Looking ahead to 2014

[Joe Biden 2020]

To 2014.  I know we're still 4 weeks from 2010 mid-terms, let alone starting 2012, but what about 2014?  With the big Democratic year in 2008, do you see a Republican year in 2014 or is it way too early to tell?

[Joe Biden 2020]

In 2014, I think it's going to be hard to find seats Democrats can win back. Almost all Republican-held seats are in the South and Mormon triangle. The only seats I can see Democrats winning is Kentucky if McConnell runs for reelection and Maine if Collins loses the primary. If Republicans have the White House and have low approvals, Georgia and Texas could also become competitive.

As for seats Republicans win, it all depends on the mood. Alaska has a great chance of switching, and Louisiana, Minnesota, and North Carolina all will probably be competitive, as will New Hampshire. Who knows after that?

2014 could also see at least 3-5 Democratic Senate retirements in blue(Atlas color)/swing states, in which I would find the Democrats being hard pressed to hold should Obama be President in 2014. Especially if he were to have the approvals he has now.

If Obama gets reelected, he'll likely have much higher approval ratings in 2014 as unemployment will likely be below 7% for the first time in six years and the economy will be back on track. 

Don't assume such as anything can happen economically between now and then, and if that is the case it will be a very hollow recovery with many effects of the recession still remaining in my opinion.

Then again, who knows?

If its enough for Obama to get reelected in 2012, the economy should be in pretty good shape by 2014. 

I figure Obama is going to get reelected more due to a horrible GOP opponent then anything else, as this year has shown. Never underestimate the Republican Party's ability to piss away winnable elections.

If the economy isnt good or isnt perceived to be good, Obama will lose.  Never has an incumbent won reelection in modern history when the economy wasnt perceived to be good.

In 1992, Bill Clinton was able to beat George H.W. Bush even with his scandals because the economy was perceived to be poor even though GDP grew at a brisk 4% pace that year.  Had Clinton run against Bush in a 1996 type economy or even 1988, he would have lost because of his scandals. 

Its all the economy.

Who was it that coined the phrase, "it's the economy, stupid"?