India 2014 - Results (user search)
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Author Topic: India 2014 - Results  (Read 22076 times)
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« on: May 15, 2014, 08:05:24 PM »
I have been at conference all week.  I will post final predictions tomorrow morning.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2014, 09:06:06 PM »
Opps.  Just realized the count it today and not tomorrow.  I guess I have to post my prediction now before the count starts.  I will have to be NDA 242 UPA 130.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2014, 09:08:10 PM »
Last known INC internal survey is UPA 170 NDA 190
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2014, 09:18:18 PM »
The last known bookie odds are NDA to capture 361 which is way above exit polls.

So we have it.  Exit polls have NDA at 270-290, INC predicts NDA at 190, bookies predict NDA at 361 and I am at 241.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #4 on: May 15, 2014, 09:30:22 PM »
TRS comes out for UPA and rules out supporting NDA.  They totally got it wrong in 2009 when they switched sides at the last minute from Third Front to NDA.  I figure they are for UPA because they do not have the numbers to form a government in the Telangana assembly and figure that an alliance with INC is the only way to get there.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2014, 09:31:15 PM »
Counting begins.  We have EVM so it should be fast. Hopefully.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #6 on: May 15, 2014, 09:36:46 PM »
First lead comes in. It is one BJP seat in Karnataka which it already held. 
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #7 on: May 15, 2014, 09:39:45 PM »
http://www.ndtv.com/ is a good place to look. NDTV tends to have the fastest counts.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2014, 09:41:46 PM »
NDA 5 UPA 1 Others 3
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2014, 09:43:00 PM »
NDA 7 UPA 2 Others 3
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #10 on: May 15, 2014, 09:44:49 PM »
NDA 7 UPA 7 Others 4
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #11 on: May 15, 2014, 09:47:21 PM »
NDA 17 UPA 9 Others 8
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #12 on: May 15, 2014, 09:49:03 PM »
These are just leads but could change.  But once the count is over 100 seats it could only get better for the leading alliance.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #13 on: May 15, 2014, 09:49:27 PM »
NDA 21 UPA 11 Others 9
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #14 on: May 15, 2014, 09:51:00 PM »
NDA 31 UPA 13 Others 11
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #15 on: May 15, 2014, 09:52:06 PM »
NDA 33 UPA 14 Others 12
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #16 on: May 15, 2014, 09:54:33 PM »
Karnataka neck to neck.  If that is the case I think it would be a bare majority for NDA.  
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #17 on: May 15, 2014, 09:55:08 PM »
NDA 42 UPA 21 Others 16
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #18 on: May 15, 2014, 09:56:46 PM »
Rajasthan is a very elastic state.  I would focus on UP, Bihar, Karnataka.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #19 on: May 15, 2014, 09:59:43 PM »
NDA 52 UPA 24 Others 24
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #20 on: May 15, 2014, 10:03:48 PM »
NDA 63 UPA 36 Others 29
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #21 on: May 15, 2014, 10:07:35 PM »
NDA 75 UPA 43 Others 36
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #22 on: May 15, 2014, 10:09:14 PM »
NDA is up 24 so far out of 159 seats.  Extrapolating this means NDA is en route to gain 82 seats which would put NDA at around 240.  I suspect it will be higher.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #23 on: May 15, 2014, 10:15:06 PM »
NDA run rate relative to gains projects 260 for NDA.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,684
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39
« Reply #24 on: May 15, 2014, 10:18:34 PM »
NDTV projects NDA at 285 at current rates.
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