https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200712_TX.pdf
Among likely voters in the general election:
MoE: 2.4%
Sample size: 1677
Cornyn 42%
Hegar 29%
Other 5%
Undecided 22%
Cornyn 43%
West 28%
Other 6%
Undecided 23%
Among likely voters in the primary runoff:
MoE: 3.4%
Sample size: 829
Hegar 35%
West 22%
Other 11%
Undecided 32%
Thank you for this! I think Hegar’s going to lose by double digits. Here’s the math:
34% of Dems are undecided. If they all would choose Hegar, she’d gain 12.6 points and jump to 41.6%. But I don’t think they’ll all choose Hegar, so let’s make that 40.4%.
20% of Reps are undecided. If they all would choose Cornyn, he’d gain 8.4 points and jump to 50.4%. He would win the election.
31% of Indys are undecided. If they would break for Cornyn 60-40, he’d gain 3.5 points and Hegar would gain 2.4 points.
Cornyn 54/43.
You neglect to count for the massive suburban Dem vote that sunbelt Republican Senators with a penis and a radiant smile get.
