UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That isn't quite what I was getting at.

Still, what does 'doing well' mean? Would be surprised - given the 2010 results even - if they didn't poll above average there in general, of course, but beyond that?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

(A classic example is Sheffield, Hallam, right? They've never chosen a Labour MP for years, if ever?)

You are correct.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll accept the possibility of concern over Yarmouth, but South Thanet isn't exactly a natural first-rank marginal (everyone was shocked when Labour held it in 2005), and North Thanet is a safe Conservative seat.

_{The idea that people who toy with voting UKIP in Westminster elections come mostly from the supposed 'bases' of the two main parties is pretty dubious, but I'll leave that argument for another day...}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It also needs to be remembered that not everyone who lives in a safe Labour seat votes Labour even most of the time...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even more than most places Birmingham 'does different' in local elections and has done since the 1960s. This isn't just with regards to the LibDems; the Tories are much stronger in the south of the city in at local level than in General Elections, for instance. This isn't going to change any time soon.

As to the specific issue of Yardley's bizarre electoral history, well, facing extinction in their inner city wards in the early 1980s, the Birmingham Liberals decided to slowly transfer their populist anti-city council shtick to the area which was marginal between the two main parties but not showered with attention. A new ward map was presumably a major factor. All of this involved actual councillors and longterm candidates in some cases.* Cutting a long story short, it worked. In terms of local politics it has been an absolute and adamantine stronghold since the early 1990s. It started to flow over into Westminster elections in 1992, but what was done locally has never been fully replicated, even if the seat is Hemming's for now. It is not impossible that he could lose his seat as his party leads in the area by thousands on the same day.

_{*The apparently eternal Paul Tilsley has been a councillor in suburban Sheldon since the late 80s, but had previously held a seat in Aston from 1968 until the mid 80s.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not unless he shoots a dog.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Backing from MPs for leadership candidates is rather fluid between leadership elections, to put it mildly (there is a marked tendency to coalesce around perceived favourites). In any case we shouldn't forget the PLP will matter less in the next leadership election than it ever has due to the new rules.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Even if many people fondly remember Michael Foot, I'm not sure if they fondly remember Michael Foot As Party Leader...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Labour Party does not do that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't that just until they do?

To an extent, yes. But it isn't just party culture; party rules have been written in such a way as to make it very difficult to challenge a sitting leader, which in turn makes it hard to force resignations. Palace coup style leadership changes are also made less likely by the widespread fear of factionalism (which remains a problem for Labour in local government, incidentally) and Labour's rather... er... byzantine party structure. Certainly ousting a leader before an election would be ridiculously difficult, unless they had managed to alienate literally everyone.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The best evidence that David Miliband would have been a poor leader is the fact that he failed to win the leadership.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour's name is considerably less ironic than certain other parties bearing that name. Take a ferry across the Irish Sea for details.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Labour Party was formed in 1900 to represent the industrial working class but they are now only a tiny proportion of today's workforce.

Strictly speaking it was formed to give Trade Unions and their members representation in parliament that was independent of the Liberal Party. Right from the beginning Labour always polled well with some groups of workers outside heavy manual jobs.

Anyway, the nature of class in the UK means that while not many people are employed in stereotypical industrial occupations, the class identities created by them have not gone away. The main electoral effect of deindustrialisation has been lower turnouts (which is partly a consequence of lower TU membership) and higher swings, rather than a dissolution of the old patterns.

In any case, the name is an important one that a lot of people are very loyal to.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

now Immigrants/CivilServants/Students/UnEmployed/NonWorkers/...)

Only the second of those groups (and parts of the first) vote in large numbers, and they don't vote as a group.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What did for David Miliband was the failure of certain unpopular supporters of his to keep shtum.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UNS will be even more irrelevant this time round.

Said people just before every single General Election since 1970...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Stranger things have been known, but right now it seems likely that UKIP only have a reasonable chance of gaining seats where they had substantial leads in either the 2013 or 2014 locals; I think the only Labour-held seat where that's the case is Grimsby.

A historical polling tendency - not a 'rule', just a tendency - to be aware of: it has usually been the case that the percentage of people expressing support for non-'mainstream' parties declines as the General Election gets closer.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do you see Lib Dems improving as the election gets closer? (Probably a first )

On the contrary, the general tendency was always for them to improve their polling figures in the runup to an election. Admittedly this was entirely because their share of media coverage also tended to improve in the runup to an election... and even more during it, due to rules about broadcast 'fairness'.* Of course their current polling woes are because they are unpopular and not because of a lack of coverage...

_{*UKIP may well run into trouble with this because although all parties are guaranteed coverage, minor parties - note here that UKIP have no MPs - are not alloted much.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The 1980s were different; the Alliance had many friends in the media and received much (glowing) coverage.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sir Keir Starmer is running for the Labour nod in open Holborn & St Pancras (Frank Dobson is retiring after what will be thirty six years) and has already been endorsed by what looks to be about half the London Labour establishment.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I must admit that I don't particularly like marginals polls as a concept

And you would be right to as their record is beyond atrocious.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2010 results in South Thanet...

Con 48, Labour 31.4, LDem 15.1, UKIP 5.5. Turnout of 65%. UKIP have polled strongly there, but let's not get ahead of ourselves...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't assume that a public target list is the only list of targets that exists. Dover - which certainly is a Labour target - is next door, of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The DUP is more-or-less openly for sale, of course.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In theory at least that's UKIP's most credible target in the country (and by some margin). Tories have to be careful with candidate selection.