US House Redistricting: Maryland

[minionofmidas]

Yes it is. Intra-state water connections so count. (it's closer to being continuous than Velazquez' or Nadler's or Bobby Scott's district.)

[Sbane]

I love how you pretend as if the 4th or the 7th aren't gerrymandered.

A fair map would probably result in a 5-2-1 map.

[krazen1211]

If you're going to go 7-1:

I always thought the nicer looking map packed in MD-1 by adding Harford and North Baltimore Counties while running MD-6 deep into Montco and making that your new district.


Turning MD-1 into a Dem district is never clean and I think putting Prince George's in with the Eastern Shore is pretty damn incoherent. Montco and the Western Panhandle are at least on the same side of the state.

[Dgov]

I love how you pretend as if the 4th or the 7th aren't gerrymandered.

A fair map would probably result in a 5-2-1 map.

Actually it would probably be 4-2-2.  The Democrats would have 2 uber-safe Seats in baltimore and PGC, 2 safe seats in Montgomery and Howard County +Rest of Montgomery/PGC.  The Republicans would have 2 Safe Seats in the Eastern Shore and the Western panhandle.

There would probably be two swing seats: 1 around the Baltimore Suburbs (Republican or Democratic leaning depending on where the baltimore proper districts grabs its extra 100,000 people) and one like the current 5th but with the PGC county part cut out in favor of Central/Northern Anne Arundel county.

Its important to remember that the Democrat's strength in Maryland comes mostly from running up huge margins in Baltimore and PGC rather than a geographically wide base of support--its possible to draw a map with 5 not-really-ugly McCain districts if you pack the Democrats well enough.  A "Fair" map will be more beneficial to the Republicans than the Statewide numbers suggest.

[timothyinMD]

Okay, I did some un-gerrymandering, and actually came up with a rather easy 4R/4D map. 

Maryland may just be the most polarized state.  Take out Baltimore city and Pr. George's County and Ehrlich won the election by 16,000 votes.

In my 4-4 map we have:
Red      57-41 McCain
Purple  50-48 McCain
Green  55-42 McCain
Blue     53-45 McCain
 
Teal       71-27 Obama   13% black, 16% hisp, 15% asian
Gray      72-26 Obama   31.6% black, 11.5% hisp, 11.3% asian
Yellow    90-9 Obama    66.6% black
Orange  90-9 Obama    66.6% black

I didn't even try to make Yellow and Orange exact twins, but dumb luck

[krazen1211]

Pretty cool map here: MD with 3 black and 4 total Minority districts.

http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/365/mmd-md-by-shamlet

[minionofmidas]

I love how you pretend as if the 4th or the 7th aren't gerrymandered.

A fair map would probably result in a 5-2-1 map.

Actually it would probably be 4-2-2.  The Democrats would have 2 uber-safe Seats in baltimore and PGC, 2 safe seats in Montgomery and Howard County +Rest of Montgomery/PGC.  The Republicans would have 2 Safe Seats in the Eastern Shore and the Western panhandle.

There would probably be two swing seats: 1 around the Baltimore Suburbs (Republican or Democratic leaning depending on where the baltimore proper districts grabs its extra 100,000 people) and one like the current 5th but with the PGC county part cut out in favor of Central/Northern Anne Arundel county.

Quite, though it makes for a much prettier map if you throw in South Maryland with the Eastern Shore and make the remaining seat firmly Anne-Arundel-based. Though I'd consider it 4-1-3 bordering on 4-2-2... actually 4-4 if a lead is a lead, though.



1 (Eastern Shore - South Maryland) 76% White, 17% Black, 54-44 McCain. Hoyer
2 (North of Baltimore) 72% White, 17% Black, 49-49 McCain. Harris, Ruppersberger, Sarbanes
3 (Baltimore and Black suburbs to the west) 67% Black, 24% White, 88-11 Obama. Cummings
4 (Anne Arundel with southern Baltimore County) 73% White, 15% Black, 50-48 McCain. open
5 (Prince George's) 71% Black, 14% White, 89-10 Obama. Edwards
6 (parts of PG's, Montgomery and Howard) 36% White, 28% Black, 22% Hispanic, 10% Asian, 76-23 Obama. Van Hollen
7 (West Montgomery - Ellicott City) 59% White, 16% Asian, 12% Hispanic, 11% Black, 65-34 Obama. open
8 (North and Northwest) 85% White, 58-40 McCain. Bartlett

I drew the 6th and 7th with the intention of making the 6th a "coalition" district... Van Hollen's residence takes all the fun out of that though, so maybe we should draw one of them out of Howard. The 1st is not a good district for Hoyer... but it would be an excellent district for Kratovil, hence why I counted it as a swing rather than a Republican district.
I don't consider these high Black populations as "packed", because they actually live that packedly - none of these districts combines the Black parts of several different cities via Black rural areas a la the 7th Alabama.

[muon2]

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

[muon2]

This is the more realistic version of a neutrally drawn map with two Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 6D - 2R.



CD 1 (blue) 57-41 McCain
CD 2 (green) 58-40 Obama
CD 3 (purple) 53.5% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 59.3% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 61-39 Obama
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 61-37 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

With the Democrats controlling things, a 5-3 map is unacceptable. My map throws such nice things as "minimizing county splits" out the window to try to preserve a 6-2 delegation, with a shot a 7-1.




MD-1 (Blue) 50.9% McCain, 50.4% Republican Average
MD-2 (Green) 54.3% Obama, 60.1% Democratic Average
MD-3 (Purple) 76.5% Obama, 76.5% Democratic Average, 54.0% VAP Black
MD-4 (Red) 84.4% Obama, 83.2% Democratic Average, 52.1% VAP Black
MD-5 (Yellow) 73.0% Obama, 73.9% Democratic Average, 51.7% VAP Black
MD-6 (Teal) 61.7% McCain, 61.5% Republican Average
MD-7 (Gray) 59.7% Obama, 59.0% Democratic Average
MD-8 (Lavender) 68.2% Obama, 69.3% Democratic Average

[muon2]

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

With the Democrats controlling things, a 5-3 map is unacceptable. My map throws such nice things as "minimizing county splits" out the window to try to preserve a 6-2 delegation, with a shot a 7-1.




MD-1 (Blue) 50.9% McCain, 50.4% Republican Average
MD-2 (Green) 54.3% Obama, 60.1% Democratic Average
MD-3 (Purple) 76.5% Obama, 76.5% Democratic Average, 54.0% VAP Black
MD-4 (Red) 84.4% Obama, 83.2% Democratic Average, 52.1% VAP Black
MD-5 (Yellow) 73.0% Obama, 73.9% Democratic Average, 51.7% VAP Black
MD-6 (Teal) 61.7% McCain, 61.5% Republican Average
MD-7 (Gray) 59.7% Obama, 59.0% Democratic Average
MD-8 (Lavender) 68.2% Obama, 69.3% Democratic Average

I assumed that the Dems wouldn't even consider a map with three Black-majority districts, and since it wouldn't be required I took a neutral approach.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I assumed that the Dems wouldn't even consider a map with three Black-majority districts, and since it wouldn't be required I took a neutral approach.

I realize that. I was simply showing what the Democrats might do if three Black-majority districts were required. It was basically an intellectual exercise of "can a map with three Black-majority districts preserve a 6-2 Democratic majority?"

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's a map that attempts to maintain the Democratic incumbents' current seats as much as possible:



Some concessions had to be made, such as moving MD-07's non-black portions from Howard County to Anne Arundel, and shifting the PG County portion of MD-05 into MD-01 to get rid of Harris.

MD-01 - 53-46 Obama
MD-02 - 58-40 Obama
MD-03 - 60-39 Obama
MD-04 - 88-12 Obama, 57% black VAP
MD-05 - 65-34 Obama
MD-06 - 63-35 McCain
MD-07 - 74-25 Obama, 51% black VAP
MD-08 - 68-31 Obama

Obviously there's no need for the map to be this ugly to protect the incumbents in a general election, given how Maryland has shifted further to the Democrats over the past decade, but they'll still be concerned about primary challengers.

[timothyinMD]

Atrocious!

[Devils30]

Its pretty clear using that redistricting tool that a 7-1 map is very possible with majority minority districts still intact but 70%-80% Obama instead of 85%. You can make 1 very red district stretch from appalachia all the way down the eastern shore and the rest at least 57% for Obama.

[timothyinMD]

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

With the Democrats controlling things, a 5-3 map is unacceptable. My map throws such nice things as "minimizing county splits" out the window to try to preserve a 6-2 delegation, with a shot a 7-1.




MD-1 (Blue) 50.9% McCain, 50.4% Republican Average
MD-2 (Green) 54.3% Obama, 60.1% Democratic Average
MD-3 (Purple) 76.5% Obama, 76.5% Democratic Average, 54.0% VAP Black
MD-4 (Red) 84.4% Obama, 83.2% Democratic Average, 52.1% VAP Black
MD-5 (Yellow) 73.0% Obama, 73.9% Democratic Average, 51.7% VAP Black
MD-6 (Teal) 61.7% McCain, 61.5% Republican Average
MD-7 (Gray) 59.7% Obama, 59.0% Democratic Average
MD-8 (Lavender) 68.2% Obama, 69.3% Democratic Average

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

[Skill and Chance]

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

With the Democrats controlling things, a 5-3 map is unacceptable. My map throws such nice things as "minimizing county splits" out the window to try to preserve a 6-2 delegation, with a shot a 7-1.




MD-1 (Blue) 50.9% McCain, 50.4% Republican Average
MD-2 (Green) 54.3% Obama, 60.1% Democratic Average
MD-3 (Purple) 76.5% Obama, 76.5% Democratic Average, 54.0% VAP Black
MD-4 (Red) 84.4% Obama, 83.2% Democratic Average, 52.1% VAP Black
MD-5 (Yellow) 73.0% Obama, 73.9% Democratic Average, 51.7% VAP Black
MD-6 (Teal) 61.7% McCain, 61.5% Republican Average
MD-7 (Gray) 59.7% Obama, 59.0% Democratic Average
MD-8 (Lavender) 68.2% Obama, 69.3% Democratic Average

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

Have you seen NC and IL?  Retaliation is probably the name of the game for the rest of this cycle.  MD Dems will go 5-3 the day the NC GOP goes 7-6.  The GOP holds like 80% of the cards this cycle anyway, so don't sweat one state too much.  Look at it this way. The Dems have IL: +3-5, CA: +2-4, FL: +1 net, WA:+1, NV: +1, MD: +1, and maybe WV: +1.  The GOP has: NC:+3-4, TX: +2-3,  GA: +2, UT: +2, SC: +1, IN: +1, AZ: +1, and maybe TN +1.  On top of that, the GOP is set for a 9-5 split in MI, 12-4 in OH, 12-6 in PA, 8-3 in VA, at least 18 out of 27 in FL, and 4-3 in CO, which are all states that Obama won by a substantial margin.     

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

On principle, I agree. However, my map was intended to be an intellectual excercise on what a Democratic gerrymander would look like with a requirement of three black-majority districts. It was in no way intended to be a serious proposal, a prediction of what will be done, or an argument as to what should be done.

[timothyinMD]

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

With the Democrats controlling things, a 5-3 map is unacceptable. My map throws such nice things as "minimizing county splits" out the window to try to preserve a 6-2 delegation, with a shot a 7-1.




MD-1 (Blue) 50.9% McCain, 50.4% Republican Average
MD-2 (Green) 54.3% Obama, 60.1% Democratic Average
MD-3 (Purple) 76.5% Obama, 76.5% Democratic Average, 54.0% VAP Black
MD-4 (Red) 84.4% Obama, 83.2% Democratic Average, 52.1% VAP Black
MD-5 (Yellow) 73.0% Obama, 73.9% Democratic Average, 51.7% VAP Black
MD-6 (Teal) 61.7% McCain, 61.5% Republican Average
MD-7 (Gray) 59.7% Obama, 59.0% Democratic Average
MD-8 (Lavender) 68.2% Obama, 69.3% Democratic Average

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

Have you seen NC and IL?  Retaliation is probably the name of the game for the rest of this cycle.  MD Dems will go 5-3 the day the NC GOP goes 7-6.  The GOP holds like 80% of the cards this cycle anyway, so don't sweat one state too much.  Look at it this way. The Dems have IL: +3-5, CA: +2-4, FL: +1 net, WA:+1, NV: +1, MD: +1, and maybe WV: +1.  The GOP has: NC:+3-4, TX: +2-3,  GA: +2, UT: +2, SC: +1, IN: +1, AZ: +1, and maybe TN +1.  On top of that, the GOP is set for a 9-5 split in MI, 12-4 in OH, 12-6 in PA, 8-3 in VA, at least 18 out of 27 in FL, and 4-3 in CO, which are all states that Obama won by a substantial margin.     

I don't like any of it.   Of course Maryland is of highest interest to me as I know the state inside and out.  I'd be happy with a 24-12 Texas map in exchange for a 4-4 Maryland map or a 10-8 Illinois map

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

With the Democrats controlling things, a 5-3 map is unacceptable. My map throws such nice things as "minimizing county splits" out the window to try to preserve a 6-2 delegation, with a shot a 7-1.




MD-1 (Blue) 50.9% McCain, 50.4% Republican Average
MD-2 (Green) 54.3% Obama, 60.1% Democratic Average
MD-3 (Purple) 76.5% Obama, 76.5% Democratic Average, 54.0% VAP Black
MD-4 (Red) 84.4% Obama, 83.2% Democratic Average, 52.1% VAP Black
MD-5 (Yellow) 73.0% Obama, 73.9% Democratic Average, 51.7% VAP Black
MD-6 (Teal) 61.7% McCain, 61.5% Republican Average
MD-7 (Gray) 59.7% Obama, 59.0% Democratic Average
MD-8 (Lavender) 68.2% Obama, 69.3% Democratic Average

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

Have you seen NC and IL?  Retaliation is probably the name of the game for the rest of this cycle.  MD Dems will go 5-3 the day the NC GOP goes 7-6.  The GOP holds like 80% of the cards this cycle anyway, so don't sweat one state too much.  Look at it this way. The Dems have IL: +3-5, CA: +2-4, FL: +1 net, WA:+1, NV: +1, MD: +1, and maybe WV: +1.  The GOP has: NC:+3-4, TX: +2-3,  GA: +2, UT: +2, SC: +1, IN: +1, AZ: +1, and maybe TN +1.  On top of that, the GOP is set for a 9-5 split in MI, 12-4 in OH, 12-6 in PA, 8-3 in VA, at least 18 out of 27 in FL, and 4-3 in CO, which are all states that Obama won by a substantial margin.     

UT is difficult to pin down. And getting rid of Matheson isn't just about "doing it" but doing it right. The gain of the new seat in AZ, is I beleive going to severely weaken the GOP numbers in AZ-01. So it could be a wash in AZ.

[Skill and Chance]

Though I don't expect it would be required, here's my version with 3 Black-majority districts. All are within 100 of the ideal population, and county splits are minimized. The political split ends up 5D - 3R.



CD 1 (blue) 52-46 McCain
CD 2 (green) 56-42 McCain
CD 3 (purple) 54.1% Black VAP
CD 4 (red) 50.9% Black VAP
CD 5 (gold) 52.1% Black VAP
CD 6 (teal) 57-41 McCain
CD 7 (gray) 62-36 Obama
CD 8 (slate) 72-26 Obama

With the Democrats controlling things, a 5-3 map is unacceptable. My map throws such nice things as "minimizing county splits" out the window to try to preserve a 6-2 delegation, with a shot a 7-1.




MD-1 (Blue) 50.9% McCain, 50.4% Republican Average
MD-2 (Green) 54.3% Obama, 60.1% Democratic Average
MD-3 (Purple) 76.5% Obama, 76.5% Democratic Average, 54.0% VAP Black
MD-4 (Red) 84.4% Obama, 83.2% Democratic Average, 52.1% VAP Black
MD-5 (Yellow) 73.0% Obama, 73.9% Democratic Average, 51.7% VAP Black
MD-6 (Teal) 61.7% McCain, 61.5% Republican Average
MD-7 (Gray) 59.7% Obama, 59.0% Democratic Average
MD-8 (Lavender) 68.2% Obama, 69.3% Democratic Average

What's unacceptable is ripping Maryland communities to shreds like they did in 2001. 

Have you seen NC and IL?  Retaliation is probably the name of the game for the rest of this cycle.  MD Dems will go 5-3 the day the NC GOP goes 7-6.  The GOP holds like 80% of the cards this cycle anyway, so don't sweat one state too much.  Look at it this way. The Dems have IL: +3-5, CA: +2-4, FL: +1 net, WA:+1, NV: +1, MD: +1, and maybe WV: +1.  The GOP has: NC:+3-4, TX: +2-3,  GA: +2, UT: +2, SC: +1, IN: +1, AZ: +1, and maybe TN +1.  On top of that, the GOP is set for a 9-5 split in MI, 12-4 in OH, 12-6 in PA, 8-3 in VA, at least 18 out of 27 in FL, and 4-3 in CO, which are all states that Obama won by a substantial margin.     

I don't like any of it.   Of course Maryland is of highest interest to me as I know the state inside and out.  I'd be happy with a 24-12 Texas map in exchange for a 4-4 Maryland map or a 10-8 Illinois map

I could settle for a 5-3 MD, a 6-3 MA, a 3-2 CT, a 17-10 NY and a 10-8 IL for at least a 1 person  majority of the delegation in any state where Obama got more than 53% of the vote + a 5-6 VA and more than 11 seats in FL.  That statement demonstrates how badly the current system is tilted toward one party.

[timothyinMD]

Not really.  It's not surprising that Republican have such a lopsided majority in some states.

The cold hard truth is that Democrats are highly concentrated in urban districts that vote 70-95% Democrat, and Republicans are concentrated in rural/suburban districts that vote 55-75% Republican.  That's just the way it is

[freepcrusher]

Not really.  It's not surprising that Republican have such a lopsided majority in some states.

The cold hard truth is that Democrats are highly concentrated in urban districts that vote 70-95% Democrat, and Republicans are concentrated in rural/suburban districts that vote 55-75% Republican.  That's just the way it is

which is why I find it interesting that in 1976, it was the opposite. There were 24 districts in Texas back then. Carter won the state with 51% of the vote yet won 18 of the 24 districts. The republican vote was concentrated in the 3rd district (72% Ford) and the 7th (73% Ford). The four other districts Ford won were won by small margins and because they were ancestrally democratic and had senior incumbents the democrats had a 22-2 delegation.

[krazen1211]

http://articles.centermaryland.org/?p=2898

Hoyer has urged his colleagues to facilitate a comeback for Kratovil, who held the 1st District seat before being ousted by Harris in 2010 – and who, by the way, is an old family friend of Hoyer’s. The minority whip argued that Kratovil was a talented member who took some tough votes for the Democrats – including supporting the cap-and-trade bill – and deserved a chance to represent a friendlier district.

But Edwards made the case, according to sources, that Kratovil’s 2008 win was a fluke – and that even bringing the 1st District across the Bay Bridge into Prince George’s County or Baltimore City might not provide enough Democrats for Kratovil to win. She also argued that that adding African-American voters into an Eastern Shore district was the wrong thing to do


Basic intraparty bickering.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

That makes sense, actually. What they describe (western Maryland to Rockville) could be drawn as a 57-42 Obama district, which for Maryland is pretty much safe Dem.

I disagree that Kratovil was a fluke, though -- he still did much better on the Eastern Shore than he did in the Baltimore suburbs in 2010.