I wouldn't be surprised if Romney won IA. Polling in IA in 2008 wasn't very good, final RCP avg was way off.
And it was biased toward Obama substantially, nearly as much as CO and NV polling was biased against him.
Looking closer it appears it was those last 3 polls in 2008. Obama had a 10-11 pt lead for Sept-Oct up until Halloween, but then Des Moines Register, SUSA and Research 2000 jumped in with huge Obama leads pushing him to an avg of +15.3. The last poll before those 3 (Marist Obama+10) actually got it right.
