Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I already posted it, but imo worth to post it again. The head of Zelensky’s Servant of the People party blames American FAKE NEWS.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1493939541710974982

[Dereich]

So, ground troops didn't actually invade.
Very minor egg on face for the US intelligence apparatus?

What’s particularly weird about this buildup is how many messages we’re getting from different sources. I don’t think any official message from a named person has said “today is the day.” I’m not sure we have official statements beyond hearing that the Russians are prepared to invade at some point soon and things like the embassy evacuation. We probably shouldn’t be giving unnamed officials speaking to The Sun the same credence and legitimacy as a speech by President Biden but it’s hard to weigh when it’s coming in so quickly.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So, ground troops didn't actually invade.
Very minor egg on face for the US intelligence apparatus?

Why would anyone take any intelligence agencies at face value...

[jaichind]

Let's say the USA had real intelligence that is pretty much a smoking gun on a Russian invasion.  

How should they handle it?  

One thing they should NOT do is to have "unnamed senior intelligence sources" tell the media and put it all out there.  Doing so merely embarrasses Russia and might provoke them to do something so they do not lose face to their own population.

What would make sense is a behind-the-scenes contact with someone high up in Russia and ideally Putin and show him the evidence.  Then say to Putin: We know, you know that we know and we know that you know that we know.  Let's cut this out because if you do we already have our own "men in black" on the ground in Ukraine and even Russia that could do all sorts of stuff.  Let's instead chat about why you want to do this and we can even bring in Ukraine to do some offline deals and compromises and diffuse this.  You will not get everything you want but an invasion will get you less.

Given this, I am convinced the USA only has circumstantial evidence as well as their projections on what is going on in Putin's mind.

[jaichind]

Another victory for Russia for this crisis going public is

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swift-off-russia-sanctions-list-state-banks-likely-target-us-eu-officials-2022-02-11/

"SWIFT off Russia sanctions list, state banks likely target -U.S., EU officials"

Now Russia knows that cutting Russia off SWIFT is not an option.  Again a public version of this crisis only serves to strengthen Russia's hand.

[Torie]

Another victory for Russia for this crisis going public is

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swift-off-russia-sanctions-list-state-banks-likely-target-us-eu-officials-2022-02-11/

"SWIFT off Russia sanctions list, state banks likely target -U.S., EU officials"

Now Russia knows that cutting Russia off SWIFT is not an option.  Again a public version of this crisis only serves to strengthen Russia's hand.

All those damn Euros think about is their bank accounts. Some Russian dude said taking away SWIFT was almost as bad as nuking Moscow, and in effect a declaration of war. And what percentage of the population has a clue what SWIFT is? The media assumes that percentage is co-extensive with being literate, since they assume that we all know what is means.  Apparently bank green eye shade types know what it means, and that is has something to do with their paycheck being drawn against good funds. See below.

"European lenders have expressed concern that banning Russia from SWIFT would mean that billions of dollars of outstanding loans they have in Russia would not be repaid."

[jaichind]

Another victory for Russia for this crisis going public is

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swift-off-russia-sanctions-list-state-banks-likely-target-us-eu-officials-2022-02-11/

"SWIFT off Russia sanctions list, state banks likely target -U.S., EU officials"

Now Russia knows that cutting Russia off SWIFT is not an option.  Again a public version of this crisis only serves to strengthen Russia's hand.

All those damn Euros think about is their bank accounts. Some Russian dude said taking away SWIFT was almost as bad as nuking Moscow, and in effect a declaration of war. And what percentage of the population has a clue what SWIFT is? The media assumes that percentage is co-extensive with being literate, since they assume that we all know what is means.  Apparently bank green eye shade types know what it means, and that is has something to do with their paycheck being drawn against good funds. See below.

"European lenders have expressed concern that banning Russia from SWIFT would mean that billions of dollars of outstanding loans they have in Russia would not be repaid."

SWIFT is really just a messaging system.  If Russia does get cut off from SWIFT they can switch to the PRC version of SWIFT that they have been developing and further push Russia into the economic grip of the PRC.  Still SWIFT is sort of a MAD weapon where both Russia and EU lose big time if Russia is shut off from SWIFT mostly due to impact on the energy trade.  Taking it off the table publically is still bad as now Russia knows how far you are willing to go which is not very far.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Another victory for Russia for this crisis going public is

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swift-off-russia-sanctions-list-state-banks-likely-target-us-eu-officials-2022-02-11/

"SWIFT off Russia sanctions list, state banks likely target -U.S., EU officials"

Now Russia knows that cutting Russia off SWIFT is not an option.  Again a public version of this crisis only serves to strengthen Russia's hand.

Biden is basically inviting Putin to invade Ukraine. Unbelievable 

[compucomp]

Another victory for Russia for this crisis going public is

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swift-off-russia-sanctions-list-state-banks-likely-target-us-eu-officials-2022-02-11/

"SWIFT off Russia sanctions list, state banks likely target -U.S., EU officials"

Now Russia knows that cutting Russia off SWIFT is not an option.  Again a public version of this crisis only serves to strengthen Russia's hand.

All those damn Euros think about is their bank accounts. Some Russian dude said taking away SWIFT was almost as bad as nuking Moscow, and in effect a declaration of war. And what percentage of the population has a clue what SWIFT is? The media assumes that percentage is co-extensive with being literate, since they assume that we all know what is means.  Apparently bank green eye shade types know what it means, and that is has something to do with their paycheck being drawn against good funds. See below.

"European lenders have expressed concern that banning Russia from SWIFT would mean that billions of dollars of outstanding loans they have in Russia would not be repaid."

It's totally reasonable that Europeans are not happy about having to bear the cost of economic sanctions dictated by the American defense and intelligence establishments that conveniently leave American firms largely unscathed.

[Person Man]

So, ground troops didn't actually invade.
Very minor egg on face for the US intelligence apparatus?

Why would anyone take any intelligence agencies at face value...

I mean, it could kind of be true. Richard Branson created his first working prototype for a spaceplane in 2004. He said he would start shooting millionaires into space five years later. It took until 2021 to actually send the first people. Most projects are like this where it takes about a month to do a week's worth of work.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Let's say the USA had real intelligence that is pretty much a smoking gun on a Russian invasion. 

How should they handle it? 

One thing they should NOT do is to have "unnamed senior intelligence sources" tell the media and put it all out there.  Doing so merely embarrasses Russia and might provoke them to do something so they do not lose face to their own population.

What would make sense is a behind-the-scenes contact with someone high up in Russia and ideally Putin and show him the evidence.  Then say to Putin: We know, you know that we know and we know that you know that we know.  Let's cut this out because if you do we already have our own "men in black" on the ground in Ukraine and even Russia that could do all sorts of stuff.  Let's instead chat about why you want to do this and we can even bring in Ukraine to do some offline deals and compromises and diffuse this.  You will not get everything you want but an invasion will get you less.

Given this, I am convinced the USA only has circumstantial evidence as well as their projections on what is going on in Putin's mind.

Your overall mentalities on this are quite smart.

[StateBoiler]

Let's say the USA had real intelligence that is pretty much a smoking gun on a Russian invasion.  

How should they handle it?  

Feed all information they have to the Ukrainian government, intelligence service, and military.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1494017619145502725

A senior official said President Volodymyr Zelensky was considering holding a referendum that could keep his country from joining NATO, fulfilling one of Mr. Putin’s key demands.

The prospects for such a vote were uncertain and ambiguous, and many Ukrainians were likely to bitterly oppose any sign of concessions to Russia, but the fact that it was being floated at all showed that Mr. Putin’s buildup of forces near Ukraine’s borders could enable him to achieve his objectives without launching a full-scale invasion.

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/mathieuvonrohr/status/1494017619145502725

A senior official said President Volodymyr Zelensky was considering holding a referendum that could keep his country from joining NATO, fulfilling one of Mr. Putin’s key demands.

The prospects for such a vote were uncertain and ambiguous, and many Ukrainians were likely to bitterly oppose any sign of concessions to Russia, but the fact that it was being floated at all showed that Mr. Putin’s buildup of forces near Ukraine’s borders could enable him to achieve his objectives without launching a full-scale invasion.

LMAO, this referendum wouldn't pass, the CIA will make sure of that. If it did pass though it would be the biggest L possible for the US on this issue.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Another victory for Russia for this crisis going public is

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swift-off-russia-sanctions-list-state-banks-likely-target-us-eu-officials-2022-02-11/

"SWIFT off Russia sanctions list, state banks likely target -U.S., EU officials"

Now Russia knows that cutting Russia off SWIFT is not an option.  Again a public version of this crisis only serves to strengthen Russia's hand.

All those damn Euros think about is their bank accounts. Some Russian dude said taking away SWIFT was almost as bad as nuking Moscow, and in effect a declaration of war. And what percentage of the population has a clue what SWIFT is? The media assumes that percentage is co-extensive with being literate, since they assume that we all know what is means.  Apparently bank green eye shade types know what it means, and that is has something to do with their paycheck being drawn against good funds. See below.

"European lenders have expressed concern that banning Russia from SWIFT would mean that billions of dollars of outstanding loans they have in Russia would not be repaid."

SWIFT is really just a messaging system.  If Russia does get cut off from SWIFT they can switch to the PRC version of SWIFT that they have been developing and further push Russia into the economic grip of the PRC.  Still SWIFT is sort of a MAD weapon where both Russia and EU lose big time if Russia is shut off from SWIFT mostly due to impact on the energy trade.  Taking it off the table publically is still bad as now Russia knows how far you are willing to go which is not very far.

Wasn't it already off the table weeks ago?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1493990148006109185

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1493964155547705351

[Silent Hunter]

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1493964155547705351

Lot of Israelis with relatives in Russia they can currently visit without a visa.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1493964155547705351

Lot of Israelis with relatives in Russia they can currently visit without a visa.

I believe, it has more to do with ME/Hamas/Syria/Iran than visas.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

While US is fearmongering, Putin does this>

https://twitter.com/nytimesworld/status/1493828248601567232

[Middle-aged Europe]

U.S. says Russia has recently added 7,000 more troops to the Ukrainian border despite promises of a withdrawal.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-russia-united-states-vladimir-putin-534fb1c355ff5f135ba0261cb1448c3c

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1493964155547705351

Lot of Israelis with relatives in Russia they can currently visit without a visa.

I believe, it has more to do with ME/Hamas/Syria/Iran than visas.

Probably, but I'm sure there's not no consideration of the visa issue. Remember that a member of the current governing coalition in Israel started as a Russian-speakers' interests party.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1493964155547705351

Lot of Israelis with relatives in Russia they can currently visit without a visa.

Bit weird to say it's an Israeli decision. Under U.S. ITAR, our government has to approve all exports of such items, even to countries we already exported to exporting to other countries. So we said export Iron Dome to Ukraine while the country in possession of the system didn't even want to export? That's going in reverse.

[GoTfan]

Honestly I'm convinced that Putin's desperately trying to use a diversionary foreign policy.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/pbump/status/1494162257655345153?s=20&t=396ywKAGDEETpzLZ...