Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1576292659731521536?s=20&t=pcK7L7EL...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

China basically has said that if Russia uses a nuke then they're done with Russia too and will stop buying from them, as has India...so yeah if that happens Russia's economy is absolutely done.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

China basically has said that if Russia uses a nuke then they're done with Russia too and will stop buying from them, as has India...so yeah if that happens Russia's economy is absolutely done.

The Chinese strategy through this is blindingly obvious. They are consolidating their Anti-Imperialist Empire in preparation for Cold War 2.0

[Hindsight was 2020]

With Lyman down it’s sounding like Borova and Kreminna are the next to fall

[Badger]

It's hard for me to be excited about this. Every acre Ukraine takes back makes it more likely Vlad will go nuclear.

Ukrainian tanks could be rolling into Moscow and you would argue this lol.

Well, then it would actually make sense.

[Badger]

Putin in his speech asked the Russian people if they want to live in a country where mother and father become parent 1 and parent 2.  This mimics some of the themes of Giorgia Meloni in some of her speeches.  It is clear Putin is also trying to appeal to the populist Conservative Right in the EU.

And still, the "populist Conservative Right in the EU" was never as anti-Putin and pro-NATO as today...

It's a stupid rhetorical platitude. I don't think that there is anything more behind it.

All the more reason for him to get them back. Even if not raising cultural issues that can serve to increase political divisions within EU countries can only be good for Putin.

Guys, he's clearly playing to his own crowd in the Archbishop Karill supporters.

[Hollywood]

It's hard for me to be excited about this. Every acre Ukraine takes back makes it more likely Vlad will go nuclear.

Ukrainian tanks could be rolling into Moscow and you would argue this lol.

Well, then it would actually make sense.

No.  If anything, the Ukrainians will be rolling in on NATO Tanks.  

[KaiserDave]

Does anyone find it interesting that Putin's screed on the 30th made no strong mention of the traditional appeals to the Russian nation in times of war? While he called on the Russian people to patriotically unite behind the war effort, it was on the heels of a bizarre rant on history I can't imagine people outside of Russophile telegram chats and message boards care about (and despite it all, internet ultranationalists do not represent the Russian majority). Including indecipherable ravings on an Anglo-Saxon satanic conspiracy to implement "perversions" and such nonsense.

I find it hard to see the retreating, starving, front soldiers in Donbass feeling any attachment to this, much apathetic new conscripts or ethnic minorities. Now many of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine are enthusiastic bandits and murders, but this is not always true (especially with a wave of new conscripts). I refuse to believe that this kind of pseudo-historical lecture is an effective rallying call.

Stalin's speech at the Red Army Parade in Moscow in 1941 was a monumental moment in the Soviet War effort. Now obviously in 1941 the military situation for the Russian state was very different that it is now, Zelenskyy is not knocking on the door of Moscow, but it is important to examine, Russia is losing now and it was losing then. Stalin did not pursue into a bizarre, barely coherent rant on Germany's history or make deranged ideological proclamations (although obviously, Western Liberalism is not evil, and Nazism is). Stalin's is quite a good speech (and he was not someone who liked speechmaking), I think it's a good comparison. Stalin, despite the desperate situation for the Red Army actually makes you believe that it is in fact the Germans who are on the brink of total collapse and makes a real appeal to the Soviet layperson. Putin cannot manage even this, nor does he even try to tell the Russian people that the military situation will improve, he continues in fact to deny that Russia is even at war while delving into the details of an incoherent narrative. Hollow words for the average front soldier. Hollower still with the reality that Russia is actively losing territory they are claiming as sovereign territory.

I have listened to Putin often. I think this is very important (those of his American apologists who are merely ignorant should do well to do as I do). I listened to his speech on February the 24th in his weird small office, and now on September 20th. While his content has always been totally toxic, there has been a change. It seems Putin has gone over, or at least conceding to the "Z-Patriots" camp, those who have always taken the ultranationalist, escalatory, line such as Alexandr Dugin and Igor Girkin in both action and content. He has annexed "Novorossiya" he has effectively ordered a general mobilization. I think in February and in some of the following months, his speeches were certainly more outwardly stable than they are now. And they at least nominally acknowledged the existence of a "Ukrainian people."  So with with the backdrop of these nonsensical proclamations and mobilization, it certainly seems he has grown increasingly deranged. It's become clear that Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous man on Earth.

And one last note, it is just rich to see Macron going on the airwaves to try and desperately rationalize Putin's actions somehow. I don't know why people are so desperate to find a reasonable explanation for his actions besides the fact that he and his associates are totally deranged and out of touch. I further don't understand why people (the same who said Putin would never invade, or did it because of "NATO expansion) are desperate to give Putin an off ramp or a way to "save face." Why are you obsessed with finding a reasonable explanation for Putin's actions! He has made very obvious to everyone who takes the time to listen that his motivations are insane. Absurd.

[KaiserDave]

"We now have allies, who together with us are maintaining a united front against the German invaders. We now enjoy the sympathy and support of all the nations of Europe who have fallen under the yoke of Hitler’s tyranny. We now have a splendid Army and a splendid Navy, who are defending with their lives the liberty and independence of our country. We experience no serious shortage of either food, or armaments or army clothing. Our entire country, all the peoples of our country, support our Army and our Navy, helping them to smash the invading hordes of German fascists. Our reserves of man-power are inexhaustible."


"Hunger and impoverishment reign in Germany to-day; in four months of war Germany has lost four and a half million men; Germany is bleeding, her reserves of man-power are giving out, the spirit of indignation is spreading not only among the peoples of Europe who have fallen under the yoke of the German invaders but also among the German people themselves, who see no end to war. The German invaders are straining their last efforts. There is no doubt that Germany cannot sustain such a strain for long. Another few months, another half-year, perhaps another year, and Hitlerite Germany must burst under the pressure of her crimes."


If anything, I'd say Zelenskyy has captured the spirit of Stalin in '41? Who does this sound like? Of course you can say Hitler's Germany and Putin's Russia are both aggressors, but I find them still to be so much more similar. If I may...

"Hunger and impoverishment reign in Russia to-day; in eight months of war Russia has lost 75,000 men; Russia is bleeding, her reserves of man-power are giving out, the spirit of indignation is spreading not only among the peoples of Russia who have fallen under the yoke of the Moscow imperialists but also among the Russian people themselves, who see no end to war. The Russian invaders are straining their last efforts. There is no doubt that Russia cannot sustain such a strain for long. Another few months, another half-year, perhaps another year, and Putin's Russia must burst under the pressure of her crimes."

Obligatory note that Stalin was one of history's greatest monsters but that should be obvious.

[Hollywood]

Does anyone find it interesting that Putin's screed on the 30th made no strong mention of the traditional appeals to the Russian nation in times of war? While he called on the Russian people to patriotically unite behind the war effort, it was on the heels of a bizarre rant on history I can't imagine people outside of Russophile telegram chats and message boards care about (and despite it all, internet ultranationalists do not represent the Russian majority). Including indecipherable ravings on an Anglo-Saxon satanic conspiracy to implement "perversions" and such nonsense.

I find it hard to see the retreating, starving, front soldiers in Donbass feeling any attachment to this, much apathetic new conscripts or ethnic minorities. Now many of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine are enthusiastic bandits and murders, but this is not always true (especially with a wave of new conscripts). I refuse to believe that this kind of pseudo-historical lecture is an effective rallying call.

Stalin's speech at the Red Army Parade in Moscow in 1941 was a monumental moment in the Soviet War effort. Now obviously in 1941 the military situation for the Russian state was very different that it is now, Zelenskyy is not knocking on the door of Moscow, but it is important to examine, Russia is losing now and it was losing then. Stalin did not pursue into a bizarre, barely coherent rant on Germany's history or make deranged ideological proclamations (although obviously, Western Liberalism is not evil, and Nazism is). Stalin's is quite a good speech (and he was not someone who liked speechmaking), I think it's a good comparison. Stalin, despite the desperate situation for the Red Army actually makes you believe that it is in fact the Germans who are on the brink of total collapse and makes a real appeal to the Soviet layperson. Putin cannot manage even this, nor does he even try to tell the Russian people that the military situation will improve, he continues in fact to deny that Russia is even at war while delving into the details of an incoherent narrative. Hollow words for the average front soldier. Hollower still with the reality that Russia is actively losing territory they are claiming as sovereign territory.

I have listened to Putin often. I think this is very important (those of his American apologists who are merely ignorant should do well to do as I do). I listened to his speech on February the 24th in his weird small office, and now on September 20th. While his content has always been totally toxic, there has been a change. It seems Putin has gone over, or at least conceding to the "Z-Patriots" camp, those who have always taken the ultranationalist, escalatory, line such as Alexandr Dugin and Igor Girkin in both action and content. He has annexed "Novorossiya" he has effectively ordered a general mobilization. I think in February and in some of the following months, his speeches were certainly more outwardly stable than they are now, and with the backdrop of these nonsensical proclamations and mobilization, it certainly seems so. Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous man on Earth.

And one last note, it is just rich to see Macron going on the airwaves to try and desperately rationalize Putin's actions somehow. I don't know why people are so desperate to find a reasonable explanation for his actions besides the fact that he and his associates are totally deranged and out of touch. I further don't understand why people (the same who said Putin would never invade, or did it because of "NATO expansion) are desperate to give Putin an off ramp or a way to "save face." Absurd.

Let me just start out by re-stating that the invasion of Ukraine is morally wrong. 

However, I knew Putin would invade 4 years ago given reports about a build-up of weapons and combat units following the 2014 coup and the increasingly strained relations with the US military establishment.  I thought China would first invade Taiwan, but the Ukrainian conflict was a likely, if not inevitable, consequence of the anti-Russian Democrat Party taking control of both the executive and legislative branch.  The report by the Rand Corporation in 2019 provides details to the US Military and Congress regarding the various ways the United States can stress the Russian economic and political system, and the describes each step as 'escalatory'.  There's a whole section about exploiting Russian anxieties and vulnerabilities, as well as examples of actions the United States has pursued.  Another aspect of US foreign policy was to undermine Russian relations with ethnic minorities that formed countries from the former soviet union, as well as force Russia to extend resources into other countries.  For example, the US armed the Syrian Rebels (ISIS) in order to overthrow Russian Ally Bashar Al Assad.  file:///Users/newguest/Downloads/RAND_RR3063.pdf 

The number one priority in the world is to prevent a war between the United States and Russian.  There is nothing more important.  If you want to know why people are turning against the war, then look know no further than news reports about the US and UK demanding Zelensky refuse peace deals and tentative agreements with Russia, particularly ones that would have left Ukraine in a better position.  Yet, this isn't the only problem.  Pretty much everyone believes the US or another NATO Ally blew up the Nordstream Pipeline.  It's a pretty obvious when you factor in the constant bombardment of the Zaporzhzhia Power Plant by Ukraine, and the accusations by the US and Ukraine that Russia was committing the attacks to frame Ukraine.  At what point am I allowed to put my foot down?  Where's the line?   

It seems the number one goal of our leaders is to preserve and increase gains by NATO even when Russia clearly has an economic advantage that could critically damage the economic well-being of individuals in the US and Europe.  Our leaders have clearly expressed that all must suffer as long as Ukraine is occupied.  Okay.  But everyone has just come out of Covid Fascism, so just make a deal with Russia to pause the conflict for a couple years.  Time is a resources that the US needs, and Russia has it. Yet, the Perfect Idiots believe that Ukraine will roll into Moscow with tanks, because everyone knows that all invasions of Russia result in easy victories with limited casualties!?!?!?  The Perfects Idiots still think Saddam Hussein had WMDS, or will object to the comparison with Ukraine.  Why?  Perfect Idiots. 

BTW... I'm not calling the Ukrainian People Idiots, because I recognize your right to self-defense.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Does anyone find it interesting that Putin's screed on the 30th made no strong mention of the traditional appeals to the Russian nation in times of war? While he called on the Russian people to patriotically unite behind the war effort, it was on the heels of a bizarre rant on history I can't imagine people outside of Russophile telegram chats and message boards care about (and despite it all, internet ultranationalists do not represent the Russian majority). Including indecipherable ravings on an Anglo-Saxon satanic conspiracy to implement "perversions" and such nonsense.

I find it hard to see the retreating, starving, front soldiers in Donbass feeling any attachment to this, much apathetic new conscripts or ethnic minorities. Now many of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine are enthusiastic bandits and murders, but this is not always true (especially with a wave of new conscripts). I refuse to believe that this kind of pseudo-historical lecture is an effective rallying call.

Stalin's speech at the Red Army Parade in Moscow in 1941 was a monumental moment in the Soviet War effort. Now obviously in 1941 the military situation for the Russian state was very different that it is now, Zelenskyy is not knocking on the door of Moscow, but it is important to examine, Russia is losing now and it was losing then. Stalin did not pursue into a bizarre, barely coherent rant on Germany's history or make deranged ideological proclamations (although obviously, Western Liberalism is not evil, and Nazism is). Stalin's is quite a good speech (and he was not someone who liked speechmaking), I think it's a good comparison. Stalin, despite the desperate situation for the Red Army actually makes you believe that it is in fact the Germans who are on the brink of total collapse and makes a real appeal to the Soviet layperson. Putin cannot manage even this, nor does he even try to tell the Russian people that the military situation will improve, he continues in fact to deny that Russia is even at war while delving into the details of an incoherent narrative. Hollow words for the average front soldier. Hollower still with the reality that Russia is actively losing territory they are claiming as sovereign territory.

I have listened to Putin often. I think this is very important (those of his American apologists who are merely ignorant should do well to do as I do). I listened to his speech on February the 24th in his weird small office, and now on September 20th. While his content has always been totally toxic, there has been a change. It seems Putin has gone over, or at least conceding to the "Z-Patriots" camp, those who have always taken the ultranationalist, escalatory, line such as Alexandr Dugin and Igor Girkin in both action and content. He has annexed "Novorossiya" he has effectively ordered a general mobilization. I think in February and in some of the following months, his speeches were certainly more outwardly stable than they are now, and with the backdrop of these nonsensical proclamations and mobilization, it certainly seems so. Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous man on Earth.

And one last note, it is just rich to see Macron going on the airwaves to try and desperately rationalize Putin's actions somehow. I don't know why people are so desperate to find a reasonable explanation for his actions besides the fact that he and his associates are totally deranged and out of touch. I further don't understand why people (the same who said Putin would never invade, or did it because of "NATO expansion) are desperate to give Putin an off ramp or a way to "save face." Absurd.

Let me just start out by re-stating that the invasion of Ukraine is morally wrong. 

However,

No.

[CumbrianLefty]

I have listened to Putin often. I think this is very important (those of his American apologists who are merely ignorant should do well to do as I do). I listened to his speech on February the 24th in his weird small office, and now on September 20th. While his content has always been totally toxic, there has been a change. It seems Putin has gone over, or at least conceding to the "Z-Patriots" camp, those who have always taken the ultranationalist, escalatory, line such as Alexandr Dugin and Igor Girkin in both action and content. He has annexed "Novorossiya" he has effectively ordered a general mobilization. I think in February and in some of the following months, his speeches were certainly more outwardly stable than they are now. And they at least nominally acknowledged the existence of a "Ukrainian people."  So with with the backdrop of these nonsensical proclamations and mobilization, it certainly seems he has grown increasingly deranged. It's become clear that Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous man on Earth.

Its worth asking, what proportion of Russians are actually hard core Duginists?

Despite all the propaganda, its got to be a definite minority - and maybe quite a small one.

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1575422599764463616

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a Russian perspective on mobilization.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Does anyone find it interesting that Putin's screed on the 30th made no strong mention of the traditional appeals to the Russian nation in times of war? While he called on the Russian people to patriotically unite behind the war effort, it was on the heels of a bizarre rant on history I can't imagine people outside of Russophile telegram chats and message boards care about (and despite it all, internet ultranationalists do not represent the Russian majority). Including indecipherable ravings on an Anglo-Saxon satanic conspiracy to implement "perversions" and such nonsense.

I find it hard to see the retreating, starving, front soldiers in Donbass feeling any attachment to this, much apathetic new conscripts or ethnic minorities. Now many of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine are enthusiastic bandits and murders, but this is not always true (especially with a wave of new conscripts). I refuse to believe that this kind of pseudo-historical lecture is an effective rallying call.

Stalin's speech at the Red Army Parade in Moscow in 1941 was a monumental moment in the Soviet War effort. Now obviously in 1941 the military situation for the Russian state was very different that it is now, Zelenskyy is not knocking on the door of Moscow, but it is important to examine, Russia is losing now and it was losing then. Stalin did not pursue into a bizarre, barely coherent rant on Germany's history or make deranged ideological proclamations (although obviously, Western Liberalism is not evil, and Nazism is). Stalin's is quite a good speech (and he was not someone who liked speechmaking), I think it's a good comparison. Stalin, despite the desperate situation for the Red Army actually makes you believe that it is in fact the Germans who are on the brink of total collapse and makes a real appeal to the Soviet layperson. Putin cannot manage even this, nor does he even try to tell the Russian people that the military situation will improve, he continues in fact to deny that Russia is even at war while delving into the details of an incoherent narrative. Hollow words for the average front soldier. Hollower still with the reality that Russia is actively losing territory they are claiming as sovereign territory.

I have listened to Putin often. I think this is very important (those of his American apologists who are merely ignorant should do well to do as I do). I listened to his speech on February the 24th in his weird small office, and now on September 20th. While his content has always been totally toxic, there has been a change. It seems Putin has gone over, or at least conceding to the "Z-Patriots" camp, those who have always taken the ultranationalist, escalatory, line such as Alexandr Dugin and Igor Girkin in both action and content. He has annexed "Novorossiya" he has effectively ordered a general mobilization. I think in February and in some of the following months, his speeches were certainly more outwardly stable than they are now. And they at least nominally acknowledged the existence of a "Ukrainian people."  So with with the backdrop of these nonsensical proclamations and mobilization, it certainly seems he has grown increasingly deranged. It's become clear that Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous man on Earth.

And one last note, it is just rich to see Macron going on the airwaves to try and desperately rationalize Putin's actions somehow. I don't know why people are so desperate to find a reasonable explanation for his actions besides the fact that he and his associates are totally deranged and out of touch. I further don't understand why people (the same who said Putin would never invade, or did it because of "NATO expansion) are desperate to give Putin an off ramp or a way to "save face." Why are you obsessed with finding a reasonable explanation for Putin's actions! He has made very obvious to everyone who takes the time to listen that his motivations are insane. Absurd.

Vladimir Putin has always been a bit of an emotionless robot (this should have been a warning sign as early as 2000), now it turns out he's the dispassionate, emotionless, Russian-speaking version of Donald Trump.

Considering that his speeches seem to be based on anti-Western, anti-liberal rants he found on Twitter, the question is justified whether he just spent too much time on the Internet during COVID lockdowns.

[CumbrianLefty]

Back in 2000, an "emotionless robot" was widely seen as a refreshing change from an erratic drunk - both in Russia and further afield. Apart from poisoning his mind with both Duginist screeds and online crankery during the pandemic, he is a prime exhibit of the dangers of staying in power too long.

[Person Man]

Back in 2000, an "emotionless robot" was widely seen as a refreshing change from an erratic drunk - both in Russia and further afield. Apart from poisoning his mind with both Duginist screeds and online crankery during the pandemic, he is a prime exhibit of the dangers of staying in power too long.

So Vladimir Putin is basically the ultimate role model on 4chan.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/manta_greg/status/1576550817360121857

[Hollywood]

Does anyone find it interesting that Putin's screed on the 30th made no strong mention of the traditional appeals to the Russian nation in times of war? While he called on the Russian people to patriotically unite behind the war effort, it was on the heels of a bizarre rant on history I can't imagine people outside of Russophile telegram chats and message boards care about (and despite it all, internet ultranationalists do not represent the Russian majority). Including indecipherable ravings on an Anglo-Saxon satanic conspiracy to implement "perversions" and such nonsense.

I find it hard to see the retreating, starving, front soldiers in Donbass feeling any attachment to this, much apathetic new conscripts or ethnic minorities. Now many of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine are enthusiastic bandits and murders, but this is not always true (especially with a wave of new conscripts). I refuse to believe that this kind of pseudo-historical lecture is an effective rallying call.

Stalin's speech at the Red Army Parade in Moscow in 1941 was a monumental moment in the Soviet War effort. Now obviously in 1941 the military situation for the Russian state was very different that it is now, Zelenskyy is not knocking on the door of Moscow, but it is important to examine, Russia is losing now and it was losing then. Stalin did not pursue into a bizarre, barely coherent rant on Germany's history or make deranged ideological proclamations (although obviously, Western Liberalism is not evil, and Nazism is). Stalin's is quite a good speech (and he was not someone who liked speechmaking), I think it's a good comparison. Stalin, despite the desperate situation for the Red Army actually makes you believe that it is in fact the Germans who are on the brink of total collapse and makes a real appeal to the Soviet layperson. Putin cannot manage even this, nor does he even try to tell the Russian people that the military situation will improve, he continues in fact to deny that Russia is even at war while delving into the details of an incoherent narrative. Hollow words for the average front soldier. Hollower still with the reality that Russia is actively losing territory they are claiming as sovereign territory.

I have listened to Putin often. I think this is very important (those of his American apologists who are merely ignorant should do well to do as I do). I listened to his speech on February the 24th in his weird small office, and now on September 20th. While his content has always been totally toxic, there has been a change. It seems Putin has gone over, or at least conceding to the "Z-Patriots" camp, those who have always taken the ultranationalist, escalatory, line such as Alexandr Dugin and Igor Girkin in both action and content. He has annexed "Novorossiya" he has effectively ordered a general mobilization. I think in February and in some of the following months, his speeches were certainly more outwardly stable than they are now. And they at least nominally acknowledged the existence of a "Ukrainian people."  So with with the backdrop of these nonsensical proclamations and mobilization, it certainly seems he has grown increasingly deranged. It's become clear that Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous man on Earth.

And one last note, it is just rich to see Macron going on the airwaves to try and desperately rationalize Putin's actions somehow. I don't know why people are so desperate to find a reasonable explanation for his actions besides the fact that he and his associates are totally deranged and out of touch. I further don't understand why people (the same who said Putin would never invade, or did it because of "NATO expansion) are desperate to give Putin an off ramp or a way to "save face." Why are you obsessed with finding a reasonable explanation for Putin's actions! He has made very obvious to everyone who takes the time to listen that his motivations are insane. Absurd.

Vladimir Putin has always been a bit of an emotionless robot (this should have been a warning sign as early as 2000), now it turns out he's the dispassionate, emotionless, Russian-speaking version of Donald Trump.

Considering that his speeches seem to be based on anti-Western, anti-liberal rants he found on Twitter, the question is justified whether he just spent too much time on the Internet during COVID lockdowns.

WTF?  Isn't this just the perspective of the average Russian.  These people hate globalists, western powers, and establishment neocons of both the left and right-wing.  They don't see any differently than George Bush, but they likely abhor the divisive woke policies and the transgender to pedophilia attitudes espoused by the left-wing.  I find this attitude among a majority of english-speaking foreigners like Chinese, Indian, Brazilian, Middle Eastern, etc.  You can't write a report detailing all the ways you're going to conspire with other nations to F with Russia, and then expect Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, India, etc.to trust a word coming out of your mouth.  
file:///Users/newguest/Downloads/RAND_RR3063%20(1).pdf

[jaichind]

If Russia was behind the NS sabotage it would seem to me that there will be non-stop coverage of it on collective West media.  Somehow this story has gone quiet after a week.

[Hollywood]

If Russia was behind the NS sabotage it would seem to me that there will be non-stop coverage of it on collective West media.  Somehow this story has gone quiet after a week.

Yeah.  They are going with a leak, because nobody believe Russia would go all the way to Denmark just to secretly undermine their own economic and diplomatic position with Germany and France just to blame it on a NATO country.  There is benefit other than the off-chance that the Western Media helps them disseminate an accurate version of the story as opposed to the West's Propaganda. 

The CIA really F-ed up when they trusted German Officials not to leak information about a pending terrorist attack to one the most Famous German Investigative Journals, because it completely contradicted their message pretending as if they were puzzled that the pipeline was leaking. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

If Russia was behind the NS sabotage it would seem to me that there will be non-stop coverage of it on collective West media.  Somehow this story has gone quiet after a week.

I don't follow why this should be so.... because all "Western media" are under direct control of CIA headquarters in Langley? If there are no new reports it can simply be a case of "there's nothing new to report at the moment". Maybe wait until varous governments' investigations bring some new facts to light?

Provided that would even be the case in the first place. It wasn't really my impression, at least in German media, that the story has "gone quiet".

[Middle-aged Europe]

Does anyone find it interesting that Putin's screed on the 30th made no strong mention of the traditional appeals to the Russian nation in times of war? While he called on the Russian people to patriotically unite behind the war effort, it was on the heels of a bizarre rant on history I can't imagine people outside of Russophile telegram chats and message boards care about (and despite it all, internet ultranationalists do not represent the Russian majority). Including indecipherable ravings on an Anglo-Saxon satanic conspiracy to implement "perversions" and such nonsense.

I find it hard to see the retreating, starving, front soldiers in Donbass feeling any attachment to this, much apathetic new conscripts or ethnic minorities. Now many of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine are enthusiastic bandits and murders, but this is not always true (especially with a wave of new conscripts). I refuse to believe that this kind of pseudo-historical lecture is an effective rallying call.

Stalin's speech at the Red Army Parade in Moscow in 1941 was a monumental moment in the Soviet War effort. Now obviously in 1941 the military situation for the Russian state was very different that it is now, Zelenskyy is not knocking on the door of Moscow, but it is important to examine, Russia is losing now and it was losing then. Stalin did not pursue into a bizarre, barely coherent rant on Germany's history or make deranged ideological proclamations (although obviously, Western Liberalism is not evil, and Nazism is). Stalin's is quite a good speech (and he was not someone who liked speechmaking), I think it's a good comparison. Stalin, despite the desperate situation for the Red Army actually makes you believe that it is in fact the Germans who are on the brink of total collapse and makes a real appeal to the Soviet layperson. Putin cannot manage even this, nor does he even try to tell the Russian people that the military situation will improve, he continues in fact to deny that Russia is even at war while delving into the details of an incoherent narrative. Hollow words for the average front soldier. Hollower still with the reality that Russia is actively losing territory they are claiming as sovereign territory.

I have listened to Putin often. I think this is very important (those of his American apologists who are merely ignorant should do well to do as I do). I listened to his speech on February the 24th in his weird small office, and now on September 20th. While his content has always been totally toxic, there has been a change. It seems Putin has gone over, or at least conceding to the "Z-Patriots" camp, those who have always taken the ultranationalist, escalatory, line such as Alexandr Dugin and Igor Girkin in both action and content. He has annexed "Novorossiya" he has effectively ordered a general mobilization. I think in February and in some of the following months, his speeches were certainly more outwardly stable than they are now. And they at least nominally acknowledged the existence of a "Ukrainian people."  So with with the backdrop of these nonsensical proclamations and mobilization, it certainly seems he has grown increasingly deranged. It's become clear that Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous man on Earth.

And one last note, it is just rich to see Macron going on the airwaves to try and desperately rationalize Putin's actions somehow. I don't know why people are so desperate to find a reasonable explanation for his actions besides the fact that he and his associates are totally deranged and out of touch. I further don't understand why people (the same who said Putin would never invade, or did it because of "NATO expansion) are desperate to give Putin an off ramp or a way to "save face." Why are you obsessed with finding a reasonable explanation for Putin's actions! He has made very obvious to everyone who takes the time to listen that his motivations are insane. Absurd.

Vladimir Putin has always been a bit of an emotionless robot (this should have been a warning sign as early as 2000), now it turns out he's the dispassionate, emotionless, Russian-speaking version of Donald Trump.

Considering that his speeches seem to be based on anti-Western, anti-liberal rants he found on Twitter, the question is justified whether he just spent too much time on the Internet during COVID lockdowns.

WTF?  Isn't this just the perspective of the average Russian.  These people hate globalists, western powers, and establishment neocons of both the left and right-wing.  They don't see any differently than George Bush, but they likely abhor the divisive woke policies and the transgender to pedophilia attitudes espoused by the left-wing.  I find this attitude among a majority of english-speaking foreigners like Chinese, Indian, Brazilian, Middle Eastern, etc.  You can't write a report detailing all the ways you're going to conspire with other nations to F with Russia, and then expect Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, India, etc.to trust a word coming out of your mouth.  
file:///Users/newguest/Downloads/RAND_RR3063%20(1).pdf

I don't even understand what you are trying to say here.

Communicate clearer, please.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Does anyone find it interesting that Putin's screed on the 30th made no strong mention of the traditional appeals to the Russian nation in times of war? While he called on the Russian people to patriotically unite behind the war effort, it was on the heels of a bizarre rant on history I can't imagine people outside of Russophile telegram chats and message boards care about (and despite it all, internet ultranationalists do not represent the Russian majority). Including indecipherable ravings on an Anglo-Saxon satanic conspiracy to implement "perversions" and such nonsense.

I find it hard to see the retreating, starving, front soldiers in Donbass feeling any attachment to this, much apathetic new conscripts or ethnic minorities. Now many of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine are enthusiastic bandits and murders, but this is not always true (especially with a wave of new conscripts). I refuse to believe that this kind of pseudo-historical lecture is an effective rallying call.

Stalin's speech at the Red Army Parade in Moscow in 1941 was a monumental moment in the Soviet War effort. Now obviously in 1941 the military situation for the Russian state was very different that it is now, Zelenskyy is not knocking on the door of Moscow, but it is important to examine, Russia is losing now and it was losing then. Stalin did not pursue into a bizarre, barely coherent rant on Germany's history or make deranged ideological proclamations (although obviously, Western Liberalism is not evil, and Nazism is). Stalin's is quite a good speech (and he was not someone who liked speechmaking), I think it's a good comparison. Stalin, despite the desperate situation for the Red Army actually makes you believe that it is in fact the Germans who are on the brink of total collapse and makes a real appeal to the Soviet layperson. Putin cannot manage even this, nor does he even try to tell the Russian people that the military situation will improve, he continues in fact to deny that Russia is even at war while delving into the details of an incoherent narrative. Hollow words for the average front soldier. Hollower still with the reality that Russia is actively losing territory they are claiming as sovereign territory.

I have listened to Putin often. I think this is very important (those of his American apologists who are merely ignorant should do well to do as I do). I listened to his speech on February the 24th in his weird small office, and now on September 20th. While his content has always been totally toxic, there has been a change. It seems Putin has gone over, or at least conceding to the "Z-Patriots" camp, those who have always taken the ultranationalist, escalatory, line such as Alexandr Dugin and Igor Girkin in both action and content. He has annexed "Novorossiya" he has effectively ordered a general mobilization. I think in February and in some of the following months, his speeches were certainly more outwardly stable than they are now. And they at least nominally acknowledged the existence of a "Ukrainian people."  So with with the backdrop of these nonsensical proclamations and mobilization, it certainly seems he has grown increasingly deranged. It's become clear that Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous man on Earth.

And one last note, it is just rich to see Macron going on the airwaves to try and desperately rationalize Putin's actions somehow. I don't know why people are so desperate to find a reasonable explanation for his actions besides the fact that he and his associates are totally deranged and out of touch. I further don't understand why people (the same who said Putin would never invade, or did it because of "NATO expansion) are desperate to give Putin an off ramp or a way to "save face." Why are you obsessed with finding a reasonable explanation for Putin's actions! He has made very obvious to everyone who takes the time to listen that his motivations are insane. Absurd.

Vladimir Putin has always been a bit of an emotionless robot (this should have been a warning sign as early as 2000), now it turns out he's the dispassionate, emotionless, Russian-speaking version of Donald Trump.

Considering that his speeches seem to be based on anti-Western, anti-liberal rants he found on Twitter, the question is justified whether he just spent too much time on the Internet during COVID lockdowns.

WTF?  Isn't this just the perspective of the average Russian.  These people hate globalists, western powers, and establishment neocons of both the left and right-wing.  They don't see any differently than George Bush, but they likely abhor the divisive woke policies and the transgender to pedophilia attitudes espoused by the left-wing.  I find this attitude among a majority of english-speaking foreigners like Chinese, Indian, Brazilian, Middle Eastern, etc.  You can't write a report detailing all the ways you're going to conspire with other nations to F with Russia, and then expect Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, India, etc.to trust a word coming out of your mouth. 
file:///Users/newguest/Downloads/RAND_RR3063%20(1).pdf

I don't even understand what you are trying to say here.

Communicate clearer, please.

He's saying that people in non-Western parts of the world tend to find what they see as the Western liberal mindset unappealingly censorious and totalizing. Which is true, but there's that and then there's THIS.

[Torie]

Come let us reason together. Let us start with the KD:

“I further don't understand why people (the same who said Putin would never invade, or did it because of "NATO expansion) are desperate to give Putin an off ramp or a way to "save face." Why are you obsessed with finding a reasonable explanation for Putin's actions! He has made very obvious to everyone who takes the time to listen that his motivations are insane. Absurd.”

Inasmuch as Tucker Carlson is not a poster here, I am not sure anyone, even the handful of what some might uncharitably describe as Putin’s useful idiots, have made much of an effort to describe Putin’s actions as “reasonable.” However, there is certainly a case to be made for giving Putin face saving off ramps, because to the extent that the only forks in the road are reduced to Putin achieving his objectives or being in effect executed, that makes matters much more dangerous.  One can muse about the design of such off ramps (none of them can entail of course in effect rewarding Putin for his crimes), but at the moment it is somewhat of a moot point because Putin’s job one seemingly is to destroy any off ramps that may be offered up out there on the far horizon. But more reverses on the battle field, and more domestic unrest, might cause a course correction. Sure, the most dangerous Manichean twin forks intersection may be inevitable, but the last thing left in Pandora’s Box is hope. One must try.

So now let us turn to our most interesting poster Hollywood, who is growing on me. He has something to contribute.  We should be polite to him, even if we disagree with 95% or more of his opinions.

“… the Ukrainian conflict was a likely, if not inevitable, consequence of the anti-Russian Democrat Party taking control of both the executive and legislative branch. …  There's a whole section about exploiting Russian anxieties and vulnerabilities, as well as examples of actions the United States has pursued.  Another aspect of US foreign policy was to undermine Russian relations with ethnic minorities that formed countries from the former soviet union, as well as force Russia to extend resources into other countries.  For example, the US armed the Syrian Rebels (ISIS) in order to overthrow Russian Ally Bashar Al Assad.  file:///Users/newguest/Downloads/RAND_RR3063.pdf’.”

The Rand report seems quite interesting, and it is certainly fair to describe the Dem party as more anti-Russian than Trump and the bulk of his MAGA fans (cf Tucker Carlson). That is a very low bar indeed. So let us savor that point of agreement, as it will be our last one.

However, when Putin snatched Crimea, and then some of the Donbas, and became ever more autocratic, and clearly viewed Ukraine as a state that should not exist, we had a problem that was hardly due to provocative actions of the Dem party. A citation is needed for how the US went about the business of undermining “Russian relations with ethnic minorities" on Russia’s periphery, and if so, why, but if your exhibit A for that, is US support for the Syrian rebels, that is inapposite. First, those rebels that the US supported were not ISIS, and its policy concern was about Assad’s campaign of genocide of all those who opposed him. It was a humanitarian endeavor, and had nothing to do per se with undermining Russia. Obviously Russia became a problem when Putin bonded with Assad, as a guy he could relate to. You would need to adduce evidence that at its core, the anti Assad Syrian policy was all about undermining Putin. In the meantime, that seems like a wild shot to me.

The next paragraph kind of goes over a cliff and into the pit of despair for me. Absent abject appeasement, it takes two to tango to avoid war, unfortunately, and bending over to Putin and handing over to him Ukraine, or most of it, because he sabre rattles, is just not an option. Sure, preventing total war is still job one, but then the way out of the box, if Putin’s sanguinary impulses to literally commit cultural genocide and/or diaspora cannot be contained, is to kill him. Of course, one needs to endeavor to the extent one can  to avoid that most dangerous fork intersection of a big war or assassination, which gets back to those off ramps alluded to above.

Citations are further needed as to the unsubstantiated assertion that  the US/UK is pressuring Zelensky to refuse deals with Russia (that sounds just so Putinesque really). That would not be in the US/UK's interest at all (you see, absent Putin's demise, the end game, no point hiding the ball here, is to hand over to Putin a bit of real estate in the end, with Ukraine then joining NATO and NATO troops going in, to bring the play to an end at last). Zelensky hardly seems to need any motivational lectures to just say no in any event. I really do wonder where on earth that came from. Citations are further needed for the assertion of fact that near “everyone” believes team NATO blew up the pipeline. My impression is quite the opposite, actually.  Ditto the shelling of the nuke plant by Ukraine. At this point your prose seems to be a most excellent parody of Putin’s propaganda machine. It is so good in fact, that you might be able to score an appearance on the Tucker Carlson show. Good luck.

The last paragraph becomes farce as it posits Russia has the economic advantage (who knew but you?), that we all think leashing Putin is easy lifting, and then the feast of excessive hyperbole. No need for you to respond to any of that. Let's just agree to disagree on such idle speculations.  But before bidding you adieu, why the covid fascism bit? I find it just so weird that the nationalistic, tribalistic, often jingoistic Right, also tends to be anti-mask, anti-vax, and anti LQBTQ, and pro the traditional gender roles and the attendant oppression of a half century or more ago, as if tied to the hip like Siamese twins. What’s up with that? I don’t get the connections myself. It is as if, if you love playing tennis, you also hate dogs. Wat?

Ukraine and its allies are going to persevere on this one, and whatever happens, it will not be something involving a pause, so that Putin can go about setting the stage for securing his next bite. This is Putin’s last picture show. You can write that down.