhorrent ones which contribute to World Wars) can be electorally successful, just so long as you package them efficiently and you are in touch with the electorate in putting them out there.  

[Phony Moderate]

Burnham gets a crucial endorsement

[Phony Moderate]

Labour supporters may not see anything wrong with them, but a lot of the country does; Labour ran on a unilateralist stance in the 1950s and lost two general elections, one in a landslide.

I'm not fond of the idea of changing positions purely for electoral gain. If one sincerely believes in UND then one should attempt to convince others (be they in the party or in the country) of its merits; same goes for those who are anti-UND.

[Phony Moderate]

The electorate isn't necessarily always right, though. Most here will favour gay marriage. California of course voted to ban gay marriage just seven years ago; views have dramatically changed since then, partly due to generational shifts but also due to effective arguments and persuasion by the pro-gay marriage side.

[Phony Moderate]

Let's hope the tories don't see this

I always thought he just wanted to talk to Hamas, but calling them a force for 'social justice' takes it a bit too far in my view

Though he actually tells a half-joke at one point in the video; one of the criticisms so far has been that he is humourless.

[Phony Moderate]

Remember, Big Jim had a 50-31 lead over Thatcher as preferred PM on the day before the 1979 election.

[Phony Moderate]

He only seriously connected with Middle England (or any other part of the country) in 1997; the 2001 and 2005 elections were won with less votes than in both 1992 and 1979.

[Phony Moderate]

And in 1974

Remember, Big Jim had a 50-31 lead over Thatcher as preferred PM on the day before the 1979 election.

Absolutely and it was a lead he thoroughly deserved imo.

Jim Callaghan, John Major and Gordon Brown all lost power for the same reason... there was a major event which undermined their credibility in the eyes of the public.

With Callaghan it was the Winter Of Discontent, with Major it was Black Wednesday and with Brown it was the Global Financial Crisis.

The resulting 1979, 1997 and 2010 general elections are also the last three times there has been a change of party in power.

Worryingly for Labour this seems to imply that there needs to be another major economic or industrial event before the current Conservative government are turfed out of office.

And in 1974 it was the strikes and the oil crisis, in 1970 it was devaluation and its effects, in 1964 it was Profumo, in 1945 it was the War. 1951 is about the only occasion since the War in which a major event didn't obviously cause or strongly contribute to the government losing office.

[Phony Moderate]

Though ironically Brown's reaction to the crash itself was widely praised and seen as the high point of his premiership. The aftermath of the crash however...

[Phony Moderate]

Burnham has come out in favour of rail re-nationalization.

[Phony Moderate]

Tbh Blair's biggest mistake (well there's a lot of them) was not trying to push harder to nationalize it. Talking to my tory relatives they seem to think it's mad that Major sold it off-heck didn't Thatcher call it the poll tax on wheels?

Blair didn't because he knew he would have lost the backing of the Murdoch press.

[Phony Moderate]

Surely far more people could walk to work twenty years ago.

[Phony Moderate]

He only seriously connected with Middle England (or any other part of the country) in 1997; the 2001 and 2005 elections were won with less votes than in both 1992 and 1979.

2001 was largely due to falling turnout (from 71% down to 59%).

Which is largely my point. The country was quietly satisifed with him but it wasn't enthusiastic.