Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal (user search)
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Author Topic: Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal  (Read 130397 times)
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #50 on: October 29, 2018, 12:46:28 AM »
Also: Clark (71%) and Washoe (20%) are currently 91% of the early vote. The other way to think of this is that the rurals are 9%. In context, they made up 12% of total votes cast in 2016 and 15% in the total early vote 2010. Haven't as of yet looked at this more closely, but if I am Dean Heller I would not be a fan.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #51 on: October 29, 2018, 08:16:22 PM »
Yeah, probably more of a function of the Culinary Workers taking off on Thursday and Friday to work the GOTV operation than anything else.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #52 on: October 29, 2018, 08:58:30 PM »
Dems up to a nearly 28k lead statewide in Iowa, big leads in IA-01 and IA-03. Source: Bleeding Heartland.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #53 on: October 29, 2018, 09:05:51 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 29, 2018, 09:04:46 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on October 29, 2018, 08:58:30 PM
Dems up to a nearly 28k lead statewide in Iowa, big leads in IA-01 and IA-03. Source: Bleeding Heartland.



Do we know how this compares to 2014? I know the dates are different because there were 10 less days.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #54 on: October 29, 2018, 09:50:02 PM »


Continuing weak numbers from the GOP in Washoe. They should be running up the margin today and tomorrow.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #55 on: October 29, 2018, 09:52:52 PM »
There were barely any absentees counted in Washoe over the weekend so thinking that it is just a ballot backlog being counted today.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #56 on: October 29, 2018, 10:34:54 PM »
Turnout appears to be down or flat in the couple rurals that have reported in Nevada thus far.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #57 on: October 30, 2018, 12:06:29 AM »
There apparently is going to be a delay on Clark County tonight.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #58 on: October 30, 2018, 12:16:33 AM »


Bg day for the Dems.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #59 on: October 30, 2018, 01:39:47 AM »
Quote from: Lincoln Senator Lok on October 30, 2018, 01:23:44 AM
Lol, if today was the GOP's good day, and they couldn't eat into the Dems advantage, they're in deep trouble later on in the week...
GOP definitely did not get the numbers they needed today. Looking increasingly likely that we will have a fairly confident idea of who is going to win by Friday.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #60 on: October 30, 2018, 03:22:01 PM »
Trump had everything go right for him on election day in Nevada and still didn't win. That tells you a lot.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #61 on: October 30, 2018, 09:24:00 PM »
The early voting period has been like watching Dean Heller's demise in slow motion.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #62 on: October 30, 2018, 10:19:00 PM »
Does not look like Heller is getting a rural surge today from the few reporting so far.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #63 on: October 30, 2018, 11:00:55 PM »
So, I decided to look at the our current numbers (as of yesterday) and compare them against 2010, when Harry Reid won an upset reelection in a GOP wave year. This is partial turnout as of yesterday vs. total turnout in 2010:
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #64 on: October 31, 2018, 12:20:18 AM »


My God... they're voting... all of them.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #65 on: October 31, 2018, 02:32:24 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 31, 2018, 01:58:07 PM
Huge day yesterday in Arizona for Democrats, Republican advantage dropped almost a full point:




Not that it is the best comparison, but does anyone remember what the final EV margin for the GOP was in 2016?
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #66 on: October 31, 2018, 03:02:45 PM »
Republicans have fallen more than .2, they lost 5 points from people with mixed histories but voted GOP most recently.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #67 on: October 31, 2018, 11:32:20 PM »
The Washoe file is up, just without a summary. I guess Ralston will eventually do the analysis himself.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #68 on: October 31, 2018, 11:37:03 PM »


Big turnout in Georgia.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #69 on: October 31, 2018, 11:46:21 PM »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on October 31, 2018, 11:33:13 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on October 31, 2018, 11:32:20 PM
The Washoe file is up, just without a summary. I guess Ralston will eventually do the analysis himself.

No it isn't. The file they put up says "10_30_18", so they must have accidentally uploaded the October 30 file again.

You are right, best to wait until they post their official summary.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #70 on: October 31, 2018, 11:57:47 PM »


Still a solid performance for relatively low turnout on Halloween.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #71 on: November 01, 2018, 03:35:17 PM »
Well, it shows close wins assuming that independents break narrowly or evenly. If independents break towards the Democrats decisively, it will develop into a wider victory.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #72 on: November 01, 2018, 05:22:14 PM »
In which election did Democrats end up at a 4-5 point deficit? 2016?
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #73 on: November 01, 2018, 08:18:50 PM »
Also, in 2016 at least, the real surge in voters came in the last 2 hours of voting after people got off work. Something to look out for tonight. though of course it isn't certain to happen.
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Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


« Reply #74 on: November 02, 2018, 12:03:51 AM »
Still waiting on Clark and Washoe numbers.
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