where is the kerry surge?

[WalterMitty]

it's been the talk of the media since thursday's debate.  but ive seen very little proof that kerry has narrowed the gap in a significant way.

is it just me, or is the media doing a little 'wishful thinking'?

[J. J.]

Well basically the bounce is that Kerry is not losing as badly.

[Defarge]

Kerry is currently anywhere from down 3 to up 2.  Better than the debate last month about whether Kerry was down by 3, or down by 10.

[Pollwatch99]

It's really questionable to average Poll results.  However, it's one way to look at least how the media is reporting the race.  At least in turns of poll reporting, Kerry has closed the gap 3.9% using the averages.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

[AuH2O]

Well, the pre-debate averages included several polls that Democrats and a lot of others completely discounted.

If you remove those- particularly the ones that now have shown the biggest Kerry swing, Newseek and Gallup- the race hasn't changed very much.

Pew, a very strong firm, shows Bush up 5 (down a couple points from pre-debate). The tracking polls all show Bush leading.

A LOT of people predicted that, after the debate- regardless of pundit-outcome, the Bush-friendly polls would be replaced by more Dem-friendly ones, and then the media would declare Kerry back in the race. This serves 2 purposes:

1) a close race is better for the media

2) the media would prefer Kerry win

So none of this is surprising. Kerry's support remains fundamentally weak and there is nothing in the world that is going to change that.

[Lunar]

Kerry has gained a few points.  I don't think anyone expected more than that.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

On CNN's Inside Politics today, they had a feature on their "Poll of Polls"....the average of 5 or 6 organizations that polled the race pre- and post-debate.  Before the debate, the average was 49-43 (Bush +6).  Currently, the average is 48-46 (Bush +2). 

The averages on my pollbooth spreadsheet suggest a 5-point Bush lead pre-debate, and a Bush lead of 1.5% among post-debate polls.

I think this is about as good a "surge" as you can expect from any debate in the election environment.

[Pollwatch99]

Courtesy of www.realclearpolitics.com (check post debate poll commentary).  Seems like Kerry got an 8 point bounce of a +1 depending on Pollster

Little or No Post-Debate Bounce
Poll            Pre-Debate*  Post-Debate*  Change
Fox News   Bush +3          Bush +2.5        Kerry + 0.5
ABC News  Bush +6          Bush +5           Kerry + 1
Zogby        Bush +3          Bush +2           Kerry + 1
Rasmussen Bush +4         Bush +4           TIE
ARG            Bush +1          TIE                   Kerry + 1
 
Significant Post-Debate Bounce
Poll                        Pre-Debate*  Post-Debate*  Change
CNN/USAT/Gallup  Bush +8            TIE                  Kerry + 8
CBS News/NYT      Bush +9            Bush +0.5       Kerry + 8.5
Newsweek            Bush +5.5        Kerry +2.5       Kerry +8
 
Average Post-Debate Bounce
Poll                  Pre-Debate*  Post-Debate*  Change
Pew Research Bush +8           Bush +5           Kerry +3
 

[Democratic Hawk]

The race is more competitive as a result of the first debate. The momentum's with Kerry and Bush needs to recover from his abysmal performance last Thursday.

Remember that polls indicated that only 18% of the electorate would change their vote on the basis of the debates.

Dave

[MODU]

You won't see much of a bounce or surge at this point since so many of the voting population has already made up their mind on whom to vote for.  What you will see is a slight shift (at most) in one direction or another, and most likely after all the debates are completed or unless some fantastic news comes out for either candidate.

As of right now, Bush is still anywhere between 1-5% ahead of Kerry nationally.