Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[LAKISYLVANIA]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

yes, but if we treat the exit poll as perfectly accurate, then VVD-D66 might have the opportunity to look for other coalitions members. Senate math and the D66 could prefer different partners.

D66 and CU don't get along as well on some policies. The fact they don't need CU now, changes things a lot. CU is probably done as well.

So likely

VVD + D66 + CDA
But perhaps, they might look for something else like
VVD + D66 + GL + Volt
VVD + D66 + PvdA + Volt

If i was D66 and I had 27 seats, and i would be in such a position, i would sell my skin dearly

[Diouf]

Does CDA just wander into another coalition with Rutte and the centre-left? If they lose as much as five seats and end down on 14

[Zinneke]

Wait, is Otten backing JA21? He's in the background during Eerdmans interview. Why has Otten still got his own group in the Senate?

[SunSt0rm]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Yes, the latter part is especially true, because I know who someone who did... But i said to him it didn't make sense, because they will be in the government anyway, and if you doubt between left-wing parties and D66 because tactically voting for D66 is supposedly better because you would push the government to the left, but this bad result for the left-wing parties, means D66 has basically no reason to even consider what the left really wants, as they're absolutely decimated. I really don't get that strategy.

ALso, according to polling, some VVD'ers also went to D66 because they thought VVD is going to win anyway, and they wanted a stronger voice for D66 in that government or more emphasis on left-wing policies. (center-left or social liberal policies, not really left-wing).

Yea, D66 has the sweet spot where it can attract center right and center left voters. I think they get the best possibly position by persuading moderate VVD voters that a vote for D66 can push the VVD for more Green policy while center left voters were appealed to vote for the strongest Progressive vote. Very intersting!

[SunSt0rm]

Wait, is Otten backing JA21? He's in the background during Eerdmans interview. Why has Otten still got his own group in the Senate?

No thats EU JA21 faction leader Derk Jan Eppink

[Former President tack50]

RIP Dutch left

Extremely surprised at the D66 surge. Per Laki's coalitions tbh I think VVD+D66+Volt+GL would be interesting, but I guess realistically it is going to be VVD+D66+cDA

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/CasMudde/status/1372277905233952774

Wait, is Otten backing JA21? He's in the background during Eerdmans interview. Why has Otten still got his own group in the Senate?

No thats EU JA21 faction leader Derk Jan Eppink

Oh yeah I thought he looked familiar!

[jeron]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

I heard some friends arguing for strong D66 so they could push for Purple Plus cabinet (VVD/D66/PvdA/GL) or could subpass CDA and take the influential Finance Minister position fron Hoekstra

Yes, Hoekstra is done. Koolmees will be finance minister

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Does CDA just wander into another coalition with Rutte and the centre-left? If they lose as much as five seats and end down on 14

I hope CDA skips this government. Than it's likelier to see PvdA/GL (one of the two) + Volt invited, or PvdA/GL. Although GL could skip as well after those results.

[Double Carpet]

Gut feel, I think D66 overestimated and PVV underestimated in exit poll.

[SunSt0rm]

What's the reason of this dramatic surge of D66?

Kaag very strong media performance and debates and probably last minute tactical voting from the left to vote against VVD (which is somwhat laughable)

Isn't that a bit useless? I mean, VVD and D66 are likely to renew the current government coalition, right?

I heard some friends arguing for strong D66 so they could push for Purple Plus cabinet (VVD/D66/PvdA/GL) or could subpass CDA and take the influential Finance Minister position fron Hoekstra

Yes, Hoekstra is done. Koolmees will be finance minister

I am very curious how many personal votes Omtzigt will get, I wont be completely shocked if Omtzigt will get more votes than Hoekstra

[America Needs R'hllor]

What just happened? Did the D66 do anything noteable to deserve this or did the Dutch take a massive libpill before the election?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

RIP Dutch left

Extremely surprised at the D66 surge. Per Laki's coalitions tbh I think VVD+D66+Volt+GL would be interesting, but I guess realistically it is going to be VVD+D66+cDA

Mwha does CDA really want into the government.

VVD + D66 + Volt + GL would be the most liberal government to have ever existed on this planet, because all those parties are liberal (unless a liberal party once had a majority, but some parties are actually on the extreme end of liberalism, so i guess it could be the most liberal government to have ever existed in this world).

[jeron]

Does CDA just wander into another coalition with Rutte and the centre-left? If they lose as much as five seats and end down on 14

I hope CDA skips this government. Than it's likelier to see PvdA/GL (one of the two) + Volt invited, or PvdA/GL. Although GL could skip as well after those results.

CDA loves being in power. There is now way they are going to say no

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Gut feel, I think D66 overestimated and PVV underestimated in exit poll.

D66 had momentum and a surge, so i'd think it's quite accurate, although it might be off by two seats.

PVV likely is around what expected, i don't think they are underestimated here, given FvD and JA21 also have a combined 10 seats, and there was little reason to vote far-right this election.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Does CDA just wander into another coalition with Rutte and the centre-left? If they lose as much as five seats and end down on 14

I hope CDA skips this government. Than it's likelier to see PvdA/GL (one of the two) + Volt invited, or PvdA/GL. Although GL could skip as well after those results.

CDA loves being in power. There is now way they are going to say no

I think D66 should sell their skin dearly, and make clear they don't want to go into a government with CDA.

[omar04]

So, a few questions.

What were Dutch voting priorities in this election?

How bad was the benefits scandal fallout for Rutte?

What are the major shifts other than the further decline of the left?

[Mike88]

There will an update on the exit poll in 9 minutes, or so, right?

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/SimonOtjes/status/1372282958283964416

R E A L I G N M E N T

[Mike88]

VVD up one in the updated exit poll. D66 stays the same.

[Zinneke]

Dutch/pol/ is taking it well...

[Diouf]

VVD up one in the updated exit poll. D66 stays the same.

And FvD one op, Volt down one.

FvD now equal to SP and GroenLinks, and one seat behind PvdA.

[Oryxslayer]

Nothing really changes for the larger parties in the exits from the initial release. VVD gained a seat, PvdD lost one projected seat, FvD gained one, and Volt down one projected.

[Mike88]

Party vote share %: (from the 9pm exit poll)

https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1372285377776648192

[SunSt0rm]

Dutch/pol/ is taking it well...

probably meaning, r/thenetherlands. Yea they are not taking it well.

First results coming from the islands. One going to D66 and one to VVD