Even if accurate, this would fall under the category of that Adam always complains about regarding Southern suburban voters coming home in the end. In which case this would point to Bredesen not getting much more then he is polling while Blackburn gets most of the undecideds.
This kind of reminds me of Illinois 2010 where Kirk would lead 40-38 in several polls, but many were very uncertain of him actually being ahead until he started polling 46% and above, and then he just barely won.
For what it's worth, TN undecideds usually make their mind up a lot sooner (and most polls of the state in past cycles have been just garbage, rather than indicating a late surge to the GOP). It's a bit different than the rest of "the South" - which I pretty much just consider to be GA, SC, MS & AL at this point.
I told Jambles months ago that if Bredesen was doing things right, the undecided pool here will stay relatively large until the end - because if he has a shot, it's going to take a lot of Bredesen '06/GOP-leaners to make it happen, and they're gonna be noncommittal until the end - so I don't necessarily think that a large undecided group means the poll is wrong or that they're a lock for Blackburn. The fact that Bredesen has held on for so long sort of reaffirms my original belief on this.
There was obviously movement in TN post-Kavanaugh, but I genuinely believe a lot of it was pissy Democrats protesting his proclamation of support for Bart. They're not going to vote against him or sit at home, though.
