2013 Elections in Germany

[Franknburger]

I'm late to this, but I just looked back over this thread and I'm surprised at the high level of support for gay equality among Linke voters. I thought a lot of their support was from rather socially conservative folks, but I guess not.

The existence of gay civil unions - called marriages in the vernacular and registered in just the same way as marriages (except that churchbound people have a second, church, wedding afterwards*) -  has become part of the furniture quite fast, and most unpolitical people are actually vaguely surprised to hear they're not equal in the benefits they bestow. In short, equality is the conservative option, resisting the inevitable is the reactionary option.
There's a lot of people, and possibly more among Left voters than anywhere else, who would admit to personal anti-gay prejudice while supporting equality.

*and remember, they're few and far between in the East

In addition, you first have to remember that in the case of the infratest dimap poll we are talking about a rather small sample size (7% Linke voters among 1345 respondents ~ 90-95 persons), which implies a quite large margin of error.
Secondly, it has become obvious that the issue will primarily hurt the CDU / CSU: While SPD, Grüne, FDP and Linke all have full marriage equality in their party programmes, the CDU/CSU is so far opposing it. As such, a Linke voter supporting marriage equality is not only doing so in line with his/her party's  official opinion, but may also be quite happy to see the CDU/CSU getting into problems, and one of the rifts within the black-yellow coalition becoming exposed.

[Franzl]

GMS, 19.03.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 16%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 3%
FW: 1%

Red-Green with no majority (42-52).
Black-yellow with no majority (45-49).

[Tender Branson]

Forsa:

40% CDU/CSU
24% SPD
15% Greens
  7% Left
  6% FDP
  3% Pirates
  5% Others

...

46% Black/Yellow
46% Red/Green/Dark-Red

The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire ...

[ERvND]

46% Black/Yellow
46% Red/Green/Dark-Red

The roof, the roof, the roof is on fire ...

I've said it in 2009, and I say it now: Black-yellow will be reelected.

The following backlash, however, is also already in the books. Black-yellow had no real common "project" from the beginning (it became apparent in the coalition agreement talks), and they have no "project" now. They have no majority in the Bundesrat. Moreover, government fatigue will set in after so many years with Merkel. If everything plays out as expected, the SPD's Kraft can already hope for a good opportunity in 2017.

[Franzl]

FGW/ZDF, 22.03.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 29%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%

Red-Green with no majority (43-47).
CDU with no majority (40-50).

[Franknburger]

As usual, here some more background data from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (for ZDF), 22.03.13:

Party lean - the pure, unedited raw polling stuff (Changes againt Mar 8, 2013)

CDU       42 (-4)
SPD       31 (+5)
Grüne    13 (-!)
Linke       6  ()
FDP         2 (-1)

others (including Pirates)   6 (+1)

Non-voters           12% (+1)
Unsure if voting    14% (+1)

The SPD's "clown dip" has ebbed away, results return to normal levels. Decrease for Grüne is slightly surprising, however, we may have the "Easter holidays" effect here (students, teachers, families with children - all potential green demographics - travelling to sunnier places).


Prefered Coalition:
SPD/Grüne                        24 (+2)
CDU / SPD                         23  (-1)
CDU/FPD                           13  ()
None of the above            40 (-1)

This time they have done a more specific analysis, asking for the opinion on various coalitions (good / bad):
CDU / SPD                        52 / 29
SPD/ Grüne                       42 / 35
CDU / Grüne                     34 / 38
CDU/ FPD                         26 / 48
SPD / Grüne / Linke          19 / 63
SPD / Grüne / FDP            13 / 60

At least 40% of CDU supporters don't like black-yellow anymore! Little support for SPD / Grüne / Linke. It will most likely be another Grand Coalition, unless the CDU breaks in completely.

Prefered Chancelor:
Merkel                             60 (-2)
Steinbrück                       29 (+2)

Personal Ratings:
Merkel                             1.9 (-0.2)
Steinbrück                       0.1 (+0.1)

[Franknburger]

And another poll, but same trend (CDU down, SPD up, Greens slightly down):

[Middle-aged Europe]

Have visited my old hometown of Halle over the Easter weekend. Apparently, the first black politician** with good chances of entering the German Bundestag is running there in the September election... Senegal-born Karamba Diaby from the SPD. And in an East German district of all places.

Have we finally found our own Obama?


(** strictly speaking, Josef Winkler from the Greens surely "looks" black too.. but he's half-Indian and not African)

[Tender Branson]

What were the direct vote and party list results in 2009 for that district ?

[Middle-aged Europe]

What were the direct vote and party list results in 2009 for that district ?

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundestagswahlkreis_Halle

Was won by the Left in 2009.

From 1994 to 2009 it was held by the SPD, but Christel Riemann-Hanewinckel retired then and in 2009 the new SPD candidate only managed to come in third behind Left and CDU. And in 1990, the FDP candidate had won the district (the last time something like that happened in Germany). So pretty much all over the place, but more or less a "Left/SPD swing district", I suppose.

[minionofmidas]

Have visited my old hometown of Halle over the Easter weekend. Apparently, the first black politician** with good chances of entering the German Bundestag is running there in the September election... Senegal-born Karamba Diaby from the SPD. And in an East German district of all places.

Have we finally found our own Obama?


(** strictly speaking, Josef Winkler from the Greens surely "looks" black too.. but he's half-Indian and not African)

Really? Looks full Indian to me.



And a bow tie wearer. He probably loves Sim City, too.

[minionofmidas]

It says on Diaby's website that he has been living in Halle since 1986. I didn't know the GDR had Senegalese immigrants. Mozambiquan, yes.

[palandio]

Directly after 1990 the FDP was very strong in Halle, because it is Genscher's home town.

It would say that this year the CDU might stand a good chance:
Petra Sitte (LINKE) will start from her 33.7% in 2009, get some incumbent bonus (say 3-6%), lose some points (4-10%) because the LINKE is not in a very good shape at the moment, so altogether 27%-35%

The CDU will start from 30.9% in 2009 and will likely get back some FDP voters, so altogether say
30%-36%.

The SPD will start from 16.3%. In 2005 their proportional vote performance was 33.6%, but probably this time they will get way below 30%. Additionally they don't have the incumbent bonus anymore.

So it's LINKE against CDU, with CDU slightly favored.

[Tender Branson]

So, the African guy has only a small chance to win this seat, considering past results.

Is the Linke incumbent running again ?

If yes, maybe he wins again. Otherwise CDU pickup.

[ERvND]

It would say that this year the CDU might stand a good chance:
Petra Sitte (LINKE) will start from her 33.7% in 2009, get some incumbent bonus (say 3-6%), lose some points (4-10%) because the LINKE is not in a very good shape at the moment, so altogether 27%-35%

The CDU will start from 30.9% in 2009 and will likely get back some FDP voters, so altogether say
30%-36%.

The SPD will start from 16.3%. In 2005 their proportional vote performance was 33.6%, but probably this time they will get way below 30%. Additionally they don't have the incumbent bonus anymore.

So it's LINKE against CDU, with CDU slightly favored.

Actually, this math applies to many seats in the east.

I think it's possible that outside of their stronghold Brandenburg, the SPD will win no single seat in former GDR territory.

Edit: I just realized this was already the case in 2009. Well, it won't change this year.

[hawkeye59]

Why would there not be a coalition of left-wing parties (i.e. SPD-Grüne-Linke) ?

[You kip if you want to...]

Why would there not be a coalition of left-wing parties (i.e. SPD-Grüne-Linke) ?

The Linke is the continuing Communist Party of the GDR (from what I gather) and nobody outside of the leftist strongholds in the East wants to be at all associated with the Linke - poor connotations, etc.

Die Linke would probably call the SPD (and certainly the Greens) too bourgeois for their liking anyway.

[Zanas]

Actually, it's kind of more the other way around : SPD has moved so much to the right that they are way more comfortable working with CDU than with die Linke. But yes there are also frequentability issues for die Linke acused by history.

But it's SPD, not Linke, that refuses a Rot-Rot coalition more.

[Velasco]

Why would there not be a coalition of left-wing parties (i.e. SPD-Grüne-Linke) ?

The Linke is the continuing Communist Party of the GDR (from what I gather) and nobody outside of the leftist strongholds in the East wants to be at all associated with the Linke - poor connotations, etc.

Die Linke would probably call the SPD (and certainly the Greens) too bourgeois for their liking anyway.

I think that collaborating with Die Linke wasn't anathema for Klaus Wowereit in Berlin. I think that some day there will be a normalization of the relations with this party, unless there are going to be always CDU-SPD coalitions, in which case it's unknown if elections in Germany will make sense as a competence between CDU and SPD anymore.

[Rob Bloom]

Apart from historical reasons and different programmes there is also a personal matter that caused the mistrust between SPD and Linke: Oskar Lafontaine, who had left his offices as finance minister and leader of the SPD in 1999 very suddenly after quarrels with Chancellor Schröder, later became the most popular politician of Linke in western Germany. He is still powerful and likes to dis his old party whenever possible. It seems that both parties can't trust each other completely as long as he is around.

[Middle-aged Europe]

On the federal level, you're also involved with foreign, defense, and European policy. Something were SPD/Greens and Left often disagree the most (mostly, Afghanistan and EU/Euro). Hence SPD/Left on the state level, but not on the federal level.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, the African guy has only a small chance to win this seat, considering past results.

Is the Linke incumbent running again ?

If yes, maybe he wins again. Otherwise CDU pickup.

He could still be elected through the list... and most likely will.

[Franknburger]

I think it's possible that outside of their stronghold Brandenburg, the SPD will win no single seat in former GDR territory.

Edit: I just realized this was already the case in 2009. Well, it won't change this year.

The SPD might still have a shot at Leipzig II, where Wolfgang Tiefensee is running again. But that's probably it.

[Franzl]

Emnid, 07.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 8%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 3%
others: 4%

Black-yellow with no majority (44-49).
Red-green with no chance in hell at a majority (41-52).

[Zanas]

Eww, that's Groß...