Looking ahead to 2014 (user search)
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Author Topic: Looking ahead to 2014  (Read 2042 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: October 04, 2010, 11:10:09 PM »
Quote from: Addicted to Politics on October 04, 2010, 10:49:07 PM
Umm, way too far away to even attempt a prediction on what kind of year it will be.



Well, we would have a reasonable starting point of Republican gains in Congress in 2014 if Obama gets re-elected and Democratic gains in Congress if he does not.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2010, 08:10:07 PM »
Very qualitative ideas for the next few years:

2010: House: GOP (barely), Senate: GOP (barely)

Obama wins big in 2012

2012- House: Dems (by around the 2008 margin), Senate: Dems (barely)
2014- House: Dems (barely), Senate: GOP (barely)

Obama wins narrowly in 2012

2012- House: Dems (by around the 2006 margin), Senate: GOP
2014- House: Dems (barely) , Senate: GOP (at least 55)


Obama loses in 2012

2012- House: GOP (by the 2004 margin), Senate: GOP (at least 55)
2014- House: GOP (barely), Senate: GOP (barely)

An Obama win would bring in more than enough youth and minority turnout to flip the House back in 2012, but they will be fighting for their political lives in 2014.  If he barely wins, they won't be as ambitious and will hold on better in 2014.
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