America 2050- We talk about future elections...but what will the stances be?

[pbrower2a]

If the Republican Party goes into a death spiral by betting on an Obama failure and Obama succeeds spectacularly, then Obama might have built the ultimate Big Tent coalition that includes everyone for lack of alternatives. Such has happened twice in American history with the demise of the Federalists and the demise of the Whigs. In both cases the older Democratic Party became the only game in town, and because the political victories were won in primaries and state conventions, the Democratic Party became unwieldy. In both cases the Democratic Party split.

Regional differences in America remain strong -- about as clear as they are in, for example, Italy... or Britain (American political culture is very much a British import, and regional differences in America themselves reflect the cultural divides in Great Britain before 1776. Even where the population is very different from the original British (or in the case of greater New York, Dutch) settlers, later immigrants adapted early-American institutions to their own ends. Irish political machines operate much like the Puritan machines of New England; New York City has been a multi-ethnic community since it was the hick town of New Amsterdam.

The Republican Party has a non-negligible chance of dying. Its regional appeal seems to be shrinking. http://i.usatoday.net/news/TheOval/National-Journal-1-16-2009.pdf Not only must it live down culpability in the worst economic hardships since the Great Depression, but it also is associated with the corruption of the last GOP President.  Herbert Hoover had a moral compass and ran a squeaky-clean administration, which one cannot say of Dubya.

I predict that the Democratic Party will have split long before 2050 (perhaps around 2020), most likely along a line that exists in much of western Europe: a conservative party and a social-democratic party.

[pbrower2a]

Human Cloning may be an issue.... Completely unethical today, but who knows in the future.

I don't know how much of The Boys From Brazil (a brilliant but evil mad scientist modeled after Joseph Mengele clones duplicates of Adolf Hitler, arranges to have them be adopted by politically-conservative and authoritarian 53-year-old men who have 'accidents' at age 66 that leave their adopted sons without a father -- as was the case for Hitler) can ring true... but that's not how it would work. I think that the system would clone obedient, undemanding workhorses of people who would be perfect slaves at work and pliable supporters of a dictatorial order.

Human individuality is a virtue, and if there is to be any genetic engineering, then at least let it be to reduce the occurrence of such genetically-connected horrors as Tay-Sachs disease, MS, congenital heart disease, cystic fibrosis, diabetes mellitus, and certain forms of inheritable feeble-mindedness. If there is any connection of genetics to the sociopathic personality, then let genetic engineering work to eliminate that built-in moral hazard of tigers in human bodies.   

[pbrower2a]

Human Cloning may be an issue.... Completely unethical today, but who knows in the future.

I don't know how much of The Boys From Brazil (a brilliant but evil mad scientist modeled after Joseph Mengele clones duplicates of Adolf Hitler, arranges to have them be adopted by politically-conservative and authoritarian 53-year-old men who have 'accidents' at age 66 that leave their adopted sons without a father -- as was the case for Hitler) can ring true... but that's not how it would work. I think that the system would clone obedient, undemanding workhorses of people who would be perfect slaves at work and pliable supporters of a dictatorial order.

Human individuality is a virtue, and if there is to be any genetic engineering, then at least let it be to reduce the occurrence of such genetically-connected horrors as Tay-Sachs disease, MS, congenital heart disease, cystic fibrosis, diabetes mellitus, and certain forms of inheritable feeble-mindedness. If there is any connection of genetics to the sociopathic personality, then let genetic engineering work to eliminate that built-in moral hazard of tigers in human bodies.   

Yes. That's basically what should happen. There needs to be good regulation...really good regulation, where Human Rights are perserved and are not arbitrarily set to benefit a private and partial interest like what has happened with Human Rights in the past (i.e. the Anti-Abortion movement, the Pro-Abortion Rights movement...both sides of the slavery and labor rights movement). See the thread where Don trolled me and you will see that I have some idea of what could work and what wouldn't. The entire idea of "designer babies" isn't inherently a bad idea, so long as it is not made to discriminate against certain discrete and insular minorities and is not used to cause intentional disabilities in children and is publically funded, so as to perserve and develop more social mobility.

Genetic engineering is an inevitability. Ideally it protects human individuality, and that is hardly inconsistent with the elimination of genetically-linked diseases. Such a disease as Tay-Sachs, Huntington's chorea, or cystic fibrosis erodes one's potential for self-expression. But if it is intended to offer a white child to black parents so that the child will never face the burdens of discrimination, then such reflects a fault in society best dealt with as such (discriminatory tendencies) instead of through genetic denial.


One danger is the potential for exploitation for either social engineering (the moral hazard of engineering people to fit into the ideals that some hierarchy sets, as in Huxley's Brave New World) or for commercial exploitation, as with some family trying to have a clone of Peyton Manning or Alex Rodriguez to ensure itself of a stream of fortune. That might be trickier if one wants a clone of Jimmy Stewart or Audrey Hepburn, as acting is a culturally-loaded activity. 

[pbrower2a]

On cloning for economic advantages:

What's wrong in allowing us to have people whose only chance at a living is to do menial work? We will still need people to do the store-clerking, the janitorial work, and the busing of tables.  We would do far better to improve the rewards for doing low-skilled but still-necessary work. We don't need to create a surfeit of surgeons, attorneys, software engineers, or particle physicists -- people who might be pushed into jobs at which they chafe because they have the "wrong" family connections.  Anyone who wants to avoid violent revolution needs remember what happens when talented people meet a political order such as Imperial Russia that has little use for them.

We don't need to breed the likes of Roger Clemens or Barry Bonds. One of either is enough... and I don't think either one of them particularly desirable people except for their talents at throwing or hitting baseballs.  To recreate either is to cheapen the original or make a mockery of an entertainment. (Tellingly, horse racing prohibits cloned horses, so there won't be an exact clone of Barbaro competing at a track near you).

Individuality is precious, and it allows expressions that might offer innovations. If I were to clone anyone for personal gain it would be Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart. But that would cheapen Mozart, wouldn't it? (The costly music lessons would pay for themselves very well, thank you!)

[pbrower2a]

40 years from now?

If you follow the theories of Howe and Strauss, times roughly 80 years apart (maybe 70 at times, maybe 90), have similar tempers. 2050 will probably be more like 1970 than like 2009. Expect young adults to challenge the political consensus, the religious norms, and the culture of people born from about 1980 to 2000. Today's clean-cut, conformist, pleasant kids will have become clean-cut, conformist adults with a largely-insipid culture with the equivalents of aging crooners like Bing Crosby and Andy Williams. The 2050-era equivalent of "Easy Listening" Music will be everywhere, and kids will hate it. Expect such musical performances as revivals of Hair, Tommy, and Jesus Christ Superstar to do astonishingly well.

Even if there is no equivalent of the Vietnam War, there will be cultural ferment. Expect to see young adults mock the corporate style of their fathers who got America through the dangerous era of 2005-2020 with long hair, worn jeans, tie-dyed linens, and the like. Beatniks will have given way to hippies.

[pbrower2a]

Sounds like Futurama to me. I bet the world would probably be like Futurama by like 2250, if we discover how to travel in relativistic dimensons and speeds. Then again, if we ever did get FTL, would it change the world that much?

1. Someone would assassinate Hitler.

2. Someone would assassinate Stalin.

3. Someone would assassinate Miguel de Torquemada. (Spanish Inquisition)

4. Someone would betray John Gacy and Ted Bundy to the relevant police forces.

5. Someone might bring a bicycle to the Roman Empire (I can't imagine a technology that would have done more good for more people at the right time) and show how to use it.

6. Someone might lock the door to the President's box at Ford's Theater during a performance of Our American Cousin in April 1865.

[pbrower2a]

Sounds like Futurama to me. I bet the world would probably be like Futurama by like 2250, if we discover how to travel in relativistic dimensons and speeds. Then again, if we ever did get FTL, would it change the world that much?

1. Someone would assassinate Hitler.

2. Someone would assassinate Stalin.

3. Someone would assassinate Miguel de Torquemada. (Spanish Inquisition)

4. Someone would betray John Gacy and Ted Bundy to the relevant police forces.

5. Someone might bring a bicycle to the Roman Empire (I can't imagine a technology that would have done more good for more people at the right time) and show how to use it.

6. Someone might lock the door to the President's box at Ford's Theater during a performance of Our American Cousin in April 1865.

Helping out the Roman Empire would come dead last on my agenda.  I would be more eager to help the people who fought against them... for the most part.

Roman Empire? Who cares. The people of the Roman Empire? Much different.

The bicycle would have been the simplest modern technology to imitate in antiquity, and it alone would have made life safer and more efficient. It would have also made slavery harder to enforce. It's just surprising that nobody invented it until modern times.