Michael Moore predicts Trump will win

[Sir Mohamed]

The first thing I read this morning was this.

Any thoughts? I think completely unrealistic, especially the path to 270 Moore is predicting. If (very very big if) the Trumpster somehow manages to win, then it's with 2012 states plus FL, plus OH plus PA. No way he's flipping MI and WI.

[StatesPoll]

The first thing I read this morning was this.

Any thoughts? I think completely unrealistic, especially the path to 270 Moore is predicting. If (very very big if) the Trumpster somehow manages to win, then it's with 2012 states plus FL, plus OH plus PA. No way he's flipping MI and WI.

No way he's flipping MI and WI?

Even Liberal Nate Silver's Analysis,
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus
TRUMP's chance of winning
Michigan: 22.6% Wisconsin: 25.5%

[emailking]

I think that Moore is predicting there will be a gradual shift towards Trump such that he might be the favorite by the time the election comes. So he might not be thinking in terms of a detailed state by state analysis. I've heard him say before that he thought Trump could win, but this is the first time I've seen him say he will probably win. I don't think it will happen personally. But if there's enough of a sea change, multiple "no way" states could flip.

[Sir Mohamed]

The first thing I read this morning was this.

Any thoughts? I think completely unrealistic, especially the path to 270 Moore is predicting. If (very very big if) the Trumpster somehow manages to win, then it's with 2012 states plus FL, plus OH plus PA. No way he's flipping MI and WI.

No way he's flipping MI and WI?

Even Liberal Nate Silver's Analysis,
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus
TRUMP's chance of winning
Michigan: 22.6% Wisconsin: 25.5%

Silver's numbers change on a daily basis and I doubt they're very accurate. For example, Johnson won't get 8% of the vote. If the Trumpster wins this election, he will do it by flipping FL, OH and PA (a combined 273 electoral votes, assuming he retains all Romney states; which is likely in such a scenario. The next state he would flip is IA). However, I still believe that he'll lose 191-347 (2012 map plus NC for Hillary).

[user12345]

He also told us to get ready to start saying "President Romney" 2012 so who cares what he has to say.

[Nyvin]

Flipping Wisconsin is laughable,  flipping Michigan is extremely unlikely.    

Michael Moore is kind of a doom-sayer, he throws this stuff out there to get people all jittered up and panicy.     He is from the Rustbelt, and focuses a lot of his work there, so it's natural he wants to point out flaws in the Democratic Party's platform in regards to how it affects states in his area (Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).  

If Trump wins it's going to be by throwing Hail Marys in Florida and Pennsylvania, and winning Ohio.