primary poll scatter plots for each candidate

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

As this latest plot shows, the candidate with the most negative momentum in the national GOP polls right now is Fred Thompson.  Given the current trends, might McCain actually retake second place in the national polls before the end of the year?

This trend would put Huckabee right below Giuliani.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

You mean if all the trendlines were to continue in exactly the same direction they are now through January?  Well yeah, but I don't know that they're all going to keep going exactly as they are now for that long.  Not sure that Huckabee can keep gaining at his present rate for that long.  But McCain and Thompson are close enough that I was thinking their trendlines might cross again before the year is out.

I think McCain's done - like Hillary will be.  Thompson's fad - when he dies down, he's done.  Giuliani will fall, just like McCain.  Huckabee will gain some, and level out.  Romney will win.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I agree that Romney is the most likely to win (though I think it's close between him and Giuliani).  But there's no way that Romney is going to take the lead in the national polls until after he wins Iowa and/or New Hampshire.  I'm not thinking that far out in the future.  Just saying that, in the short term, I think Thompson might very well drop below McCain in the national polls.  Of course this is a state-by-state by contest, so the national polls ultimately don't mean anything about who's going to win the nomination.  It was just an observation.

Oh, I agree, but neither did Kerry.