IA-Selzer: Warren 22, Biden 20, Sanders 11, Buttigieg 9, Harris 6

[JA]

The problem with Warren isn't that she holds positions far outside of the mainstream because, on economic issues, she doesn't. One of her main issues will be one shared by pretty much every Democrat - cultural and political polarization. Warren will come across as an East Coast, Ivy League, out-of-touch elitist to many potential swing voters. Culturally conservative Americans who might could stomach casting a vote for someone less culturally "alien" would struggle to vote for Warren. The same is true, to varying degrees, for every other Democrat as well (except, maybe Biden, but he risks alienating his left flank).

Another problem I can see with Warren is lower minority turnout. She doesn't perform horribly with minorities like Sanders does with older voters, but she doesn't perform that well either. I don't foresee her being a sufficiently motivating person to propel minority voters to the polls. That is a potentially more significant problem than alienating culturally conservative Independents.

Warren will do a remarkable job of firing up the Democratic base and will likely continue to make inroads into the urban and suburban areas - largely because of existing demographic trends in the suburbs that are favorable to the Democrats. College-educated women will be Warren's primary base. She will almost certainly significantly outperform even Clinton among White college-educated voters. The urban+suburban/rural divide will only intensify, the popular vote will likely be even more favorable to Warren (the threat of a third party eating away at her support is far less than it was to Clinton), Trump likely won't gain much (if any) from his 2016 base of support, and the electoral college will be competitive as it increasingly favors states that are unfavorable to Democrats like Warren.