Biggest unexplained WTF results you've seen?

[BigVic]

Indiana voting for Obama in 2008
Montana voting for Bill Clinton in 1996
Doug Jones winning AL-Sen (S) in 2017
Scott Brown winning MA-Sen (S) in 2010

Doug Jones winning has a pretty obvious explanation lol.

Roy Moore the R nominee. Luther Strange would've held onto the safe-R seat and won in 2020

[wnwnwn]

Montana used to be kind of volatile and competitive, at least until 2008.
Republicans won it by:
2,50% in 1960
9,01% in 1968
7,44% in 1976
5,87% in 1988
2,88% in 1996
2,38% in 2008

[Sir Mohamed]

Still stunning is that Lyndon Johnson got 66% of the vote in Alaska in 1964. It voted to the left of the nation that year, but never Democrat at the presidential level since.

It's a great result but not that surprising if you consider that Alaska was still a new state at the time, and close in 1960, and 1968.

Another similar one in that category was Hawaii being close in 1976.

Wasn't that also due to fear of WWIII as AK is close to Russia? Goldwater was seen as a warmonger in the 1964 campaign.

[wbrocks67]

Maine 2020 isn't that surprising when you consider that nearly half the voters voted for non-Collins candidates. She was pretty close to falling below <50. Problem for Gideon was the 3rd party candidates which apparently she was not able to win over. There should've been a much more concerted campaign to get them in the 1st round with the possibility that Collins could get over 50.

(i also think ME voters could also have a bit of pundit brain in that election too with the 'check on Biden' type thing, and I do think some unfortunately bought Collins' moderate act)

[Fancyarcher]

Still stunning is that Lyndon Johnson got 66% of the vote in Alaska in 1964. It voted to the left of the nation that year, but never Democrat at the presidential level since.

It's a great result but not that surprising if you consider that Alaska was still a new state at the time, and close in 1960, and 1968.

Another similar one in that category was Hawaii being close in 1976.

Wasn't that also due to fear of WWIII as AK is close to Russia? Goldwater was seen as a warmonger in the 1964 campaign.

Yes, though the circumstances of how this worked to such the effect that it did, could have been only as effectively doable as it was in the 60s.

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

I still don't understand Cruz winning the Maine Republican Caucus in 2016. The northeast was otherwise a poor region for him.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

I still don't understand Cruz winning the Maine Republican Caucus in 2016. The northeast was otherwise a poor region for him.

This. It makes no sense at all.

[TDAS04]

I still don't understand Cruz winning the Maine Republican Caucus in 2016. The northeast was otherwise a poor region for him.

Maine having a caucus instead of a primary might have been a factor.

Interestingly, Maine was also the only New England state that backed Bush over McCain in 2000.

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

I still don't understand Cruz winning the Maine Republican Caucus in 2016. The northeast was otherwise a poor region for him.

Maine having a caucus instead of a primary might have been a factor.

Interestingly, Maine was also the only New England state that backed Bush over McCain in 2000.

I know that Trump did worse in caucus states due to relying on voters who were not traditionally GOP. It just seems like Kasich would have been the non-Trump candidate who would have prevailed, or Maine would have voted like Massachusetts. I'm not sure why Maine Republicans would be significantly more conservative than Republicans in other New England states. The Bush/McCain vote indicates they randomly show tendencies of Republicans in the Western United States.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I still don't understand Cruz winning the Maine Republican Caucus in 2016. The northeast was otherwise a poor region for him.

Maine having a caucus instead of a primary might have been a factor.

Interestingly, Maine was also the only New England state that backed Bush over McCain in 2000.

I know that Trump did worse in caucus states due to relying on voters who were not traditionally GOP. It just seems like Kasich would have been the non-Trump candidate who would have prevailed, or Maine would have voted like Massachusetts. I'm not sure why Maine Republicans would be significantly more conservative than Republicans in other New England states. The Bush/McCain vote indicates they randomly show tendencies of Republicans in the Western United States.

Isn't Maine close to the country Cruz was born?

[Mexican Wolf]

The 2002 gubernatorial elections still seem very odd given the sheer number of governorships both parties flipped that year (10 from D to R, 11 from R to D). What makes it weirder is that both parties flipped seats in states that usually heavily favored the opposite party (Republicans picked up Vermont, Maryland, Minnesota, and Hawai'i at the same time that Democrats were winning Tennessee, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming).

Some of the individual races I can understand why they flipped, but overall I'm still not sure why so many states flipped both ways that year. The only other time since then where both parties gained multiple seats from each other was in 2010, but Republicans didn't win many states nearly as blue and Democrats didn't win many states nearly as red as they did in 2002.

[Schiff for Senate]

The 2002 gubernatorial elections still seem very odd given the sheer number of governorships both parties flipped that year (10 from D to R, 11 from R to D). What makes it weirder is that both parties flipped seats in states that usually heavily favored the opposite party (Republicans picked up Vermont, Maryland, Minnesota, and Hawai'i at the same time that Democrats were winning Tennessee, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming).

Some of the individual races I can understand why they flipped, but overall I'm still not sure why so many states flipped both ways that year. The only other time since then where both parties gained multiple seats from each other was in 2010, but Republicans didn't win many states nearly as blue and Democrats didn't win many states nearly as red as they did in 2002.

This!!

[Fancyarcher]

The 2002 gubernatorial elections still seem very odd given the sheer number of governorships both parties flipped that year (10 from D to R, 11 from R to D). What makes it weirder is that both parties flipped seats in states that usually heavily favored the opposite party (Republicans picked up Vermont, Maryland, Minnesota, and Hawai'i at the same time that Democrats were winning Tennessee, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming).

Some of the individual races I can understand why they flipped, but overall I'm still not sure why so many states flipped both ways that year. The only other time since then where both parties gained multiple seats from each other was in 2010, but Republicans didn't win many states nearly as blue and Democrats didn't win many states nearly as red as they did in 2002.

Bush being in office slowed down any potential acceleration of polarization for Democrats, even if the year benefited his party overall. Also states like Tennessee were not as red as they are now.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

The 2002 gubernatorial elections still seem very odd given the sheer number of governorships both parties flipped that year (10 from D to R, 11 from R to D). What makes it weirder is that both parties flipped seats in states that usually heavily favored the opposite party (Republicans picked up Vermont, Maryland, Minnesota, and Hawai'i at the same time that Democrats were winning Tennessee, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming).

Some of the individual races I can understand why they flipped, but overall I'm still not sure why so many states flipped both ways that year. The only other time since then where both parties gained multiple seats from each other was in 2010, but Republicans didn't win many states nearly as blue and Democrats didn't win many states nearly as red as they did in 2002.

Large number of open (no incumbent) gubernatorial races. The post 9/11 Rally 'Round the Flag effect wasn't as prevalent at the state level as it had been at the federal level. The economy was only slowly recovering from the '01 recession and the states were all having budget problems after the boom years of the 90s. It is worth noting though that of the races where an incumbent did run, only a handful lost.

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

2002 was one of those elections that did not predict the future but was a relic of the past like 1976. Postgrads voted Republican (weird time for Ruy Teixeira's book to come out), Catholics voted Democrat, suburbs voted to the right of rurals, the West was a tie, and New England Republicans did relatively well. All of this seems like it could not happen today because the opposite wing of the GOP is ascendant within the party.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I still don't understand Cruz winning the Maine Republican Caucus in 2016. The northeast was otherwise a poor region for him.

Maine having a caucus instead of a primary might have been a factor.

Interestingly, Maine was also the only New England state that backed Bush over McCain in 2000.

I know that Trump did worse in caucus states due to relying on voters who were not traditionally GOP. It just seems like Kasich would have been the non-Trump candidate who would have prevailed, or Maine would have voted like Massachusetts. I'm not sure why Maine Republicans would be significantly more conservative than Republicans in other New England states. The Bush/McCain vote indicates they randomly show tendencies of Republicans in the Western United States.

The libertarian/Tea Party faction was strong in Maine at the time, and Cruz was the best representative for them available.  Ron Paul had nearly won the Maine Caucus 4 yrs earlier.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Tyler County, West Virginia 1996.
Manistee County, Michigan 1920.

There have been threads on these two before, but nobody has been able to figure them out exactly.

I suspect some kind of error for Tyler WV.  The total vote is something like 1000 (or 25%) less than what one would expect given elections before and afterwards.

[wnwnwn]

Can someone explain me how the democrats won the Senate elections in NJ and MI in 1922?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Can someone explain me how the democrats won the Senate elections in NJ and MI in 1922?

Edwards was governor of NJ and his stance against Republican efforts to enforce Prohibition in the state gave him popularity among those who had become alienated with the party of Wilson.