I don't believe I'm trying to spin anything? All I said was (in reference to a previous post) that Republicans have won nearly all the previous special elections since Trump took office and that the Virginia governorship is not a gain for the Democrats.
All true, of course, and relevant if the most interesting question coming out of this year's elections is "who has more power in America today" — but I don't think it is. Most non-delusional observers were aware from the start that very few of these contests were likely to result in seats changing hands; it shouldn't surprise anyone that Republicans are winning in Kansas and Utah. With the notable exceptions of GA-6 and tonight's elections in Virginia, there's nothing particularly earthshaking or unexpected in the
outcomes of these contests — in almost every case, the party that everyone expected to win won — and if you view politics as a kind of spectator sport, that's all that matters. But if you're going to use these elections as a measure of shifts in public opinion (which I would argue is both more interesting and more useful), then what matters is not the outcomes but the margins — and there the Democrats, who have consistently improved upon their most recent performances in the relevant constituencies, in some instances (as tonight in VA) markedly, are the clear winners. In the same sense that the UK elections were widely received as an embarrassment for Theresa May, despite her party coming in first, these results do not bode well for the GOP, who are currently bleeding significantly at the polls. Time will tell just how significant their losses are, and whether they will translate to actual gains for the Democrats in 2018.
