Path of Least Resistance to a Democratic House

[The_Doctor]

Why AR 02? I understand UT 04, although I want to see if she becomes enough of a settled incumbent to win. At 37-38 seats, that would be enough for the Democrats to take 225 seats, and that list is pretty good otherwise.

[The_Doctor]

Makes sense to me IceSpear.

Should Maine 02 be lower on the list? After all, Polinquin and his conservative challenger took 58% of the vote, with turnout at 86%. I find Maine 02 interesting given turnout and demographics.

I'd rank IL 10 much higher, it seems to fluctuate based on the year. Given 2016, Dold could lose again. It's outside Chicago in the ring counties, which trend liberal.

I'd be interested in the geographic concentration and demographic concentration of this list. As you said the Democratic decimation in Appalachia has made going back to a majority much harder.

NV 04 (Las Vegas-ish) makes sense.

FWIW, question. Should it be 31 seats assuming NE 01 goes back to the Republicans in 2016?

Overall, this is a good list.