Greek election - January 25th 2015

[Velasco]

They are obviously referring to the veiled (or in some cases very direct) threats by EU and German officials of Greece exiting the Eurozone if SYRIZA is elected.  And I couldn't agree more with them.  If Greece is still an independent country they should be allowed to vote for whoever is best for them, not for Merkel or Germany.

Well, Germany and the rest of the eurozone share a currency with Greece and a number of countries have invested a lot of money in ensuring the prevention of a complete Greek default (i.e. a complete restructuring of the debt would have serious consequences for Germany's balance sheet as well). So it's perfectly natural and normal for these leaders to have a position on what is transpiring in Greece. Moreover, it's sensible to remind the Greek electorate that Syriza's plans (debt write offs + ECB QE to fund Syriza's budgetary vision) won't come to fruition.

I'm afraid that you are missing something with those massive loans, mostly granted by the ECB, the EU and the IMF (only a tiny share came directly from Germany).

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2012-05-23/merkel-should-know-her-country-has-been-bailed-out-too

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2. It would be a violation of Greek sovereignty to disagree in any way with its elected government in negotiations.

Don't make sh**t up please.  Nowhere in the appeal does it say that.

Good thing I didn't say they said that, right? But it's patently obvious that this is the petty logical fallacy leading them to jump to the defence of Greece's democratic right to whatever it wants in negotiations, but not Germany's

No. They come to say that Greek people is as sovereign as German people to choose the government they think it will defend better their interests. Also, the signatories hope that a Syriza's victory would represent "green shots of change for Europe". They can be blamed for being too optimistic. However, the fallacy might be well contained in the tricky mechanisms and the narrative behind of those massive loans granted to Greece, attached with an austerity package which certainly has contributed to further ruin the country.  

[EPG]

Maybe Greece should have kept borrowing massively to run massive government deficits, but it's not clear that anyone at all would have been willing to lend massively in that context. The usual solution is to print money in a monetary devaluation that cuts their international purchasing power, but they didn't want to quit the euro, and they still don't, and as it happened the internal devaluation didn't increase their exports.

[politicus]

Guys, this is really boring.

[EPG]

I think you are right.

[Zanas]

Yeah, defending the oppressed is boring. Let's end that already. Let's switch to the oppressors' side, it seems much more entertaining. They even have Luftballons. 99 of them, apparently.

[Velasco]

Reading the same old fables on the bailout and the debt is what really bores me to death. At least, try to find out what "debt-restructuring" and "public audit" mean, what's the true motivation behind the bailouts and who are the final beneficiaries. Certainly not the Greek people, and I doubt the very common German citizens are benefiting at all. 

[Beezer]

They are obviously referring to the veiled (or in some cases very direct) threats by EU and German officials of Greece exiting the Eurozone if SYRIZA is elected.  And I couldn't agree more with them.  If Greece is still an independent country they should be allowed to vote for whoever is best for them, not for Merkel or Germany.

Well, Germany and the rest of the eurozone share a currency with Greece and a number of countries have invested a lot of money in ensuring the prevention of a complete Greek default (i.e. a complete restructuring of the debt would have serious consequences for Germany's balance sheet as well). So it's perfectly natural and normal for these leaders to have a position on what is transpiring in Greece. Moreover, it's sensible to remind the Greek electorate that Syriza's plans (debt write offs + ECB QE to fund Syriza's budgetary vision) won't come to fruition.

I'm afraid that you are missing something with those massive loans, mostly granted by the ECB, the EU and the IMF (only a tiny share came directly from Germany).

And where do you think the EU or ECB get their money from?

[Velasco]

Please, care to read the text I linked before and extract your own conclusions. Otherwise, it'd be boring to continue this discussion. Boring to death.

[MaxQue]

They are obviously referring to the veiled (or in some cases very direct) threats by EU and German officials of Greece exiting the Eurozone if SYRIZA is elected.  And I couldn't agree more with them.  If Greece is still an independent country they should be allowed to vote for whoever is best for them, not for Merkel or Germany.

Well, Germany and the rest of the eurozone share a currency with Greece and a number of countries have invested a lot of money in ensuring the prevention of a complete Greek default (i.e. a complete restructuring of the debt would have serious consequences for Germany's balance sheet as well). So it's perfectly natural and normal for these leaders to have a position on what is transpiring in Greece. Moreover, it's sensible to remind the Greek electorate that Syriza's plans (debt write offs + ECB QE to fund Syriza's budgetary vision) won't come to fruition.

I'm afraid that you are missing something with those massive loans, mostly granted by the ECB, the EU and the IMF (only a tiny share came directly from Germany).

And where do you think the EU or ECB get their money from?

Partly from Germany, but clearly under 50%. So,Merkel should stop monopolising all Europe for her. You lost WWI, you lost WWII and you won't be allowed to rule Europe.

[Beezer]

Please, care to read the text I linked before and extract your own conclusions. Otherwise, it'd be boring to continue this discussion. Boring to death.

The initial and primary point still stands - Eurozone taxpayers will share these losses, ergo their governments unsurprisingly have an interest in the outcome of these elections. There really is no such thing as "national sovereignty" in the EU of 2015 anymore.

Whether Germany has made money from these various bailouts is also up for debate seeing as the point can be made that the share of the Greek debt held by German banks (among Eurozone banks) a few years ago amounts to the share Germany pays into a variety of funds (ECB, ESM).

[Beezer]

Partly from Germany, but clearly under 50%. So,Merkel should stop monopolising all Europe for her. You lost WWI, you lost WWII and you won't be allowed to rule Europe.

Merkel can't run Europe (if she is even doing that) without the support of a variety of other countries. So blame Austria, Finland, the Netherlands etc. for going along with her policy proposals.

[justfollowingtheelections]

There really is no such thing as "national sovereignty" in the EU of 2015 anymore.

Wow.  Just wow.

[Zanas]

There really is no such thing as "national sovereignty" in the EU of 2015 anymore.

Wow.  Just wow.

Well it's kind of true.

[Beezer]

There really is no such thing as "national sovereignty" in the EU of 2015 anymore.

Wow.  Just wow.

Where have you been these past few decades? Of course you can claim that every country can theoretically leave the EU now (so they do hold the reigns of power in a nuclear option sense) but when it comes to the day to day running of the EU and its member states national sovereignty has been curtailed.

[MaxQue]

There really is no such thing as "national sovereignty" in the EU of 2015 anymore.

Wow.  Just wow.

Where have you been these past few decades? Of course you can claim that every country can theoretically leave the EU now (so they do hold the reigns of power in a nuclear option sense) but when it comes to the day to day running of the EU and its member states national sovereignty has been curtailed.

Hence why it's important to inflict as much defeats as possible to neoliberal Eurocrats and German business interests.

[politicus]

Yeah, defending the oppressed is boring. Let's end that already. Let's switch to the oppressors' side, it seems much more entertaining. They even have Luftballons. 99 of them, apparently.

Going back and forth over whether some petition from international academics which says that outsiders shouldn't interfere in the election is hypocritical is boring because it is irrelevant.

Petitions like that move no votes (ordinary people do not know Chomsky or Zizek, much less care about what they think of anything) and while one can symphatize with them or think they are pompous and hypocritical there is no point in arguing about it at length.
(and for the record I have nothing against solidarity proclamations)

The Germany vs. Greece blame game wih complimentary Merkel-bashing has been played out dozens of times here, so no need to repeat it.

This is a highly interesting election with lots of stuff happening on the ground in Greece. All I am saying is that it is time to move back to Greece and the polls.

[Hash]

Keep it under control, folks. If you want to debate whatever it is you're talking about, a thread in political debate or some other board may be more appropriate.

[Zanas]

Well I'm sure potential influences or even positions and postures about an election can be discussed in the thread about the election.

Well, we have 6 more polls, all by other pollsters, since I published an average just 2 days ago !

So I'm averaging all of them, an average of 10 polls whose fieldwork date back to Jan 4th for the furthest, which is acceptable. In brackets, first figure is seats if both Anel and Kidiso make it, second if only Anel makes it, third if none makes it)

Syriza   34,3 (141-144-147)
ND   30,6 (81-84-87)
Potami   6,7 (18-18-19)
XA   6,2 (16-17-18)
KKE   5,6 (15-15-16)
Pasok   4,8 (13-13-14)
Anel   3 (8-8-0)
Kidiso   2,9 (8-0-0)
Autres   6

A few trends that can be noted from these ten polls :
-Syriza's lead is quite steady at 3.5 pts, but they have a hard time growing over a glass ceiling of 35.
-ND has improved a bit and is now pushing 30
-there's a battle for second place between XA and Potami. Potami polls a little better, but I've already stated that the pollsters' corrections for them are somewhat optimistic sometimes. I wouldn't rule out XA ending third, but they won't get much more than 7 or 8.
-KKE is remarkably steady, polling between 5 and 6 in 8 out of these 10 polls. 5.5 % should be very close to their actual result, meaning ca. 15 seats guaranteed.
-Pasok has taken a blow, but not thatmuch of a blow. They poll as low as 3.5% in one of these, but as high as 6.5% in another. I don't really think that Kidiso can gobble up much more of their voters now. They should end around 5, maybe even above KKE if Kidiso voters get the feeling Kidiso won't make it to 3% in the final days.
-Anel is a big question mark. Their average is actually 2.95% ! They are in in 7 out of these 10 polls, but barely. Best score for them is 3.5, twice. With scared centre-right voters voting ND tactically in the final rush to avoid the intergalactic cataclysm of having a left-wing party in government, I'm pretty sure Anel won't make it in the end.
-Kidiso's the other question mark, but a lesser one. I'm not seeing a real momentum, it even seems they had to fake those two first polls that came out in their favor, which have completely disappeared... I'm not sure what Papandreou could offer to undecided voters so they'll vote for him, but he should still have a trick or two up his sleeve. Still, I'd say they only have 1 out of 5 chances to get in.

Polls publication is ending this weekend, I guess we'll still have a bunch this Saturday or even Sunday if that's allowed. And those last polls will be highly important, because they will set the final trends. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see one of these final polls showing ND recovering or even neck and neck with Syriza, just in order to launch a narrative. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if such a poll were completely made up. It's still Greece, after all.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How in the world has PASOK rebounded to 5% after falling below the threshold?

[politicus]

Well I'm sure potential influences or even positions and postures about an election can be discussed in the thread about the election.

The problem is it gets very repetitive - we have had the same basic discussions over and over again regarding Greece. If you were able to add a fresh perspective and new info it would be perceived differently.

[Zanas]

How in the world has PASOK rebounded to 5% after falling below the threshold?

Pasok never fell under the threshold in polling, at least not in any of the polls listed on the wiki. Actually their worst polling result is 3.5% in the Palmos poll this week. It really seems as if the two polls we talked about earlier putting them below Kidiso were nothing more than scams. That or the people maintaining the wiki on polling in Greece are Pasok officials. Still, all the other polls that came out since have Pasok 2 pts above Kidiso.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How in the world has PASOK rebounded to 5% after falling below the threshold?

Pasok never fell under the threshold in polling, at least not in any of the polls listed on the wiki. Actually their worst polling result is 3.5% in the Palmos poll this week. It really seems as if the two polls we talked about earlier putting them below Kidiso were nothing more than scams. That or the people maintaining the wiki on polling in Greece are Pasok officials. Still, all the other polls that came out since have Pasok 2 pts above Kidiso.

Ah, I see.

[politicus]

How in the world has PASOK rebounded to 5% after falling below the threshold?

Pasok never fell under the threshold in polling, at least not in any of the polls listed on the wiki. Actually their worst polling result is 3.5% in the Palmos poll this week. It really seems as if the two polls we talked about earlier putting them below Kidiso were nothing more than scams. That or the people maintaining the wiki on polling in Greece are Pasok officials. Still, all the other polls that came out since have Pasok 2 pts above Kidiso.

Ah, I see.

It just fitted nicely into a narrative of Pasok being an empty shell and Papandreou after all representing more of a genuine SD policy, but the rump Pasok voters seems to be creatures of habit and the continued existence of clientilistic networks around the country should not be underestimated as a factor.

[Famous Mortimer]

Rachil Makri, an MP formerly affiliated with Independent Greeks, will run with SYRIZA.

[politicus]

Rachil Makri, an MP formerly affiliated with Independent Greeks, will run with SYRIZA.

There has been some surprising party jumps. Given how populist ANEL is it may not be as big a leap as it sounds for some types.