NH-UMass Amherst/YouGov: Shaheen +3 over Sununu/+5 over Ayotte

[MT Treasurer]

45% Jeanne Shaheen (D, inc.)
42% Chris Sununu (R)

41% Jeanne Shaheen (D, inc.)
36% Kelly Ayotte (R)

Sununu approval: 60/33 (+27)
Shaheen approval: 49/42 (+7)
Trump approval: 41/57 (-16)

https://www.umass.edu/newsoffice/article/new-umass-amherst-polls-shows-shaheen

[Politician]

Likely D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sounds right.

[IceSpear]

So Shaheen at +7 approval leads Sununu at +27 approval? I guess Sununu's popularity is a mile wide and an inch deep.

[Boobs]

So Shaheen at +7 approval leads Sununu at +27 approval? I guess Sununu's popularity is a mile wide and an inch deep.

Sununu's wife has the same complaint.

[Xing]

Likely D.

Lean D with Sununu, otherwise, this.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So Shaheen at +7 approval leads Sununu at +27 approval? I guess Sununu's popularity is a mile wide and an inch deep.

Popular governors running for the senate in states that are partisan against their party doesn't always work.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So Shaheen at +7 approval leads Sununu at +27 approval? I guess Sununu's popularity is a mile wide and an inch deep.

Popular governors running for the senate in states that are partisan against their party doesn't always work.

Indeed--see Weld vs. Kerry 1996.

[S019]

Tilt D,

But comes down to the national environmmet, NH is a tossup, contrary to what Atlas believes, and both parties will heavily invest hear and the winner of NH’s 4 EVs will drag the Senate candidate over the finish line

If the election was today, I would say NH goes R and MI goes D, but this is Tilt D, because the election is more than a year away and Shaheen is a very popular incumbent. This will probably move to Tossup, but too early to tell

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So Shaheen at +7 approval leads Sununu at +27 approval? I guess Sununu's popularity is a mile wide and an inch deep.

Popular governors running for the senate in states that are partisan against their party doesn't always work.

Indeed--see Weld vs. Kerry 1996.

Including Blackburn vs. Bredesen 2018 and Lingle vs. Hirono 2012.

[SnowLabrador]

I really do think Sununu will be running. Shaheen might end up being Bill Nelson 2.0.

[Roll Roons]

So Shaheen at +7 approval leads Sununu at +27 approval? I guess Sununu's popularity is a mile wide and an inch deep.

Popular governors running for the senate in states that are partisan against their party doesn't always work.

Indeed--see Weld vs. Kerry 1996.

Including Blackburn vs. Bredesen 2018 and Lingle vs. Hirono 2012.

New Hampshire is really not comparable in terms of partisanship to Massachusetts, Tennessee or Hawaii. A Senate seat is very much within reach for Republicans, and I think Sununu would have a great shot, though his chances may be even better in 2022 if it's a midterm under a Democratic president.

[Senator Incitatus]

So Shaheen at +7 approval leads Sununu at +27 approval? I guess Sununu's popularity is a mile wide and an inch deep.

Popular governors running for the senate in states that are partisan against their party doesn't always work.

Indeed--see Weld vs. Kerry 1996.

Including Blackburn vs. Bredesen 2018 and Lingle vs. Hirono 2012.

New Hampshire is really not comparable in terms of partisanship to Massachusetts, Tennessee or Hawaii. A Senate seat is very much within reach for Republicans, and I think Sununu would have a great shot, though his chances may be even better in 2022 if it's a midterm under a Democratic president.

Better examples would be Kit Bond, Angus King, or Bob Kerrey (the first time). New Hampshire has a definitely Democratic lean, but it is not a solidly partisan state.

My early rating would be Lean D with either of these two Republicans and Likely D without.

[MT Treasurer]

New Hampshire has a very stubborn Democratic lean in federal races which is almost insurmountable for Republicans.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Lean D

[lfromnj]

So Shaheen at +7 approval leads Sununu at +27 approval? I guess Sununu's popularity is a mile wide and an inch deep.

Popular governors running for the senate in states that are partisan against their party doesn't always work.

yeah NH is a titanium D state
/s

[Morning in Atlas]

I really do think Sununu will berunning. Shaheen might end up being Bill Nelson 2.0.

You're making the assumption that Florida is as elastic and volatile to national moods as NH is.

[Cold War Liberal]

Didn't Chris Sununu definitively rule out a run for the Senate two years ago? I know politicians go back on their word all the time but going from, and I quote, "I will never run for the U.S. Senate" in direct reference to a 2020 run against Shaheen to running anyway seems like a leap to me...

[HarrisonL]

Shaheen is most likely going win again, even if Trump flipped New Hampshire she would still win. Shaheen is a more established Senator than Hassan, and would beat Kelly Ayotte, Frank Guinta, or any Republican thrown at her, by at least 4-5%.

Governor Sununu could beat Shaheen, but as he has already declined to run, I don't see the point to looking at polls pertaining to a potential senate campaign from him next year.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

So Shaheen at +7 approval leads Sununu at +27 approval? I guess Sununu's popularity is a mile wide and an inch deep.

Sununu's wife has the same complaint.

She must be an Angry New Hampshire Woman.

[SnowLabrador]

Someone else said this somewhere on this forum (I forget who), but if Sununu stops governing exclusively from the right, that's a sign that he'll run. It was the same with Rick Scott in Florida.

[S019]

Shaheen is most likely going win again, even if Trump flipped New Hampshire she would still win. Shaheen is a more established Senator than Hassan, and would beat Kelly Ayotte, Frank Guinta, or any Republican thrown at her, by at least 4-5%.

Governor Sununu could beat Shaheen, but as he has already declined to run, I don't see the point to looking at polls pertaining to a potential senate campaign from him next year.

Many times, politicians decline and look back at the race later, for example, early on, Joe Biden repeatedly declined that he had interest in the race.

[Morning in Atlas]

Someone else said this somewhere on this forum (I forget who), but if Sununu stops governing exclusively from the right, that's a sign that he'll run. It was the same with Rick Scott in Florida.

That was me. Sununu is very calculating in his political approaches, and his grand flip-flop on Planned Parenthood sent out a huge signal in 2016 that he'd run. It was a massive shock to see him even vote to fund it, considering he voted against funding in 2012/2014.

Shaheen is most likely going win again, even if Trump flipped New Hampshire she would still win. Shaheen is a more established Senator than Hassan, and would beat Kelly Ayotte, Frank Guinta, or any Republican thrown at her, by at least 4-5%.

Governor Sununu could beat Shaheen, but as he has already declined to run, I don't see the point to looking at polls pertaining to a potential senate campaign from him next year.

Many times, politicians decline and look back at the race later, for example, early on, Joe Biden repeatedly declined that he had interest in the race.

Again, if he runs, I think he'll wait until 2022 or 2026, depending on whether Trump gets re-elected or not. If there's a Democratic president and midterm turnout trends continue, it'll be at least Lean R if he gets in.

[Nyvin]

Trump is really unpopular here,  that's what will matter more than anything in 2020.   Shaheen is heavily favored even against Sununu.   A Senate seat is much more heavily tied to the national party than a governor seat is.

In Florida Trump was relatively well liked outside of the Cuban population.

[Ye We Can]

Sununu will run in 2022 if he's got any brains